Oregon slammed, Indiana rises? ESPN analyst picks CFP winners | Opinion
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are nearly upon us, meaning we are inching closer to our Fiesta Bowl semifinal game en route to crowning a national champion.
Before we get to the title game Jan. 19 in Miami, and the pair of games that will determine the two semifinalists — the Jan. 8 Fiesta Bowl and the Jan. 9 Peach Bowl — it’s time to debate and rate the four games coming later this week.
For that exercise, we decided to phone a friend for help and called upon former NFL linebacker Sam Acho, who spent the first four of his nine pro seasons with the Arizona Cardinals and serves as a college football analyst for ESPN.
Acho was in the radio booth on Saturday, Dec. 20, calling the CFP first-round matchup between sixth-seeded Ole Miss and No.11 Tulane in Oxford, Mississippi, and watched the Rebels roar to a 41-10 victory in their first game since the defection of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU. More on that later, but first things first.
Here’s how we decided to break down the CFP quarterfinal matchups:
CFP quarterfinals: No. 2 Ohio State (12-1) vs. No. 10 Miami (11-2)
Where: Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas)
When: Wednesday, Dec. 31
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. MST/ESPN
BetMGM odds: Ohio State by 9½
Mac: “Sam, is this one as easy as it looks like for the Buckeyes?”
Sam: “No. Not at all. Miami gave up only three points (to seventh-seeded Texas A&M). I think Ohio State is really good and I’d probably pick Ohio State to win.”
Mac: “But don’t overlook Miami?”
Sam: “Don’t overlook Miami, correct. A lot of people didn’t expect Miami to make it this far. … They didn’t give up much, defensively, and they made plays when they needed it the most. They had a pick in the end zone to win the game.”
Mac: “It was a crazy game. It was windy as heck and there were four missed field goals, combined.”
Sam: “Correct. Now, Ohio State has one of the best defenses. And (wide receiver) Jeremiah Smith could swing the game. He didn’t win the (Fred) Biletnikoff (Award) as the best receiver, and even though he was (sixth in voting) for the Heisman (Trophy), he posted a tweet pretty much saying he was going to go scorched earth. So Jeremiah Smith could be the difference maker in that matchup.”
Mac: “The Buckeyes also have two potential Top 10 NFL draft picks in safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Arvell Reese, who are as good as it gets. I don’t see how Ohio State loses this one, Sam.”
Sam: “Well, Miami has playmakers, too, like receiver Malachi Toney, the true freshman. He’s a do-it-all-kind-of-guy. … But Ohio State has been off for a while, and that’s another thing that could play into it. You never know.”
CFP quarterfinals: No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1) vs. No. 5 Oregon (12-1)
Where: Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Florida)
When: Thursday, Jan. 1
Time/TV: 10 a.m. MST/ESPN
BetMGM odds: Oregon by 1½
Mac: “Oregon took care of James Madison 51-34 in the opening round, but this one scares me, Sam. What do you think?”
Sam: “Yeah. Oregon looked really bad, defensively. They couldn’t stop James Madison, but James Madison couldn’t stop them, either. They didn’t have the athletes to compete. (Ducks coach) Dan Lanning said Oregon didn’t play to their standard, but I would argue that kind of is their standard. They haven’t been overly impressive all season long.”
Mac: “So, you like Texas Tech in this one, like me?”
Sam: “Well, they have one of the very best defenses when it comes to stopping the run. They have Jacob Rodriguez, the linebacker who finished fifth in the Heisman voting and forces a lot of turnovers. They have a safety, Cole Wisniewski, the transfer who won a couple of championships at North Dakota State, so he knows how to win. … Having a guy there who knows what it’s like is a positive.”
Mac: “The offensive lines might be a little suspect for both teams here, but I really like Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and wouldn’t mind seeing the Cardinals draft him in April if they can maneuver their way to get him. What say you?”
Sam: “I don’t know. … I haven’t been overly impressed by Dante Moore, being honest, to trade up.”
CFP quarterfinals: No. 1 Indiana (13-0) vs. No. 9 Alabama (11-3)
Where: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
When: Thursday, Jan. 1
Time/TV: 2 p.m. MST/ESPN
BetMGM odds: Indiana by 7
Mac: “Well, you’ve got to love Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, right? What fancies you on the Indiana-Alabama game, besides this being the first time the schools have ever met?”
Sam: “Um, Fernando Mendoza.”
Mac: “He is so difficult not to like, isn’t he?”
Sam: “Yeah, and they’ve been clutch, put it that way. Like, that team has been clutch from start to finish. And that’s not an accident. That breeds confidence. … They believe, put it that way, which is super positive. Their running game is good, defense is good.”
Mac: “And their coach (Curt Cignetti) is great!”
Sam: “Coach is great. Bingo. A two-time Coach of the Year. … They have been here before (just a year ago) and I think they’re going to use their experience to say, ‘Hey man, last time we got into the playoff, we got embarrassed. That’s not going to happen again.’”
Mac: “What about Alabama? They’ve got three losses, Sam.”
Sam: “Nah. One of those was to Georgia. They’re playing with a lot more confidence now. I like Indiana and this matchup because I think they’re the best team in college football, but (Alabama quarterback) Ty Simpson, he’s playing really well, too. I think he’s a first-round pick.”
Mac: “Good enough for the Cardinals?”
Sam: “I’d rather trade back and get him than trade up and get Dante Moore, put it that way.”
CFP quarterfinals: No. 3 Georgia (12-1) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1)
Where: Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, Louisiana)
When: Thursday, Jan. 1
Time/TV: 6 p.m. MST/ESPN
BetMGM odds: Georgia by 6½
Mac: “OK, so I’ve got a soft spot for Ole Miss just because of the way Kiffin bolted, but you saw their first-round win over Tulane. What’s your take on this one?”
Sam: “One of the questions I had was: How will they respond under their new coach and how would Pete Golding manage not only the defense but the entire team? They did a real good job. The defense gave up a lot of yards, which wasn’t encouraging, but they gave up very few points. The offense was streaky.”
Mac: “What can you tell me about their QB, Trinidad Chambliss, the transfer from Ferris State?”
Sam: “He won a D-II national championship and is a big-time leader. He’s super humble. He went down in the game (against Tulane) but came back. What I really like is they have a deep running back room. … I like their receivers, too.”
Mac: “Georgia beat Ole Miss 43-35 back on Oct. 18. What do you like about the Bulldogs, who won the national title in 2021 and 2022?”
Sam: “They should be playing with a lot of confidence. They beat Texas by 25 points (on Nov. 15), they held Alabama to negative-3 rushing yards (on Dec. 6), and their quarterback, Gunner Stockton, is a winner. People like to say he’s more of a running quarterback, but when he needs to make critical throws, he did, like in that Tennessee game (a 44-41 overtime win on Sept. 13).”
College Football Playoff championship prediction
Mac: “All right, Sam. So, who are your favorites to play for the national championship?”
Sam: “Don’t hold me to this, but I think I had Indiana playing Georgia and Indiana beating Georgia in the natty. I’ve got to see if Alabama made the necessary (pass-protection) changes that can have them potentially beating Indiana. That would be the only thing.”
Mac: “I’m with you, Sam and predict the Hoosiers will win it all, but like I said, I really have a soft spot this year for Ole Miss. Go Rebels!”
Reach McManaman at bob.mcmanaman@arizonarepublic. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter: @azbobbymac and listen to him live every Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. on Roc and Manuch with Jimmy B on ESPN 620 (KTAR-AM).
Sign up for our free newsletters at https://profile.azcentral.com/newsletters/manage/ for complete coverage.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: ESPN analyst makes predictions for College Football Playoff games
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos