Texas Tech football hosts BYU: Scouting report, prediction for Top 10 Big 12 showdown

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The biggest football game in Lubbock in nearly two decades is upon us. A Top 10 battle between Texas Tech football and BYU. Major Big 12 Championship and College Football Playoff implications abound. The national spotlight on ABC. ESPN’s College GameDay in town.

So much to process, and then there’s the actual football of it all. With four weeks left in the regular season, everything is still on the table for the ninth-ranked Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1) and eighth-ranked Cougars (8-0, 5-0) but Saturday’s result will dictate quite a bit whichever way the game goes.

On the field will be two of the top-scoring offenses and defenses in the nation, each trying to prove they’re the superior unit on the Jones AT&T Stadium field. Only one can come out on top, but who will it be?

Let’s break down the game from all angles, from key matchups to stats and players to know and, of course, predicting what the final score will eventually be.

Matchup to watch: Texas Tech football’s run defense vs BYU‘s rushing offense

For the sake of argument, we’re going to assume BYU’s leading rusher LJ Martin, a one-time Texas Tech commit, will take the field and be healthy as a horse.

Martin, who is reportedly on track to play, is a bruiser who is difficult to bring down. The El Paso native has registered five games of 100 rushing yards or more and totaled 789 yards on the ground.

Texas Tech boasts the top-ranked rushing defense in the country. While BYU averages 216.6 yards per game on the ground, the Red Raiders are surrendering just 74.6. They’re especially stingy against running backs. Arizona State‘s Raleek Brown has the most rush yards against Texas Tech, finishing with 69. Asking Martin to carry the load, healthy or not, may not be the best idea.

BYU’s other rushing option is freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who is second on the team with 408 yards and has a team-best nine rushing touchdowns. Tech has seen just about every variation of a rushing quarterback this season, but lightning-quick Kansas State QB Avery Johnson had 88 yards (109 without the sack yardage) against the Red Raiders last week.

Texas Tech has given up just five rushing touchdowns this season, two of them coming from Johnson last week.

Trends to watch: Texas Tech football’s fast starts vs. BYU’s road struggles

Texas Tech has only played two home Big 12 games this season, but they got off to fast starts in each, leading Kansas 18-0 and Oklahoma State 21-0 after the first quarter.

Meanwhile, BYU has had dicey games on the road. At Colorado, the Cougars got down 14-3 after one quarter. It was the opposite at Arizona, where BYU let a 14-0 lead turn into a 24-14 deficit early in the fourth quarter.

And at Iowa State, the Cyclones jumped out to a 24-10 lead in the second quarter. As they’re undefeated, the Cougars wound up winning each of these games.

Getting out to an early lead would prove very beneficial to the Red Raiders, then thwarting any sort of BYU comeback, which seems inevitable in such a situation.

There’s just one common opponent for Texas Tech and BYU this season (a once-unthinkable sentence in Week 11 of a season). The Red Raiders downed Utah 34-10 on the road while BYU squeaked out a 24-21 home win over the Utes.

Players to watch: Texas Tech football’s Jacob Rodriguez and BYU’s Jack Kelly

Did you know that Jacob Rodriguez is pretty good at punching the ball out? If you haven’t, you will probably hear it on the TV broadcast repeatedly.

Rodriguez leads the nation with seven forced fumbles after coming up with two more against Kansas State. He’s among the best linebackers in the country, and the converted quarterback has head coach Joey McGuire calling for him to get Heisman buzz.

BYU’s Jack Kelly is one to watch for the Cougars defense. He leads the team with five sacks and eight tackles for a loss of yardage.

One stat to know here: BYU has totaled 17 sacks this season. Texas Tech’s David Bailey leads the nation with 11.5 sacks on his own.

Who has the edge in Texas Tech football vs BYU?

Texas Tech’s offense vs. BYU’s defense: Texas Tech

BYU’s offense vs. Texas Tech’s defense: Texas Tech

Special teams: Push

Score prediction for Texas Tech football vs BYU

Texas Tech 34, BYU 28: This probably changes if LJ Martin is either out or hampered, but the Red Raiders are the must more tested team this season, and that’s calling the shared opponent of Utah a wash. The Cougars haven’t faced a defense like Texas Tech has or an offense as equipped to deal with whatever the BYU defense has in store.

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Is Texas Tech football ready for the spotlight to handle BYU?

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