ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs LSU Tigers

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After a bye last week, the Alabama Crimson Tide are back on the field in Week 11 of the 2025 college football season against a familiar foe: the LSU Tigers.

Nothing says “welcome to November” like Alabama-LSU on the first or second Saturday of the month, depending on the year. Alabama (7-1 overall, 5-0 SEC) had a much-needed bye last week following a five-game stretch where the Crimson Tide defeated four top 25 opponents, plus picked up a dicey road win over unranked South Carolina.

Coach Kalen DeBoer’s team rallied from eight points down in the waning moments of the fourth quarter to push past the Gamecocks, 29-22, in its last game on Oct. 25 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia.

LSU (5-3, 2-4) had a much more interesting bye week than Alabama. The Tigers fired coach Brian Kelly a day after an embarrassing 42-25 home loss to Texas A&M in Baton Rouge.

The move to fire Kelly came as Louisiana governor Jeff Landry grew heavily involved in the decision-making. LSU athletic director Scott Woodward was also ousted. Frank Wilson was named interim coach for the remainder of the season.

Will Alabama beat LSU? ESPN’s prediction

Alabama is currently a 10-point favorite over LSU according to oddsmakers, but as always, ESPN analytics has its own odds for Saturday’s game.

ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index (FPI) ratings and other variables, gives Alabama an 80.9% chance to win and LSU a 19.1% chance.

The Crimson Tide are tied for No. 4 in the latest FPI ratings. Alabama has a 22.6 overall rating, down from 22.7 after its win at South Carolina. LSU has a 13.1 rating that ranks 21st.

Kickoff for Alabama-LSU is 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be televised on ABC.

Alabama is No. 4 in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and the first CFP rankings, unveiled on Tuesday; LSU is unranked.

Alabama football odds of reaching 2025 College Football Playoff

In the updated FPI ratings entering Week 11’s contest against LSU, Alabama’s chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff have risen to 93.0%. That’s up from 89.4% before its win at South Carolina.

The Crimson Tide are given a 54.1% chance of winning the SEC title (down from 57.1% two weeks ago), a 24% chance to reach the national championship game on Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami (down from 26.4% before the game at South Carolina), and an 11.6% shot of winning the national title (down from 14.1%).

Alabama trails the Ohio State Buckeyes (27.8), Indiana Hoosiers (27.4) and Oregon Ducks (23.7) in the latest FPI rakings. The Crimson Tide (22.6) are one spot ahead of Notre Dame (21.1) in the FPI.

SEC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI entering Week 11

What is ESPN College Football Power Index (FPI)?

ESPN explains:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU, 6:30 p.m., ABC
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m., ABC
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn, TBA

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating LSU in Week 11, per ESPN

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