Will the Ducks win in Week 11? See our bold predictions for Oregon football vs. Iowa
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OregoN football has gone undefeated in its last 10 road games.
Iowa has gone winless in its last 11 games against a ranked opponent.
Either both of those streaks will end on Saturday, Nov. 8, or both will remain intact when the No. 6 Ducks (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) face the No. 24 Hawkeyes (6-2, 4-1) at 12:30 p.m. Pacific in Iowa City at sold-out Kinnick Stadium.
The outcome will also provide some separtaion in the conference standings as Oregon, Iowa and USC – who the Ducks play on Nov. 22 in Autzen Stadium – are tied for fourth place with four games to go in the regular season.
“In my mind, we’re kind of in the third quarter of the season with what we’re facing,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said Monday, Nov. 3. “There’s some great teams we’re gonna see over the next few weeks and Iowa certainly sets that off.”
Oregon vs. Iowa scouting report
Why Oregon has an advantage: The Ducks have been superior to the Hawkeyes on offense this season – and every other in recent memory, to be honest – and that could be the difference-maker in a game that will feature two of the best defensive teams in the nation.
Led by quarterback Dante Moore and a punishing ground game, Oregon is ranked fifth nationally in points per game (41.3), second in yards per rush (6.26) and ninth in both rushing yards per game (237.0) and total offense per game (483.9 yards).
Defensively, the Ducks rank sixth in points allowed per game (13.5), fourth in total offense allowed per game (239.4), first in passing yards allowed per game (124.6) and 10th in third-down defense (30.3%).
Why Iowa has an advantage: The Hawkeyes are entering a month they have dominated for a long time. They are 21-2 in their last 23 games played in November. Iowa is also 17-3 in Kinnick Stadium in November since 2015.
Those records aside, the Ducks will also be facing a team ranked second nationally in total defense (234.9 yards allowed per game), fourth in scoring defense (12.4 points allowed per game), fifth in passing defense (151.0) and eighth in rushing defense (83.4).
Iowa’s offense is led by South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski, the only player in the nation to score a rushing touchdown in every game this season – an eight-game streak that’s the all-time longest by a Big Ten quarterback. His 11 total rushing TDs are fifth-most nationally and are the third-most among FBS quarterbacks. Gronowski averages 118.3 passing yards per game and has thrown for four TDs and four interceptions.
Oregon vs. Iowa injury updates
For Oregon: Quarterback Dante Moore left the Oct. 25 game against Wisconsin in the third quarter after taking a hit that left him bleeding from the nose. Lanning said after the game Moore could’ve returned if necessary and has said since then that Moore has been practicing with the team.
For Iowa: Out for the Hawkeyes Oct. 25 win against Minnesota were wide receivers Jarriett Buie and Dayton Howard, running back Brevin Doll and defensive lineman Luke Gaffney. Tight end Addison Ostrenga is out for the season. Starting left guard Beau Stephens was injured in the first quarter against the Golden Gophers but is expected to play against Oregon.
“Injury-wise, nothing new to speak of,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said Tuesday, Nov. 4. “I think we’re in pretty good shape relatively for this time of year. No big deal there.”
Oregon vs. Iowa: 4 bold predictions
Oregon football will not allow 100 yards passing … again
For the third straight game the Ducks will hold the opposing quarterback to fewer than 100 yards passing, a streak that began when they limited Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis to 79 yards on 8-of-25 passing, and then held Wisconsin’s Hunter Simmons to 86 yards on 7-of-21 passing. Oregon also held Oklahoma State to 67 yards passing and Oregon State to 80 earlier this season. The Hawkeyes have thrown for fewer than 100 yards three times this season and have eclipsed the 200-yard mark just once.
Oregon football will win if it holds Iowa to no more than 14 points
The Ducks have won 108 consecutive games when they’ve held their opponents to 14 or fewer points, which has happened in six of their seven wins this season. It’s also been the breaking point for the Hawkeyes this season as they lost both games in which their offense failed to score 14. Iowa lost 16-13 to Iowa State on Sept. 6 and then 20-15 to Indiana on Sept. 27. The offense scored 13 against the Hoosiers, with the final two points coming on a garbage-time safety as Indiana attempted to run out the final seconds of the game.
Oregon football will lose if it can’t play a disciplined game
Iowa rarely hurts itself, as it leads the FBS with fewest number of penalties (19) and penalty yards (183) this season. The Hawkeyes also have nine interceptions – all coming in the last five games – and 11 takeaways total and a plus-5 turnover margin. Iowa is also reliably good at creating hidden yards with big plays on defense and with its dynamic special teams. The Ducks are tied for 13th nationally in both number of penalties (38) and penalty yards (327) and have a plus-4 turnover margin with nine interceptions and two fumble recoveries.
Oregon football vs. Iowa score prediction
Oregon 24, Iowa 17
Chris Hansen covers University of Oregon football, men’s basketball, track and field, cross country and softball for The Register-Guard. You can reach him at chansen@registerguard.com.
This article originally appeared on Register-Guard: Oregon vs. Iowa predictions | Will the Ducks beat the Hawkeyes?
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