USA TODAY Sports' early prediction for Alabama vs Indiana in Rose Bowl

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The Alabama Crimson Tide will face the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day in the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff.

As recently as a few months ago, such a matchup at a venue like the Rose Bowl would have seemed like a wild simulation from EA Sports’ back-from-the-dead college football video game franchise.

In reality, Indiana (13-0) is ranked No. 1 and is the only unbeaten team left in major college football. Alabama (11-3) hobbled to the finish line to reach the playoff, then shut up some of its loudest critics by scoring 27 straight points against the Oklahoma Sooners to erase a disastrous start for a 34-24 win in Norman.

Ty Simpson threw two touchdowns to Lotzeir Brooks, the Tide took advantage of big special teams misfires by Oklahoma, and finally established a pulse at running back with Daniel Hill to complete their comeback and advance to the quarterfinals in Pasadena — some 100 years to the date Alabama first played in “The Granddaddy of Them All.”

The same day Alabama was whooped by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, Indiana knocked off the Ohio State Buckeyes, 13-10, in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown in the Big Ten’s title game in Indianapolis.

Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza wrapped up the Heisman Trophy with his performance (15 of 23 for 227 yards, one touchdown) against Ohio State, converting a third-and-6 with a late 33-yard strike to effectively seal the win for Indiana.

With AP Coach of the Year Curt Cignetti leading a historic turnaround in Bloomington, Indiana has the nation’s eighth-ranked offense (6,146 yards in 13 games). Better still, it is sixth nationally in total defense with only 257.2 yards allowed per game on average. The Hoosiers’ 27.6-point average margin of victory is second behind only Texas Tech.

Can Alabama knock off Indiana in Pasadena? Here’s what USA TODAY Sports’ national analysts are saying.

Who has the edge? USA TODAY Sports predicts Alabama vs Indiana winner

On Sunday, USA TODAY Sports’ team of college football analysts unveiled their early CFP quarterfinals predictions. Here’s who each of the three members predicted to win the Rose Bowl.

USA TODAY Sports’ Matt Glenesk, an Indiana graduate, said:

“Indiana 28, Alabama 17: Indiana has won 13 games this season. The Hoosiers won 13 games combined in my four years on campus. I still approach every IU game with a heavy dose of skepticism. That said, I thought Indiana would beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, and I’ve got this feeling it might knock off another of college football’s elite. Alabama is a flawed team, and I’m trusting Curt Cignetti and coordinators Bryant Haines and Mike Shanahan to exploit them.”

Analyst Zac Al-Khateeb also sees a similar final score between the Tide and Hoosiers.

“Indiana 27, Alabama 17: Alabama snuck its way into the 12-team CFP field after getting walloped in the SEC Championship game (to the consternation of many). The Crimson Tide were perhaps the story of the first round with their record-tying 17-point comeback to beat Oklahoma, but Alabama’s lack of a run game will catch up to the Crimson Tide vs. Indiana’s staunch defense.”

USA TODAY Sports’ Craig Meyer sees a one-score game in Pasadena that tilts in Indiana’s favor.

“Indiana 24, Alabama 19: We all saw what happened last season when a Big Ten team with an extra week-and-a-half of rest found itself in the Rose Bowl against a talented opponent with an embattled coach coming off a much-needed first-round win. This Alabama squad isn’t last year’s Ohio State team, though. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb’s offensive ingenuity will help the Crimson Tide keep it close, but their lack of a viable and consistent run game will crush it against one of the country’s best defenses.”

Alabama football vs. Indiana: kickoff time, TV channel for Rose Bowl

Alabama-Indiana is scheduled to kick off at 3 p.m. CT on New Year’s Day. The game will be televised on ESPN.

Alabama football schedule 2025

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma (L, 23-21)
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois (W, 56-0)
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn (W, 27-20)
  • Dec. 6: vs. Georgia at SEC Championship Game (L, 28-7)
  • Dec. 19: at Oklahoma, (W, 34-24 in CFP first round)
  • Jan. 1: vs. Indiana (CFP Quarterfinals, Rose Bowl)

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating Indiana in CFP upset, per experts

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