2026 Orange Bowl Prediction: Oregon vs Texas Tech CFP Quarterfinal
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Who doesn’t want to kick off the new year with something fascinating?
The 4 vs 5 matchup is supposed to be the best of the quarterfinal games by seeding, and the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl should be the most interesting of all the huge New Year’s Day showdowns.
Is Oregon ready to take its game up several notches after dominant-yet-loose blowout over James Madison?
Is Texas Tech ready to prove to the world that it’s the real deal, and is the Big 12 going to get something to chirp about after being an afterthought with the CFP types – the lack of interest in BYU was … interesting.
What Oregon and Texas Tech Must Do to Win the Orange Bowl
It’s the biggest game in the history of Texas Tech football, after winning the previous biggest game in the history of Texas Tech football in the dominant Big 12 Championship performance over BYU.
The program had never won more than 11 games in a season before this year, and now it has a shot at winning 13. But more than that, a win would be a huge moment in the new era of college football.
If Curt Cignetti showed that one coaching change could turn around an entire program and school, Texas Tech’s playing the NIL game perfectly gives hope to everyone who wants to invest in a winner.
Speaking of investing, Oregon was at the forefront of marketing, promotion, and bringing in the right players. It’s another program of means that plays the new game as well as anyone.
On the field, this should be a blast. Lots of offense, lots of energy, and lots to prove.
How To Watch Oregon vs Texas Tech
Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
@PeteFiutak
Why Oregon Will Win
Texas Tech hasn’t seen anything like Oregon and this talent level.
It hasn’t seen any quarterback this season close to the skill set of Dante Moore.
The Red Raiders didn’t play Cincinnati and quarterback Brendan Sorsby, and lost when dealing with Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt. No one on the Texas Tech schedule this season has the speed, power, and next-level skill like the Ducks will bring.
To have any shot at beating Texas Tech, though, you have to keep its elite defensive front from getting into the backfield on a regular basis. Oregon doesn’t go at warp speed level like it did several years ago, but it works with a good pace and tempo.
Moore gets the ball out of his hands in a hurry, but when he gets a chance to let the downfield plays develop, forget it.
James Madison isn’t Texas Tech, but it came into the first round game with one of the nation’s best defenses, and over the first 35ish minutes, Oregon’s offense played like the Dukes had nine men on the field.
And best of all for the Ducks, the defense got ripped to shreds by the James Madison offense.
It wasn’t just in garbage time when Oregon’s focus was already on the flight to Miami. The Duke offense was able to move well over the first part of the game – the Ducks looked and played a bit rusty.
They’re much, much better than they looked, playing like they were getting back to form and, yeah, not taking that game quite as seriously as they should’ve for a full four quarters.
Before allowing the most yards it had all season – and by a LOT, giving up more than 500 yards to JMU – Oregon’s defense had given up just 271 yards per game thanks to a terrific pass rush. However …
Why Texas Tech Will Win
Over the last two seasons, Oregon is 25-0 when it runs for 100 yards or more, and 0-2 when it doesn’t.
Oregon, welcome to the Jacob Rodriguez and the No. 1 run defense in the nation.
Again, no, Texas Tech hasn’t seen anyone this year with the talent and skill of Oregon, but it sure as shoot dealt with some amazing running games.
Navy led the nation in rushing. Utah was No. 2, averaging 270 yards per game, and it got stuffed like a Christmas goose by Texas Tech, coming up with just 101 yards on the ground.
Arizona State had a great ground attack, and it was held to 2.1 yards per carry and just 75 yards.
Only Kansas State averaged more than 3.4 yards per carry against this brick wall of a D, and it’s also the only team to gain more than 103 yards – and that’s only because Wildcat quarterback Avery Johnson took off for two decent scoring dashes, and Texas Tech still won 43-20.
So far this season, Oregon hasn’t been great at being patient. It had a hard time getting going at Penn State – back when Penn State was fully functional – and it needed everything to pull out the double-overtime win.
Indiana dictated the tempo in Eugene, and won, Iowa slowed the game down to a crawl at times, and it was a fight for the Ducks to pull off the 18-16 win.
Texas Tech moves. It’s not going to slow the momentum down, but the defense forces teams to play its style.
It never let Utah do what it does well. West Virginia never got its style of play off the ground, Kansas had to keep chucking it because the running game didn’t go anywhere, and BYU did a flat load of nothing in two games.
Oregon won’t be able to go Oregon.
Oregon vs Texas Tech Prediction, Betting Lines
No, this won’t be like the fascinating defensive war between Miami and Texas A&M, but that’s only because there’s absolutely zero chance the respective Oregon and Texas Tech offenses play scared and not to lose.
However, this shouldn’t be a firefight.
America, you haven’t been paying attention. Welcome to David Bailey, Romello Height, and if you haven’t seen him yet, Jacob Rodriguez. This Texas Tech defense is the real deal, and it’s about to show it.
This should be more interesting and offense-oriented than Oregon’s win over Iowa, and it should be more like the Penn State game with plenty of bending without a ton of breaking.
Oregon will have one final drive to pull this off. And then, Dante Moore, welcome to David Bailey, Romello Height …
Texas Tech 26, Oregon 23
Line: Oregon -1.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 5
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: 2025 Cotton Bowl Prediction: Ohio State vs Miami CFP Quarterfinal
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 21, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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