ESPN predicts the winner of Clemson football vs Florida State in Week 11

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The Clemson Tigers takes on rival Florida State in Week 11 of the 2025 college football season this Saturday. It’s an extremely rare occasion where neither team is playing for much more than bowl eligibility.

Two teams that make up arguably the ACC’s most competitive rivalry, Clemson (3-5 overall, 2-4 ACC) and Florida State (4-4, 1-4) have both hit the skids despite the high expectations that always surround both programs.

In the Tigers’ case, they’ve fallen from a preseason No. 4 ranking in the AP Top 25 poll and being a trendy pick to win the national championship, to near the bottom of the ACC standings. Clemson suffered its sixth straight loss to a Power Four opponent at home in last Saturday’s 46-45 loss to Duke.

The Blue Devils scored the winning touchdown and subsequent two-point conversion with 40 seconds left following a blown pass interference call on Avieon Terrell where ACC officials gave Duke a critical first down instead of what would have been a turnover on downs.

Clemson was fined $10,000 for coach Dabo Swinney’s comments on the officiating mess after the game. Swinney doubled down on his remarks this week, though he said officiating wasn’t the reason the Tigers lost the game.

All the same, Cade Klubnik played well against Duke by throwing for 385 yards and two touchdowns. True freshman running back Gideon Davidson showed promise by rushing for 51 yards on 12 carries (4.3 AVG), and receiver Antonio Williams hauled in 10 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. The Tigers amassed 560 total yards.

Florida State (4-4, 1-4) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 42-7 win over Wake Forest last Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium. The Seminoles started 3-0 and climbed to No. 7 in the AP poll before beginning ACC play 0-4.

Mike Norvell is facing a lot of pressure and buyout talk in Year 6 in Tallahassee. Before the win over Wake Forest, FSU had lost 10 of its last 11 ACC games since last season.

Who has the edge? ESPN’s prediction for Clemson vs. Florida State football

ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index ratings (FPI) and other variables, gives Florida State a 53.7% chance to win and Clemson a 46.3% chance.

Clemson actually rose one spot in the FPI rankings to No. 37 overall despite its loss to Duke, while Florida State ranks No. 24. The Tigers’ overall rating fell from 10.0 entering their Week 10 matchup with Duke to 8.1 after the loss. The Seminoles have an FPI rating of 11.4.

In the latest FPI ratings, Clemson is one spot behind the Kansas State Wildcats (8.2 FPI) and one spot ahead of the Iowa State Cyclones (8.0).

ESPN updates Clemson football final record, win probability after Duke loss

The Clemson Tigers are given a final record projection of 5.3-6.7, according to ESPN’s latest FPI ratings. The metrics give the Tigers a 7.3% chance of winning the last four games of their schedule, and just a 38% chance of reaching six wins to extend the school’s consecutive bowl game streak to 21 years.

Florida State is given a final record projection of 6.6-5.5. ESPN’s metrics give the Seminoles a 14.4% chance to win their final four games, and an 87.9% chance to reach six wins.

Clemson vs Florida State start time, TV channel

Clemson-Florida State is scheduled for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday at Memorial Stadium. The game will be shown on ACC Network. Wes Durham and Steve Addazio will have the TV call of the game.

ACC football teams, ranked by ESPN FPI entering Week 11

  • 17. Boston College Eagles (-6.8 FPI)
  • 16. Syracuse Orange (-5.5 FPI)
  • 15. North Carolina Tar Heels (-5.2 FPI)
  • 14. Stanford Cardinal (-4.8 FPI)
  • 13. California Golden Bears (-4.7 FPI)
  • 12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-1.6 FPI)
  • 11. Virginia Tech Hokies (-1.5 FPI)
  • 10. NC State Wolfpack (2.9 FPI)
  • 9. Virginia Cavaliers (6.9 FPI)
  • 8. Duke Blue Devils (7.5 FPI)
  • 7. Clemson Tigers (8.1 FPI)
  • 6. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9.0 FPI)
  • 5. Pitt Panthers (9.2 FPI)
  • 4. SMU Mustangs (9.5 FPI)
  • 3. Louisville Cardinals (10.7 FPI)
  • 2. Florida State Seminoles (11.4 FPI)
  • 1. Miami Hurricanes (17.8 FPI)

Top 10 college football teams, ranked by ESPN FPI entering Week 11

Here are the top 10 teams ranked by ESPN FPI heading into Week 11 of the 2025 college football season.

What are ESPN FPI ratings?

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Clemson football schedule 2025

All start times Eastern.

  • Aug. 30: vs. LSU (L, 17-10)
  • Sept. 6: vs. Troy (W, 27-16)
  • Sept. 13: at Georgia Tech (L, 24-21)
  • Sept. 20: vs. Syracuse (L, 34-21)
  • Oct. 4: at North Carolina (W, 38-10)
  • Oct. 11: at Boston College (W, 41-10)
  • Oct. 18: vs. SMU, (L, 35-24)
  • Nov. 1: vs. Duke (L, 46-45)
  • Nov. 8: vs. Florida State, 7 p.m, ACC Network
  • Nov. 14: at Louisville, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
  • Nov. 22: vs. Furman, TBD
  • Nov. 29: at South Carolina, noon, ABC or ESPN

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This article originally appeared on Clemson Wire: Clemson football odds of beating Florida State in Week 11, per ESPN

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