Georgia football vs Mississippi State scouting report, bold predictions, injury updates
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If Georgia football coach Kirby Smart had his way, outcomes each Saturday wouldn’t have to come down to crunch time in the fourth quarter.
His most dominant teams could dial it back and let backups take over late in games.
Only the Kentucky blowout has been like that the last six games, but tight games have become the norm not just for No. 5 Georgia but throughout the SEC.
“I don’t believe in playing with fire,” Smart said. “But if I could just write the script and say, yeah, let’s go up by 14, let’s go up by 21, I don’t write the script. So the script kind of plays out. I know that our kids are not uncomfortable playing from that.”
We’ll see how things go on Saturday Nov. 5 at Mississippi State.
The other Bulldogs have had their share of one score games as well, losing in overtime to Tennessee and Texas and by two to Florida before beating Arkansas last Saturday.
“Thinking about where we were a year ago today and what the product looked like in comparison to what the product looks like today is opposite ends of the spectrum,” second-year coach Jeff Lebby said. “We haven’t gotten the results we wanted non-stop. But our football team and our belief and the way we’re playing the game is a Mississippi State football team. I’m proud of that.”
Georgia vs. Mississippi State predictions
This matchup at one point looked like a trap game on the schedule sandwiched between Florida and Texas.
After all, Georgia has won five straight against Mississippi State and 14 of the last 15.
A year ago, Georgia’s 41-31 win was a tighter game than expected with 385 yards passing against Glenn Schumann’s defense.
Georgia is 5-1 in the SEC. Mississippi State is 1-4.
Yet the visitors are favored by just 8 ½ points.
“They’ve got no quit in them, these guys have competed,” Smart said. “They have been in every game they’ve played.”
Even in a 31-9 loss to Texas A&M, Mississippi State trailed just 7-3 until under 4 minutes left in the third quarter.
“They’ve had several games they should have won, they could have won, but they didn’t,” Smart said. “Obviously it didn’t slow them down.”
Georgia is 5-2 all-time in Starkville including a 45-19 win in 2022 in Smart’s only trip there as Georgia’s coach.
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Georgia vs. Mississippi State scouting report
Why Georgia has an advantage: Even with its cowbells clanging, playing in Davis-Wade Stadium won’t be a more hostile environment than Tennessee’s Neyland Stadium or Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Bulldogs notched road wins in both of those venues and last week in Jacksonville against Florida. The maroon Bulldogs snapped their 16-game SEC losing streak against Arkansas last week. How will they handle coming off a conference win for the first time in two years?
Why Mississippi State has an advantage: On the flip side of snapping their long SEC losing streak, Mississippi State’s confidence level could be sky-high for a team that already was hanging with some of the upper-tier SEC teams. Lebby said his team can see “how it looks when we go close it out and leave no doubt. There are so many other situations inside the game that maybe you’re not in that situation at the end of the game. That is something we are constantly stressing, as well. To be able to point to the tape and say man these plays are what gives us the ability to have a happy locker room is huge.
Georgia vs. Mississippi State injury updates
Georgia: Safety Kyron Jones (foot, out), tight end Ethan Barbour (ankle, out), wide receivers Colbie Young (leg, out) and Talyn Taylor (upper-body, out), DL Jordan Hall (knee, out), CB Demello Jones (elbow, questionable).
Mississippi State: CB Jett Jefferson (out), DL Will Whitson (out), OL Brennan Smith (out), OL Blake Steen (out), OL Albert Reese (doubtful), S Jahron Manning (probable).
Georgia vs. Mississippi State score prediction
Georgia 34, Mississippi State 24 The Bulldogs scoring has fluctuated every SEC game, from 44 to 21 to 35 to 20 to 43 to 24. So it’s time to top 30 again. Mississippi State ranks 14th in the SEC in scoring defense in conference games at 35.0 points per game. Georgia’s offense has a decided advantage against a defense that has given up 172 rushing yards or more in three of its last four games.
Georgia vs. Mississippi State scouting report: What we’re watching
Georgia’s defensive front: Georgia lost defensive lineman Jordan Hall early in the Florida game with a knee injury and he’s expected out for an extended period of time. He had 12 tackles including 2 for loss this year.
Hall started every game this season.
“It creates No. 1, an energy void,” Smart said. “He’s probably our most energetic guy, hardest playing guy in terms of cover down, FPE (fire, passion and energy) and just the attitude and real demeanor and leadership he brings.”
Smart said Georgia will “have to spread things out more,” in Hall’s absence in terms of playing more guys.
One player in line for more snaps with Hall sidelined is Nnamdi Oboko who has 5 tackles and a sack.
“He’s going to probably play a little more of a role now,” Smart said. “He’s gotten better and better at striking blocks. …He was a big boost the other night because he’s very good at block recognition. He understands leverage. He strikes and gets off blocks.”
Said defensive lineman Joseph Jonah-Ajonye: “They really recruited him here to play first down and second down, but he’s been turning a lot of heads in the pass rush. I feel like that’s what we’re going to use him for.”
Freshman JJ Hanne also saw an increase in snaps after Hall went down.
Mississippi State WR Anthony Evans: The move to Starkville has worked out quite well for Evans who returned punts and kicks for Georgia but had just 9 catches for 88 yards and no touchdowns last season.
Evans had a 52-yard run against Mississippi State last year and went 16 yards on an end around against Arkansas.
He’s thriving as a wide out now, leading Mississippi State with 52 catches for 652 yards and 4 touchdowns and averaging 12.4 yards on punt returns.
“He’s played really well,” Smart said. “He’s explosive, fast, a vertical threat, a quick game threat, and blocking well. He’s always been a good returner and he’s everything that we thought he was. He’s a really good football player that has grown, gotten better, and as you grow up and get better, you improve and he’s done that, and he’s playing at a really high level.”
Georgia secondary vs. Brennan Thompson: Mississippi State likes to take deep shots in the passing game.
Brenen Thompson is a target Georgia’s secondary will need to key in on.
The 5-foot-9, 170-pound Oklahoma transfer has 41 catches for 716 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 17.5 yards per catch.
“Brenen Thompson is a force to be reckoned with, he is the fastest guy I’ve seen on tape probably in multiple years,” Smart said. “I can’t remember the last time I saw somebody this explosively fast and dynamic as this guy is.
Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor: Mississippi State can bring a different dimension at quarterback when it brings in Kamario Taylor for Blake Shapen.
The 6-foot-4, 230-pound freshman rushed for 66 yards and a touchdown on 5 carries against Arkansas and threw a touchdown pass as well.
“He’s big, talented, athletic,” Smart said. “He’s a very bright talent, and he’s a good football player.”
Georgia can counter with linebacker CJ Allen who had 13 tackles and helped limit Florida QB DJ Lagway to 24 rushing yards on 10 carries, but he did go 26 yards on one play.
Bold predictions for Georgia football vs Mississippi State
Gunner Stockton’s legs again will make a difference
Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green rushed for an 8-yard touchdown last week against Mississippi State. Texas A&M’s Marcell Reed, Florida’s DJ Lagway and Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar have also found the end zone on quarterback runs.
Gunner Stockton gives Georgia the run-pass threat with scrambles and designed runs. He has rushed for 290 yards and 7 touchdowns this season.
“Just an incredible competitor,” Lebby said. “Just a guy that’s continued to make plays when he’s needed to make plays the most. He’s able to extend. They use him situationally in the run game and he has. He’s found ways to make the plays to go win the game. You can just tell he’s got great command of what they’tre doing every snap.”
Georgia’s defense will get to Blake Shapen
Really.
Shapen was sacked 7 times by Texas two weeks ago and twice last week against Arkansas.
Mississippi State has allowed the second most sacks in the SEC and ranks tied for 129th nationally in that category with 29.
Georgia only has 8 sacks in eight games, but Lebby said the defense is still affecting the quarterback.
“Maybe they haven’t created the sacks this year,” Lebby said, “but they way they’re playing situationally, how they’ve affected the quarterback, how they’ve moved him off his sport, how they’ve been in a guy’s face nonstop is very evident on tape.”
Mississippi State will get some explosive plays on offense
It may feel like Georgia’s defense has given up a lot of big plays, but the numbers say otherwise as Smart pointed out.
Georgia ranks tied for 13th in the nation in plays of 30 or more yards allowed overall, according to cfbstats.com. Mississippi State is second in the SEC and tied for 7th nationally in plays of 40 or more yards with 16 and 29th for 30 or more yards with 21.
Georgia’s pass plays allowed of 30 or more yards allowed does rank tied for 48th with 10. Mississippi State is 6th with 22 pass plays of 30 or more yards.
“To me, they are one of the most explosive and dangerous offenses in the country,” Smart said. “They can score in seconds.”
Smart described the offense as an attacking style with tempo.
“You’ve got to stop the run and you can’t let them behind you and you’ve got to tackle well,” Smart said.
Smart said he saw Mississippi State receivers running free on tape behind defenses on passes that didn’t connect.
Zachariah Branch will make a big play in the return game
We may have predicted this before, but the one area where Branch hasn’t popped a huge play is in the return game.
Mississippi State offers an opportunity. It gave up a 79-yard punt return for touchdown two weeks ago to Texas.
Branch was a freshman All-American at USC as a returner two years ago. His longest punt return this season is 24 yards and longest kickoff return is 28.
He’s been everything Georgia could have hoped for as a receiver, leading the team with 45 catches for 474 yards and two touchdowns.
This article originally appeared on Athens Banner-Herald: Georgia vs. Mississippi State scouting report, score prediction
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