Why Lincoln Riley isn't as successful now as he was at Oklahoma

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Lincoln Riley never did win a College Football Playoff game at Oklahoma, but he made the playoff three times as the Sooners' head coach, a fourth time as offensive coordinator. In 2017, Riley was a better and more successful head coach than he is now at USC. This should not be seen as controversial. Riley's OU years were and are empirically better than what he has produced in Los Angeles.

The real question: Why? Why is this the case? Why has Riley gotten worse, not better, as a college football head coach? One answer: College football has changed in ways which do not suit Riley's style and overall approach. We did the research to prove it.

College football analyst Josh Webb did hand-written analysis with notes on a specific subtopic in the sport: shootouts played involving two power conference teams. A "shootout," for purposes of official categorization and record keeping, is a game in which both teams score at least 30 points.

Webb's research indicated that at the power conference level (including the Pac-12 before it splintered in 2024), there were 71 shootouts in the 2016 season. There were 64 shootouts in 2022, when Riley and USC went 11-2 and had a really good year.

This year, through the first round of the College Football Playoff (this past weekend), there have been only 42 shootouts involving power conference teams. Keep in mind, this does not include the American Conference or any other Group of Five league. Lincoln Riley doesn't coach a Group of Five team in a Group of Five conference, so it seemed unfair and unreasonable to include G-5 games in a statistical overview of shootouts as a measurement of where college football is heading and how the sport has changed.

Lincoln Riley memorably won epic shootouts at Oklahoma, beating Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech 66-59 and beating Oklahoma State 62-52. Riley was the king of winning shootouts at OU. At USC, he doesn't play nearly as many of them. It's partly because of the Big Ten, partly because his offensive lines haven't been as good (2023 and 2024), and partly because of rule changes which have the clock run after first downs, which shortens games and reduces the number of plays.

Nevertheless, it remains that college football is not as much of a shootout-driven sport as it was 10 years ago. It's not that hard to stop and consider why Riley isn't as successful today at USC. The sport has changed in ways which cut against Riley's style.

This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Lincoln Riley was a much better football coach in 2017 than 2025

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