Ole Miss vs. Tulane CFP prediction: UPDATED Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, stats

Its good to be talking again about the Ole Miss Rebels and their play on the field as opposed to the circus off it as we look to the Rebels playoff game against the Green Wave of Tulane. This game is a rematch from earlier this season. Ole Miss dominated the Green Wave 45-10 on September 20 and have won 14 straight in this series. Tulane last defeated Ole Miss in 1988. Former defensive coordinator Pete Golding takes over the head coaching duties for the playoff game for Ole Miss. There is certainly pressure on him. That said, the primary focus is on Tulane and whether or not they can mount a more competitive challenge this time.

Lets dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, highlight a few players, and give our best bets for this first-round playoff game.

Game Details and How to Watch Tulane at Ole Miss

• Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
• Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
• Site: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
• City: Oxford, MS
• TV/Streaming: TNT/HBO Max/TruTV

Game Odds for Tulane at Ole Miss

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Tulane Green Wave (+650), Ole Miss Rebels (-1000)
• Spread: Tulane -17.5 (-108)
• Total: 57.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Ole Miss Rebels

Head Coach: Pete Golding (Interim)
2025 Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Offense Ranking: 8
Defense Ranking: 17
Strength of Schedule: 50

Ole Miss ripped through the regular season at 11–1 (7–1 SEC), finishing No. 7 in SP+ with 10.0 second-order wins, a profile that largely validated departed HC Lane Kiffin’s reputation for week-to-week offensive stress while remaining just a notch short of true national-title efficiency. The Rebels’ offense checked in No. 8 in SP+, driven by a Top 15 Success Rate (48.1%, No. 15) and 11th rated down-set conversion rate (79.6%). They rank Top 10 points per drive (3.20, No. 9), pairing tempo (74.8 plays per game, No. 6) with consistent efficiency rather than reckless explosiveness. Ole Miss was especially dangerous through the air, ranking 6th in passing success rate (50.9%), 10th in EPA per dropback and 4th in 20-plus-yard completion rate (23.1%), even as the run game remained more solid than dominant (No. 40 rushing success rate). Defensively, Pete Golding’s unit settled in as a respectable complement (17th), holding opponents to 1.71 points per drive (36th) and 5.20 yards per play (40th), though the Havoc profile was closer to average (15.8%, No. 75) than disruptive. In total, Ole Miss looks like a fully formed Playoff-caliber team, elite offensively, sturdy enough on defense, and validated by wins over Oklahoma, LSU, and their round one opponent, Tulane.

The Ole Miss Rebels Offense

Ole Miss fielded one of the nation’s most reliable and efficient offenses, finishing 8th in Offensive SP+ while pairing tempo (74.8 plays per game, 6th) with consistency rather than volatility. The Rebels ranked 15th in overall Success Rate (48.1%) and 11th in down-set conversion rate (79.6%), translating that efficiency into scoring with 3.20 points per drive (9th) and 43.4 yards per drive (3rd). The passing game was the clear engine, checking in at 6th in passing success rate (50.9%), 7th in yards per dropback (8.6), 10th in EPA per dropback, and 4th nationally in completions of 20+ yards (23.1%), stressing defenses vertically and on passing downs (PD success rate, 7th). On the ground, Ole Miss was functional but not dominant, ranking 40th in rushing success rate, 40th in EPA per rush, and 76th in stuff rate, leaning more on efficiency and spacing than raw line displacement. Overall, the Rebels’ offense blended pace, explosiveness, and conversion reliability into a top tier scoring unit. They’re elite through the air, steady on standard downs, and good enough situationally to carry Ole Miss to a Top 10 national profile.

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Offense: QB Trinidad Chambliss

Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss displaced opening day starter Austin Simmons and has been electric, throwing for 3,016 yards with an 18-3 TD-INT ratio while completing 65.5% of his passes and averaging a sharp 13.8 yards per completion. His efficiency profile is elite, posting 8.6 yards per dropback, a 9.9 ANY/A, and a nation-leading 86.0 Total QBR while keeping his sack rate down at just 3.5% with a 14.8% sacks-per-pressure mark. Chambliss consistently stressed defenses vertically and structurally, pairing a 48.0% passing success rate with an 85th percentile PFF Overall grade that fueled Ole Miss’ 9.0 yards per attempt team average. As a runner, he added legitimate dual-threat value with 523 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 106 carries, averaging 4.93 yards per rush and converting 29.2% of his attempts into first downs. Taken together, Chambliss’ blend of explosive passing, controlled risk management, and situational rushing production made him one of the most complete quarterbacks in the SEC.

The Ole Miss Rebels Defense

Ole Miss paired its high-powered offense with a credible defensive unit that finished 17th in Defensive SP+, anchoring itself on situational control rather than raw havoc. The Rebels have been mediocre against the run, ranking 75th in rushing success rate allowed and 62nd in stuff, but compensating by allowing just 2.76 yards per carry after contact (18th), forcing opponents into longer down-and-distance scenarios. While not a high-sack defense (53rd in sacks per dropback, 40th in pressure rate), Ole Miss limited explosive damage through the air by allowing just 5.7 yards per dropback (35th) and 13.1% completions of 20+ yards (30th). Red-zone execution was a defining strength, as the Rebels allowed only 3.90 points per scoring opportunity (33rd) and held opponents to a 56.3% red-zone touchdown rate (43rd) despite frequent possessions. Overall, this was a bend-but-functional defense that is effective on a down-to-down basis, ranking 34th in Success Rate allowed, and is sturdy enough situationally to support Ole Miss’ Top 10 national profile.

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Princewill Umanmielen

Linebacker Princewill Umanmielen has been one of the most disruptive edge defenders in the SEC, stacking 39 tackles with 11.0 havoc plays, 9.5 tackles for loss, and 6.5 sacks across 12 games. His pass-rush production jumped off the page, generating 33 pressures on 177 rushes for an elite 18.6% pressure rate, while creating six sacks and winning early with a 2.76-second average time to first pressure. Umanmielen was especially impactful in high-leverage moments, posting a 21.4% third-down pressure rate and consistently forcing offenses off schedule. Against the run, he remained assignment-sound and physical, logging a strong 81.6% of his tackles versus the run and adding seven credited run stops. The blend of edge burst, backfield finishing, and situational consistency made Umanmielen a true tone-setter for the Rebels.

Tulane Green Wave

Head Coach: John Sumrall
2025 Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Offense Ranking: 28
Defense Ranking: 68
Strength of Schedule: 70

Tulane delivered an 11–2 season under Jon Sumrall, finishing 7–1 in AAC play with a +10 turnover margin and an SP+ ranking of 42 that outpaced their 9.3 second-order wins, signaling a team that consistently closed games. The offense graded 28th in SP+ behind solid efficiency (45.3% success rate, 43rd EPA/play rank) and a balanced profile that leaned on down-to-down consistency rather than explosive volume, finishing 34th nationally in yards per play at 6.14. Defensively, the Green Wave were more uneven, ranking 68th in SP+ and 101st in defensive success rate, but they compensated with havoc (17.7%, 33rd) and elite turnover creation (24 takeaways, 8th). Tulane’s résumé was defined by strong AAC wins over Memphis, North Texas, and Duke, offset by decisive road losses to Ole Miss and UTSA that elicits questions about their national ceiling. Overall, this was a disciplined, opportunistic team that maximized field position and turnovers to outperform expectations.

The Tulane Green Wave Offense

Tulane’s offense powered an 11–2 season by finishing 28th in Offensive SP+, pairing solid efficiency with a balanced, quarterback-friendly structure under soon-to-be Florida HC Jon Sumrall and OC Joe Craddock. The Green Wave ranked 38th in overall success rate (45.3%) and 11th in passing success rate, leaning on a reliable aerial attack that averaged 7.7 yards per dropback (22nd) and a strong 9.3 adjusted net yards per attempt (37th). While the rushing efficiency was more workmanlike than explosive—69th in rushing success rate and 75th in yards per carry—the run game still set up favorable down-and-distance situations, with Tulane ranking 39th in standard-down success rate. Explosiveness showed up intermittently, as the offense finished 45th in 20+ yard play rate and 54th in yards per successful dropback, doing enough to punish defensive mistakes without living off chunk plays. The biggest limiter was situational execution, particularly in the red zone (100th in red-zone TD rate), but overall, this was a steady, Top 30 offense that consistently kept Tulane ahead of schedule and in position to win close AAC games. Will that translate against a top-flight SEC program like Ole Miss is the real question.

Tulane Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jake Retzlaf

QB Jake Retzlaff was the engine of Tulane’s offense, starting all 13 games and throwing for 2,862 yards with a 14–6 TD-INT line while posting a 62.4% completion rate and a respectable 8.9 ANY/A. He paired solid efficiency (49.4% passing success rate, 12.9 yards per completion) with excellent pocket management, absorbing sacks on just 2.2% of dropbacks and converting pressure into a low 6.7% sack-to-pressure rate. Retzlaff’s PFF profile reinforces that steadiness, as his 86.3 offensive grade and 80.2 passing grade came with controlled aggression (9.0 aDOT) and a commendable 74.5% adjusted completion rate. As a runner, he was a true dual-threat weapon, leading the team with 670 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on 110 carries while ranking first on the roster in rushing success rate (55.5%) and first-down rate per rush (45.5%). Taken together, Retzlaff’s combination of efficiency, ball security through the air, and high leverage rushing production explains why Tulane’s offense remained functional and competitive even when the surrounding efficiency metrics were uneven.

The Tulane Green Wave Defense

Tulane’s defense finished 68th in Defensive SP+, a unit that leaned more on disruption and timely takeaways than down-to-down efficiency during its 11–2 season. The Green Wave ranked 33rd nationally in overall Havoc rate (17.7%), driven by aggressive linebacker and defensive back play, but that chaos didn’t always translate into stops, as they sat 101st in defensive success rate and 95th in down-set conversion rate allowed. Against the pass, Tulane struggled to control efficiency, ranking 109th in passing success rate allowed and 77th in yards per dropback, with opponents frequently able to complete throws underneath and stay on schedule. The run defense was steadier, holding opponents to 36th in yards per carry allowed and 18th in yards per successful rush, though consistency wavered on early downs (91st in standard-down success rate allowed). Ultimately, this was a defense that bent often but compensated with takeaways—8th in turnovers forced and +10 in turnover margin—helping Tulane survive shootouts and close out AAC wins despite middling efficiency metrics.

Tulane Player to Watch on Defense: OLB Harvey Dyson III

OLB Harvey Dyson III was a high-impact edge presence over 13 games, compiling 44 total tackles with an excellent 88.0% tackle rate while keeping two-thirds of his stops against the run. He consistently lived in the backfield, pacing the defense with 11.0 tackles for loss and 7.0 sacks while contributing 13 total havoc plays. Dyson’s pass-rush efficiency backed up the production, as he generated 21 pressures on 152 rushes (13.8% pressure rate) with six sacks created and a forced fumble. His quick get-off showed up in timing metrics as well, reaching his first pressure in an average of just 2.49 seconds and producing pressure on over 15% of third-down rushes. Taken together, Dyson’s blend of edge-setting run defense, disruptive penetration, and reliable finishing made him one of the unit’s most complete defenders.

Tulane and Ole Miss: Team Stats and Betting Trends

• Tulane is 6-6-1 ATS this season
• The OVER has cashed in 4 of Tulane’s 13 games this season (4-9)
• The OVER has cashed in 6 of Ole Miss’ 12 games this season (6-6)
• Ole Miss is 7-5 ATS this season

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Jake Retzlaf UNDER 190.5 Passing Yards

In their first meeting, Tulane QB Jake Retzlaf was borderline helpless against Ole Miss’ ferocious pass rush, completing a paltry 5-of-17 passes for 56 yards with a long completion of just 17 yards. In their 48-26 loss to UTSA he only completed 14-of-28 throws with two interceptions. Ole Miss ranks 19th in Pass success rate allowed (36%) and completion rate (56%). With DC Pete Golding at the helm on an interim basis, he can move to protect his defense a little more now that he is running the show. With Ole Miss throttling Tulane 45-10 earlier in the year, I am taking Retzlaf to go Under his 190.5 passing yards line once again. 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Ole Miss and Tulane

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Ole Miss Rebels at -17.5.
• Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 56.5.

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