ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs Oklahoma in CFP

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The Alabama Crimson Tide are making their ninth appearance in the College Football Playoff, the most of any team since the four-team playoff began in 2014. The Tide will be on the road to face the Oklahoma Sooners in prime time Friday in Norman.

Alabama (10-3) is coming off a 28-7 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide were held to minus-3 rushing yards in the loss, with quarterback Ty Simpson throwing for 212 yards and completing 19 of his 39 passes.

Germie Bernard had a 23-yard catch-and-run touchdown with 12:33 to play in the fourth quarter for Alabama’s only points against Georgia. Simpson was sacked three times and threw an interception, and Alabama mustered just 209 total yards.

Oklahoma defeated LSU, 17-13, in the Sooners’ regular-season finale on Nov. 29 in Norman. John Mateer completed 23 of his 38 passes for 318 yards, including a 58-yard touchdown to Isaiah Sategna III with just over four minutes to play for the eventual game-winning score. Mateer was intercepted three times in the win.

Alabama and Oklahoma are meeting for the second time this season. The Sooners upset the Crimson Tide, 23-21, on Nov. 15 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Alabama committed three turnovers that led to 17 points, including an 87-yard interception return for touchdown by Eli Bowen.

Alabama is the No. 9 seed in the College Football Playoff and ranked No. 11 in the US LBM Coaches Poll; Oklahoma (10-2) is the No. 8 seed and ranked No. 8 in the top 25 polls.

The winner will advance to the CFP semifinals at the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day to face No. 1 Indiana (13-0).

Will Alabama beat Oklahoma in CFP? ESPN’s prediction

While oddsmakers have Oklahoma as a slight favorite over Alabama, ESPN analytics has its own odds for Friday’s game.

ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, sees the game as a virtual toss-up. It gives Alabama a 50.9% chance to win and Oklahoma a 49.1% chance.

The Crimson Tide are eighth in ESPN’s FPI ratings, down two spots from before the SEC title game. Alabama has a 20.2 overall rating, compared to 21.5 two weeks ago. Oklahoma has a 16.7 rating that’s No. 15 in ESPN’s metrics.

Alabama football odds of reaching CFP national championship

According to ESPN’s FPI ratings entering the 12-team College Football Playoff, Alabama’s chances of reaching the national championship game on Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami are 6.3%, down from 10.7% entering the SEC’s title game.

The metrics give Alabama a 2.6% shot of winning the national title, down from 4.4% before its loss to Georgia in Atlanta.

Alabama trails the Indiana Hoosiers (28.9), Ohio State Buckeyes (28.3), Oregon Ducks (25.2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25.0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (23.0), Georgia Bulldogs (21.9) and Miami Hurricanes (20.9) in the latest FPI ratings.

SEC football teams in CFP, ranked by ESPN FPI

Here’s a look at where the five SEC teams to reach the 2025 College Football Playoff sit in the FPI.

What is ESPN College Football Power Index (FPI)?

ESPN explains:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Alabama football vs. Oklahoma start time, TV information for CFP first-round game

Kickoff for Alabama-Oklahoma in the first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff is 7 p.m. CT Friday at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The game can be seen on ABC and ESPN. Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will call the game for ABC. Holly Rowe and Laura Rutledge will report from the sidelines.

Additionally, the Alabama radio feed of the game featuring Chris Stewart and Tyler Watts can be heard on SEC Network, which will feature a “Skycast” presentation of the game.

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma (L, 23-21)
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois (W, 56-0)
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn (W, 27-20)
  • Dec. 6: vs. Georgia (L, 28-7)
  • Dec. 19: at Oklahoma, 7 p.m.

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating Oklahoma in CFP first round, per ESPN

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