Ohio State vs. Miami: 2025 game preview and prediction

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For the third straight season, Ohio State will be playing in the Cotton Bowl. On Wednesday night, the Buckeyes will match up with the Miami Hurricanes, with the winner moving on to the Fiesta Bowl next week to take on the winner of the Sugar Bowl, which will feature Ole Miss and Georgia on New Year’s Day. This marks Ohio State’s seventh trip to the College Football Playoff, while Miami is making its first appearance in the CFP.

Ohio State will be looking to shake off the 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, which was the first setback of the season for the Buckeyes. The good news for Ohio State fans is that last season they also entered the College Football Playoff on the heels of a 13-10 loss, and then went on to win four games in a row to earn their third national title in the 21st century. Since the loss to the Hoosiers only dropped Ohio State one spot in the rankings, the Buckeyes received a first-round bye and will only have to win three games to repeat as national champions.

History is against Miami and in the Cotton Bowl

Wednesday night marks the sixth meeting between the Buckeyes and Hurricanes, with Ohio State holding a 3-2 edge in the series. The most memorable game between the programs came in the 2002 BCS National Championship Game, where the Buckeyes shocked the Hurricanes 31-24 in double overtime in Tempe. Ohio State entered the game as nearly two-touchdown underdogs. Since then, the teams split a home-and-home series, as the Buckeyes beat Miami in Columbus, followed by the Hurricanes returning the favor at home the following year when Ohio State was led by interim head coach Luke Fickell.

The Buckeyes will be in Dallas for the third consecutive season for the Cotton Bowl, and it will be their fifth overall appearance in the bowl game in school history. Their first Cotton Bowl game came in 1987 when they defeated Texas A&M 28-12. 30 years passed before Ohio State would play in the game again, beating USC 24-7 in 2017. The least memorable Cotton Bowl for the Buckeyes came in 2023 when they were defeated by Missouri 14-3, and last year they outlasted Texas 28-14 in the College Football Playoff semifinal.

How will the Buckeye offense respond?

Ohio State’s offense will be looking to bounce back from the Indiana game, where they were only able to gain 323 yards on the Hoosiers. Prior to the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes had posted at least 400 yards of offense in six straight games. On the season, Ohio State is averaging 429.5 yards per game, which ranks 24th among FBS teams.

Julian Sayin will be making his first appearance on the field since he was named a Heisman Trophy finalist. In his first season as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, the redshirt freshman threw for 3,323 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Despite being harassed all game long by the pass rush of Indiana, Sayin still nearly led the Buckeyes to victory against the Hoosiers, completing 21 of 29 pass attempts for 258 yards and a touchdown.

What has set Sayin apart from other college quarterbacks around the country this year is his accuracy. Sayin has completed 78.4 percent of his pass attempts this year, which is on track to shatter Will Howard’s school record for completion percentage in a season of 71.4 percent. There have been only two games this season where Sayin has failed to record a completion percentage of 70 percent, with those games coming against Texas and Rutgers.

One thing Sayin will have working in his favor on Wednesday night is that his top two targets have had time to get healthy. Not only did wide receiver Carnell Tate miss three games with a calf injury before returning for the victory over Michigan, but Jeremiah Smith was also banged up late in the year, causing him to miss the Rutgers game. With nearly a month off between games, both Tate and Smith should be as close to 100 percent as possible.

Wednesday night’s contest will mean a lot to Jeremiah Smith, since he not only grew up in Miami Gardens, but the Hurricanes were in the mix to earn his commitment coming out of high school. The sophomore was named Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year after hauling in 80 passes for 1,086 yards and 11 scores this season. Through 28 games at Ohio State, Smith has 156 catches for 2,401 yards, finding the end zone 26 times.

Once Ohio State’s season comes to an end, it is likely Carnell Tate will declare for the NFL Draft. Tate has been an incredible threat down the field for Sayin this season, as five of his nine touchdown catches have gone for at least 40 yards. Despite missing three games due to injury, the junior receiver needs just 162 yards to reach 1,000 receiving yards on the season, a number that feels easily attainable if the Buckeyes play at least two games in the College Football Playoff.

Along with Smith and Tate, tight end Max Klare and wide receiver Brandon Inniss are the other Buckeyes who have caught at least 30 passes so far this season. Klare has hauled in 43 passes in his first season at Ohio State after transferring from Purdue following last season. Inniss has added 32 catches and three touchdowns after the junior was voted a team captain during the offseason. With Klare and Inniss playing so well, opposing defenses can focus all their attention on Smith and Tate.

Following a sluggish start to the season, the Ohio State rushing attack has gained momentum as the season has moved along. With 83 yards against Indiana, Bo Jackson became the fifth Ohio State true freshman running back to reach 1,000 yards rushing in their first season with the Buckeyes. Jackson is also one of just two true freshman running backs in the FBS this year to rush for at least 1,000 yards this year, with the other being Caleb Hawkins of North Texas.

Joining Jackson in the backfield are three other backs who have rushed for at least 300 yards this season. James Peoples enters Wednesday’s game with 344 yards and three touchdowns on the season. West Virginia transfer C.J. Donaldson Jr. has been a short-yardage specialist, finding the end zone 10 times on the ground, and Isaiah West started seeing carries as the season moved on, gaining 310 yards in his freshman season.

Not only will Ohio State’s offensive line be coming off a performance against Indiana where they allowed five sacks, but they’ll also be without starting guard Tegra Tshabola, who has started every game for the Buckeyes since the start of the 2024 season. Expect Gabe VanSickle and Joshua Padilla to fill in while Tshabola is sidelined. This will mark just the second game this year with a different starting offensive line, as Ian Moore started at right tackle for Phillip Daniels Jr. in the Purdue game.

The Silver Bullets look to continue to stymie the opposition

While the Buckeye offense has been strong for most of the season, Ohio State’s calling card has been its defense. Through 13 games, the Buckeyes have allowed just 106 points, which is their lowest total in 50 years. The 1975 squad allowed just 102 points in 12 games. Ohio State is outscoring opponents 454-106 this season. The 8.2 points per game the Buckeye defense has allowed this season ranks first in the country.

Along with topping the nation in scoring defense, the Buckeyes also field the top total defense in terms of yardage and the best pass defense. Ohio State is allowing just 213.5 total yards per game and 129.1 passing yards per game. The only teams that have been able to put up more than 300 yards on the Buckeyes have been Texas and Indiana, while no Ohio State opponent has scored more than 16 points this year. The play of the defense has resulted in Buckeye Nation quickly falling in love with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who is in his first year with the school.

The front line of the Ohio State defense features two first-team All-Americans in defensive end Caden Curry and defensive tackle Kayden McDonald. Curry leads the Buckeyes with 16.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks this season, while McDonald was named the Big Ten’s Defensive Lineman of the Year. McDonald has garnered more attention with each game he has played in 2025 and is being projected as a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Joining the duo is Kenyatta Jackson Jr. The defensive end has 11 TFLs and 6.5 sacks on the year.

Much like the defensive line, Ohio State’s linebackers feature two All-Americans and a Big Ten honoree. Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles were both named first-team All-Americans, with Reese being selected as the Big Ten Linebacker of the Year. Styles leads Ohio State entering Wednesday’s game with 80 tackles. Even though Reese has just 62 stops on the season, he has a ton of impact tackles, registering 10 TFLs and 6.5 sacks. Complimenting the two linebackers this season has been Payton Pierce, who has been quietly solid with 41 tackles.

The star of the Buckeye defense is Caleb Downs, who was named the winner of the Thorpe Award and the Lott IMPACT Award. The future top-10 NFL draft pick is tied with Caden Curry for third on the team with 60 tackles and has two interceptions on the year. Downs is joined at safety by Jaylen McClain, who has been consistent throughout the year in his first season as a starter. Other Ohio State defensive backs with two interceptions in 2025 are cornerbacks Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Mathews Jr.

Miami’s season at a glance

Miami earned a spot in the College Football Playoff by posting a 10-2 record in the regular season. Even though the Hurricanes didn’t play in the ACC Championship Game, the committee decided that a win over Notre Dame in the season opener was enough to give Miami the nod over the Fighting Irish when it came to the last spot in the 12-team field that wasn’t given to a Group of 5 school. The Hurricanes went on to defeat Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round in College Station.

The win over the Aggies wasn’t pretty, as neither team scored in the first half, and the game was tied at 3-3 in the fourth quarter before Malachi Toney’s game-winning touchdown. Toney atoned for a mistake earlier in the quarter when he lost a fumble as he was fighting for extra yardage. The victory was Miami’s fifth straight win. Even though Texas A&M outgained the Hurricanes and recorded nine more first downs in the game, in the end, the only numbers that matter are those on the scoreboard when the clock strikes zero.

Leading Miami is head coach Mario Cristobal, who is in his fourth season at his alma mater, where he was an offensive lineman and part of two national championship teams. With the win over Texas A&M, Cristobal now has a 33-18 record as head coach of the Hurricanes, and a 95-78 record in his 14 total seasons as a head coach. The only time Cristobal coached against the Buckeyes came in September 2021 when his Oregon team beat Ryan Day and Ohio State 35-28 in Columbus, snapping the 23-game home winning streak of the Buckeyes.

How the Hurricanes line up on offense

Taking the snaps for Miami on Wednesday night will be Carson Beck. Following two years as a starter with Georgia, Beck entered the transfer portal following last season. The senior now has a 35-5 record as a starter and is one of just three active quarterbacks with 10,000 career passing yards. In his first season with the Hurricanes, Beck has thrown for 3,175 yards, 26 touchdowns, and tossed 10 interceptions, with four of those picks coming in the loss to Louisville. Beck will be looking to make an impact in this year’s playoff after suffering a right elbow injury in last year’s SEC Championship Game, which sidelined him for the rest of Georgia’s season.

The offensive star of Miami’s win over Texas A&M in the first round was Mark Fletcher Jr. The running back posted a career-high by racking up 172 scrimmage yards, which was the ninth-highest total in College Football Playoff history. Fletcher now has 857 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on the season. The game against the Buckeyes will be important for Fletcher since he originally committed to Ohio State while he was in high school before flipping to Miami. The team’s second-leading rusher, CharMar Brown, didn’t play in the win over the Aggies.

Much like Jeremiah Smith had college football buzzing after an outstanding freshman season, Malachi Toney has been making a lot of noise in his first season of college football. Toney now has 89 receptions, which has broken the Miami single-season record of 85 catches, set by Xavier Restrepo in 2023. With eight more yards, Toney will reach 1,000 receiving yards on the season. Ohio State will also have to be aware of Toney on some trick plays, since he did play quarterback in high school and showed in the game against Texas A&M that he can throw a good ball.

Joining Toney are a trio of receivers who hauled in at least 20 passes this season. Keelan Marion started his college career at UConn before transferring to BYU, where he spent the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Marion has 44 receptions for 590 yards in 2025. C.J. Daniels is another receiver closing out his career at Miami. Daniels was previously at Liberty and LSU before catching 37 passes for 420 yards and seven touchdowns for the Hurricanes this year. Elija Lofton has added 22 catches for 200 yards and three scores.

What has helped Carson Beck find comfort in the pocket this year is that the Hurricanes are one of just eight FBS teams to start the same five offensive linemen in every game this season. The leader of the group is right tackle Francis Mauigoa, who was awarded the ACC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy. Joining Mauigoa on the right side of the line is guard Anez Cooper. James Brockermeyer will be snapping the football for Miami, while Markel Bell and Matt McCoy round out the left side of the offensive line for the Hurricanes.

While Ohio State’s defense will be seen as the best defense in this game, Miami’s defense shouldn’t be underestimated. The Hurricanes ranked sixth in the country, allowing just 13 points per game in Corey Hetherman’s first season as defensive coordinator. Even more impressive about the Miami defense is that they have done a great job at not giving up the big play, as they are the only team in the country to not give up a touchdown of more than 40 yards.

Highlighting the athletic defense of the Hurricanes

Following an ugly performance against Indiana, Ohio State’s offensive line is going to have its hands full with the defensive line of the Hurricanes. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. was the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year after recording 11.5 TFLs and 7.5 sacks in 2025, with three sacks coming in the win over Texas A&M in the first round. On the other side of the defensive line is Akheem Mesidor. The senior who started his career at West Virginia has 13.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, and four forced fumbles this season. Ahmad Moten Sr. and Keionte Scott each started at the defensive tackle positions against Texas A&M. Scott was massive against the Aggies, registering 10 tackles and two sacks.

The primary linebackers Ohio State will see on Wednesday night will be Mohamed Toure and Wesley Bissainthe. Toure already has plenty of experience playing against Ohio State after he was at Rutgers from 2020-24. Toure enters the game against the Buckeyes as Miami’s leading tackler with 62 stops on the season. Unlike Toure, Bissainthe has been at Miami his whole career and has actually played all of his football in Miami after attending Miami Central High School. Bissainthe has 53 tackles and an interception this season.

Miami’s most impactful player in their secondary has undoubtedly been Bryce Fitzgerald. After securing the win over Texas A&M with an interception in the end zone late in the game, Fitzgerald now has six interceptions on the season, tied for the most among players from Power 4 schools. Fitzgerald often lines up at the nickel position, while Xavier Lucas and O.J. Frederique have manned the other cornerback spots. Frederique returned to the lineup against Texas A&M after missing the previous seven games due to injury.

The constants in the secondary have been safeties Jakobe Thomas and Zechariah Poyser, who have each started all 13 games for the Hurricanes this season. Poyser is in his first season at Miami after spending his first two seasons of college football at Jacksonville State. Thomas has done a little bit of everything for the Hurricanes this year. Not only has Thomas recorded 58 tackles, but he also has 3.5 sacks, four interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles.

Prediction

Ohio State has to hope that Miami doesn’t do to them what the Buckeyes did to Oregon last year in the quarterfinals. Will the extra rest hurt Ohio State, or will it allow them time to identify the wrongs from the loss to the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship Game? Will the Hurricanes have extra confidence since they already have a playoff game under their belt this year, having left a tough environment in College Station with a win?

Miami is a team loaded with tremendous athletes, an experienced quarterback, and a chip on its shoulder. Does that sound familiar to Buckeye Nation? As long as Ohio State plays its game, the Bucks should be able to advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals. The key to the game for the Buckeyes is being able to give quarterback Julian Sayin time to work through his options. While Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are tremendous defensive ends, Ohio State’s offensive line will likely be playing with some extra grit on Wednesday after how poorly they protected Sayin against the Hoosiers.

What will also work in Ohio State’s favor is that they have gotten a taste of what it’s like to be punched in the mouth. The Buckeyes had cruised in the second half of games prior to the Big Ten Championship Game. Now, Ohio State knows what it’s like to be in a tight game, and the loss to Indiana was one they could have won had they not beaten themselves.

History is also on the side of the Buckeyes. Last year, Ryan Day had to stomach a 13-10 loss heading into the playoff and all his team did was play four outstanding games to win the national championship. At least this year they only have to play three games after a 13-10 loss before the playoffs. Expect Jeremiah Smith to have a huge game since he is from Miami and will want to prove he made the right decision in coming to Ohio State, especially after many Hurricane fans still want to see him return home before his college career is over.

LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 28, Miami 17

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