Mussatto: CFP hopefuls Brent Venables, Lincoln Riley trending upward simultaneously
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This college football head coaching cycle could surpass 2021 levels of craziness.
Fourteen power conference jobs changed hands that cycle. Nine, including Oklahoma State, are already open this cycle. And it’s barely November.
In 2021, OU was unexpectedly at the epicenter of the coaching chaos. Lincoln Riley left the Sooners for Southern Cal, which led to Brent Venables’ hiring in Norman.
Riley seemed like a surefire A-lister in Hollywood and Venables was the right man at the time for OU, which needed someone who could restore the nostalgia — and hopefully, with it, the success — of the Stoops era after Riley fled west.
The results have been meh at best, but after simultaneously silencing blackout crowds in Knoxville, Tennessee, and Lincoln, Nebraska, Venables and Riley are trending up while the pressure on them has been dialed back.
Two big wins in pseudo elimination games for the pair of two-loss teams.
The Sooners (7-2), 12th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, are a lock to make the 12-team playoff field if they win out. OU’s two losses came against fellow playoff contenders in No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 11 Texas. The Sooners, at 10-2, would have wins against current No. 4 Alabama, No. 21 Michigan, No. 22 Missouri and No. 25 Tennessee.
The Trojans (6-2) are 19th in the CFP poll. USC has one bad loss (at Illinois) and one quality loss (at No. 10 Notre Dame). USC, like OU, beat No. 21 Michigan. And the Trojans can boost their resume with a respectable four-game closing stretch: vs. Northwestern, vs. No. 20 Iowa, at No. 9 Oregon, vs. UCLA.
USC will be favored in each of those three home games. Winning in Eugene is a tall task, similar to OU winning in Tuscaloosa, but the Trojans, like the Sooners, will be sitting pretty if they can win out.
ESPN’s predictor model gives OU a 36% chance of making the CFP and USC a 17% chance.
If OU wins out, and assuming the Sooners don’t make the SEC Championship Game, their chances of making the playoff are greater than 99%, per ESPN’s model. USC, under that same scenario — winning out and not playing in the Big Ten title game — has an 88% chance of making the playoff.
Barring a 1-2 finish for the Sooners and a 1-3 crash for the Trojans, Venables and Riley will likely see a fifth season.
Both are 48 games into their jobs.
Riley at USC: 32-16 (21-11 Pac-12/Big Ten)
Venables at OU: 29-19 (15-16 Big 12/SEC)
Riley’s .846 winning percentage at OU is the best in program history. Better than Barry Switzer (.837), Bud Wilkinson (.826) and Bob Stoops (.799). Venables, with a .604 winning percentage, is 10th among Sooner coaches.
Riley’s winning percentage at USC has tanked to .667, ninth in Trojans history. Tied with Steve Sarkisian, and just above Clay Helton, the man Riley replaced.
While both Venables and Riley have underperformed expectations at their new jobs, it could be worse.
LSU hired Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame in that same 2021 cycle. Florida hired Billy Napier. Virginia Tech hired Brent Pry.
Fired, fired and fired.
There were also a couple hits in that cycle. Duke hired Mike Elko, who spent two seasons in Durham, North Carolina, before taking the Texas A&M job. Virginia hired Tony Elliot, who has the Cavaliers in College Football Playoff contention.
And there were some home runs. Dan Lanning at Oregon. Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame. Mario Cristobal at Miami. Sonny Dykes at TCU and Joey McGuire at Texas Tech.
Venables and Riley have a ways to go before joining that list, but in a critical fourth season, they’ve done enough to avoid the fates of Kelly, Napier and Pry.
It’d be great theater to see the Sooners and Trojans meet in something like the Las Vegas Bowl. Neither OU nor USC would want any part of that matchup, but think of the drama!
Better yet, what if they match up in the College Football Playoff? Neither side could say no to that.
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: CFP hopefuls Brent Venables, Lincoln Riley are trending up at OU, USC
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