2025 Isleta New Mexico Bowl Prediction: San Diego State vs North Texas
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San Diego State and North Texas were two fun teams this season for very, very different reasons, creating what should be an interesting Isleta New Mexico Bowl.
The Aztecs were an overtime play in this stadium against New Mexico away from playing for the Mountain West title. The Mean Green were a loss to Tulane in the American Conference Championship away from dealing with Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff.
What San Diego State and North Texas Each Must Do to Win
San Diego State was supposed to be fun and exciting under Sean Lewis. The creator of the FlashFast offense at Kent State was bringing aboard the AztecFast attack to Snapdragon, but instead, this year’s team had one of the best defenses in America.
The Aztecs are going for their first bowl win since 2021.
On the total opposite end of the spectrum, North Texas had one of the nation’s best offenses. It went 1000 miles per hour, was amazing at cranking up yards in chunks, and it would’ve given Ole Miss – or, maybe, Oregon – a better CFP game than Tulane or James Madison, respectively.
The Mean Green haven’t won a bowl game since 2012 and are just 2-11 all-time in postseason games.
How To Watch San Diego State vs North Texas
Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
Game Time: 5:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
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– Bowl Schedule, Predictions, Lines
Why North Texas Will Win
The San Diego State defense might have been a killer, and the ground game was great, but the offense all worked because the other side of the ball was amazing.
The attack could go conservative because, in most games, ten points got the job done.
That’s not going to cut it against the Mean Green.
The Aztecs lost defensive coordinator Rob Aurich to Nebraska, and several key stars will almost certainly be transferring or opting out for the NFL.
The top receivers – hurt most by the loss of Jordan Napier – have been out for a while, and quarterback Jayden Denegal is getting his banged up shoulder operated on.
Even if SDSU was full go, it had problems this year with high-powered offenses and big passing games. It didn’t face a lot of them, and even with the new parts in place, the North Texas offense that was No. 2 in America in passing will keep on winging it. However …
Why San Diego State Will Win
San Diego State might be missing some guys, but North Texas lost head coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State, star quarterback Drew Mestemaker is in the portal, and – this will be updated before gametime – there should be a whole slew of key guys out.
No one feasted on backup quarterbacks like San Diego State did this season, dominating offenses that had the No. 2 or 3 guy in – half the Aztec games were against the reserves, partly thanks to the defense’s own doing.
Star running back Lucky Sutton is back for next year, backup quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. is dangerous on the move, and this won’t be a hard game plan for the Aztecs.
Run against one of the nation’s worst run defenses, keep running, control the clock, and don’t stop running.
No, the Aztecs won’t have their superstar defensive players, but this is a nasty bunch that should do okay in a next-man-up sort of way.
North Texas vs San Diego State Prediction, Betting Lines
Which side can adapt and adjust faster?
North Texas has more moving parts. For its offense to work, the timing has to be perfect, like it was early on in the American Championship against Tulane. But when it’s off just a little bit – like it was over the last 50 minutes of that Tulane game – it all breaks down.
San Diego State is easy. Again, it’s going to run, North Texas won’t be able to stop it, and it won’t always be pretty.
The Aztecs allowed ten points or fewer in eight of the wins, and weren’t even close against Hawaii or Washington State – who, by the way, got destroyed by UNT 59-10 – when those two got hot with the passing game early on.
Not to be sheepish here, but pay attention to the momentum from the start.
If the North Texas passing game is on after the first two drives, uh oh. San Diego State won’t have a prayer of coming back.
If the Aztec ground game is rolling, and the Mean Green passing game is off, uh oh. SDSU will dominate the clock, and it’ll sit on the ball in one of the fastest games of the bowl season.
Again, San Diego State has fewer massive adjustments to make, and it has its head coach in place, so …
San Diego State 26, North Texas 24
Line: North Texas -3.5, o/u: 53.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1
Must See Rating: 3.5
College Football Playoff Predictions
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs Indiana
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs Miami
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs Texas Tech
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Ole Miss
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: 2025 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Prediction: Fresno State vs Miami University
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 23, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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