Game Preview: CFP Quarterfinals – Miami vs. Ohio State

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Game Details

Matchup: 10 Miami Hurricanes at 2 Ohio State – Cotton Bowl Classic
Date: Wednesday, 12/31/2025
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Location: AT&T Stadium
TV: ESPN

Recent History

Last matchup: September 17th, 2011 – Ohio State 6, Miami 24
All-time series record: Miami 2 wins, Ohio State 2 wins
Most famous game: the 2002-03 National Championship, Ohio State 31, Miami 24. The infamous defensive pass interference call on the Hurricanes to steal the win from Miami

Miami Hurricanes Outlook

After having their first-ever win in the College Football Playoff, Miami is heading into the Cotton Bowl Classic with a lot of momentum. The Hurricanes enter this game with a big win over Texas A&M at Kyle Field, thanks to one of the best defensive performances in college football this season.

Corey Hetherman has transformed this defense in his first year as the defensive coordinator. They are without a doubt one of the best units in the country and have multiple game-changers, including future first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr.

Bain is coming off a three-sack, four-tackle-for-loss performance against the Aggies, as he was phenomenal for the Canes. His running mate, Akheem Mesidor, was just as impressive. He was everywhere on the field and disrupted a lot more plays than Bain. Mesidor finished the game with 1.5 sacks and five total tackles, including 11 total pressures.

The player who has been the X-Factor for Miami has been Keionte Scott. The nickel corner returned to the lineup against Texas A&M and made an immediate impact, arguably the best defensive player on the field. He recorded two sacks, one forced fumble, and allowed five yards per reception.

True freshman safety Bryce Fitzgerald was as impressive as anyone on the field against the Aggies, with two crucial interceptions, one of them to win the game in the end zone. This defense performed best when they needed it, and they expect to continue that heading into the Cotton Bowl.

Transitioning to the offensive side of the ball, Mark Fletcher Jr. is coming off one of the more impressive performances by a Hurricane in quite some time. He rushed for 172 yards on only 17 carries against the Aggies’ defense, which is known for being one of the best units in the country. Fletcher has seven rushes that went for more than 10 yards and four rushes that went more than 15 yards.

Carson Beck didn’t have an eye-popping performance against Texas A&M, but he didn’t do anything to lose the game. The weather conditions in that game were awful (over 30 mph winds), making it hard to execute cleanly on offense. Going into the Cotton Bowl, I expect Beck to look a lot different when passing the ball.

The game will be in Jerry’s World so that no weather conditions will affect it. Beck should be able to look a lot better and not have the wind carry the ball and sail it. On the other hand, he is facing the best defense in the country and DC Matt Patricia.

What’s been impressive about Beck is his ability to play well on the road. When on the road, Beck completes 76% of his passes (three points higher than at home) and has a 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Superstar Malachi Toney will be a massive part of the offense and help Beck ease into the game. Toney has recorded over 1,300 all-purpose yards this season and recorded the game-winning touchdown last week against the Aggies.

Other notable offensive players are a future first-round pick OT Francis Mauigoa, WR Keelan Marion, WR CJ Daniels, and a sneaky one, RB Girard Pringle Jr.

Ohio State Outlook

The Ohio State Buckeyes are arguably the best team in college football and the most talented team in the country.

The defending national champions head into the Cotton Bowl after earning a bye week in the first round of the College Football Playoff. If history repeats itself, teams that had a bye week come out a little sluggish in the quarterfinal.

I don’t expect Ohio State to miss a beat.

They are powered by their defense, which is the best unit in the country. Their defensive ranks are some of the best in the nation, including:

Yards Allowed per Game – 213.5 (1st)
Yards per Play – 3.9 (2nd)
Rushing Yards per Game – 84.5 (5th)
Yards per Rush – 2.8 (6th)
Passing Yards per Game – 129.1 (1st)
Yards per Attempt – 5.3 (3rd)

Patricia has done a phenomenal job with the defense and has made it extremely difficult for opposing teams. It doesn’t hurt when you have a handful of NFL players on your roster as well.

Arvell Reese will be a top-ten pick and arguably the best defensive player in the upcoming NFL Draft. Sonny Styles leads the defense in total tackles and is a complete game wrecker. Caden Curry leads the Buckeyes in sacks with 11 and is tied for third in total tackles with Caleb Downs. Speaking of the best safety in college football, Downs is another future first-round pick and has been touted as the best defensive player on this unit, too.

The abundance of talent they have on just the defensive side of the ball is insane. But the best overall player on their roster is on the offensive side.

Jeremiah Smith is a freak of nature. He has recorded:

98 targets (40 more targets than the next closest receiver)
80 receptions (leads team)
1,086 receiving yards (leads team)
11 touchdowns (leads team)

His counterpart, Carnell Tate, is viewed to be a high pick in this upcoming draft and is nothing to overlook, too. He has recorded 48 receptions for 838 yards, averaging just over 17 yards per catch. He has nine touchdowns and leads the team with a 151.1 NFL Passer Rating when targeted.

The Buckeyes running game is underrated, and it’s led by Bo Jackson. He eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark, averaging over six yards per carry. The running back who leads the room in touchdowns is CJ Donaldson, who has been in the paint ten times this season.

Julian Sayin has produced impressive numbers as the quarterback for Ohio State. He is completing 78% of his passes this season and has thrown for over 3,300 yards. Sayin has thrown for 31 touchdowns and has only thrown six interceptions.

The one weakness of the Buckeyes’ offense is the offensive line. The right side of the line has been inconsistent, including Tegra Tshabola. It looks like he won’t be available against Miami and may be getting an upgrade at the right guard position, as Gabe VanSickle will replace him.

Nonetheless, this offense is still talented but has shown some weaknesses against better defenses, as they did against Indiana.

What’s at Stake

To move on and play in the Fiesta Bowl: The winner of the Cotton Bowl will play either Ole Miss or Georgia in the semifinals of the CFP and have a chance to make the national championship.
National relevance: If Miami wins this game, it further proves to high school kids and even college players that Miami is a true contender going forward.
Revenge: Securing revenge for what happened in the national championship in 2002-03.

Prediction

Miami and Ohio State will be the battle of the trenches.

Both rosters are talented, with the Buckeyes may have the slight edge in talent all around. What Miami may have an advantage over the Buckeyes is in the trenches.

The Canes’ offensive and defensive lines are legit, and we have seen them deliver great performances against formidable opponents. The Buckeys struggled a bit running the ball against Indiana, which has a great defensive line. If Miami can make them one-dimensional on offense, I like Hetherman over Ryan Day for play-calling.

The big matchup is between Shannon Dawson and Patricia. The advantage is to Patricia, without a doubt. The offensive line will be the biggest difference maker on that side of the ball, and I believe it’s a matchup that not a lot of people are talking about. If the Canes control the line of scrimmage, they win this game.

The Buckeyes have the better playmakers and overall talent, but games are won in the trenches.

Final Score Prediction: Miami 23, Ohio State 20

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