Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State Prediction: Arizona Bowl Game Preview
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Miami (Ohio) is in a familiar game against an unfamiliar opponent this bowl season. The RedHawks return to the Arizona Bowl for the second year in a row, where they will face Fresno State for the first time.
The Bulldogs (8-4) are making their fifth consecutive appearance in a bowl game under a fourth different coach as Matt Entz’s success continued in his first season in charge at the FBS level. Miami (7-6) is also making a fifth straight trip to a bowl under coach Chuck Martin. The RedHawks returned to the MAC Championship Game this season, but they lost again.
Miami weathered two midseason quarterback changes, from Dequan Finn to Henry Hesson and then to Thomas Gotkowski. Martin’s group made its hay on defense and still kept its head above water on the offensive side despite the turnover.
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Fresno State also made an in-season change under center as E.J. Warner, the son of Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, was benched for Carson Conklin. Warner later regained the starting job and is expected to lead the team in his first postseason appearance.
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State Odds, Details
Location: Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 27 at 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: The CW
Spread: Fresno State -5.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Announcers: Thom Brennaman, Will Blackmon
Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State: Keys to Victory
Why Miami (Ohio) Will Win
Two of the RedHawks’ best offensive showings came in the games in which Gotkowski saw the most action. Despite his struggles against Western Michigan in the MAC title game, Gotkowski flashed against Buffalo and Ball State. The freshman’s accuracy still leaves something to be desired, but he demonstrated that he was capable of hitting big plays and making plays with his legs, too.
Gotkowski will be without his best weapon, as field-stretching wide receiver Kam Perry is in the transfer portal. But Cole Weaver, who led the team in receptions, is available along with running back Jordan Brunson, whose best game of the season coincided with Gotkowski’s best against Buffalo. Fresno State’s defense is a tough assignment for the freshman, but Entz’s group will be shorthanded in the secondary. Having All-MAC first-team kicker Dom Dzioban is also an advantage — he’s only missed once inside of 50 yards this season.
For as up and down as Miami’s offense was, Martin’s defense consistently came to play. In MAC play, only one opponent cracked 30 points, and the RedHawks finished among the top three in the conference in total yards and points allowed per game. That unit will be shorthanded with defensive end Adam Trick in the transfer portal, but defensive back Eli Blakey should suit up for a group that forced 20 turnovers this season.
Why Fresno State Will Win
The Bulldogs’ defense, even shorthanded, is the best unit in this game. Fresno State picked off 19 passes, which is tied for the fourth most in the FBS. And even though Gotkowski has yet to throw a pick, his accuracy issues combined with the Bulldogs’ ball-hawking abilities make that a likely occurrence in the bowl game.
Fresno State held half of its opponents under 20 points and was particularly stout against the pass. The Bulldogs rank among the top 10 teams in the nation in fewest passing yards allowed per game, a strength that should still translate if top defensive back Al’zillion Hamilton does not play.
The offense has a higher baseline with Warner under center than without him. Fresno State was shut out in the first game after he was benched. Still, his 11 interceptions are an issue for the passing game. No receiver on the team has cracked 500 yards this season, but Josiah Freeman is easily the No. 1 option. The running back duo of Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson could play a big role against Miami with their contrasting play styles. Luke is the home run threat and receiving back, while Donelson picks up tough yards between the tackles. Avoiding turnovers and controlling the clock is a recipe for success for the Bulldogs.
Arizona Bowl Prediction: Fresno State 24, Miami (Ohio) 17
After dropping their first bowl game in over a decade last December, the Bulldogs are in prime position to start a new winning streak against the RedHawks. Warner must take care of the ball, but he’s backed by a stout defense and underrated run game that can afford him a mistake or two. Just like the matchup with Western Michigan, Fresno State’s defense will be too tall a task for Gotkowski to pull off an upset.
ATS: Fresno State -5.5
O/U: Under 42.5
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 27, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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