Which College Football Playoff Teams Will Make the Final Four?
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Of the 136 NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams, only eight remain with a shot at the College Football National Championship.
The top four seeds, Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech earned a first-round bye. The other four teams, Oregon, Ole Miss, Miami and Alabama, won their first-round matchups to earn their spots in the quarterfinals.
All eight remaining teams have, at one point during the season, shown flashes of what it takes to win a championship. The question is: Which of the eight will bring those flashes to bring in the new year?
No. 1 Indiana vs No. 8 Alabama
Indiana is College Football’s Juggernaut
Indiana hasn’t had to worry about their playoff spot for a long time. As the only undefeated FBS team, they have been sound on both sides of the ball.
Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown multiple difficult game-sealing passes this season and will continue to deliver in the playoffs. They also average the 10th-most rushing yards per game in the FBS.
One cannot forget the importance of the Hoosiers’ coach, Curt Cignetti. Cignetti has succeeded everywhere he’s gone, and Indiana is no different. In two seasons, he has turned Indiana from the worst team in the Big Ten to the best team in the country.
It should be no surprise that, like most of the other great college football coaches, he, too, is a part of Nick Saban’s coaching tree. That is oftentimes a prerequisite to be a great coach these days.
Does Alabama Have the Juice to Compete?
Alabama has had a largely up-and-down season. They started by losing to Florida State in Week 1, but then rattled off eight straight wins, including wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. At one point, their own quarterback, Ty Simpson, was the favorite to win the Heisman trophy.
However, it appeared as though they were running out of gas at the end of the season, where, in a four-game span, they lost to Oklahoma, barely beat Auburn, and got pummeled by Georgia. They were even on the verge of getting bounced out of the playoffs entirely.
The Crimson Tide revived themselves in the nick of time when they were down 17-0 to Oklahoma in the first round, scoring 27 unanswered points. But their rushing offense is still largely unimpressive. They rank 118th in the country in rushing yards per game.
In addition, they struggle significantly with dropped passes as a team — leading the way is one of their go-to receivers, Ryan Williams. Against Indiana’s top-notch defense, that just won’t fly.
Score prediction: Indiana 31, Alabama 13
No. 2 Ohio State vs No. 10 Miami (FL)
Miami Has Skated By Recently
It took Miami until the waning minutes of its first-round matchup to reach 10 points. Ten points against Texas A&M, a fraudulent team that faced the entire bottom half of the SEC until the last week, when Texas exposed them. If that is the version of Miami that shows up against Ohio State, they will be, as Gen Alpha kids say, “cooked.”
Carson Beck, Miami’s quarterback, has had a decent season. However, he is prone to mistakes. In the Hurricanes’ loss to Louisville earlier in the year, he threw four interceptions, which cost them the game. He can’t afford any mistakes against the Buckeyes, who boast the best defense in the nation by numerous metrics.
Ohio State, despite being a strong favorite, should come into the game with a similar worry. Miami has a strong defense as well, and averages the fourth-most sacks per game in the FBS. While both offensive lines have held up well over the course of the season, this game will be a defense-heavy affair.
Jeremiah Smith is the Buckeyes’ X-Factor
The one thing Ohio State has that Miami doesn’t is Jeremiah Smith. He alone may offset Miami’s defensive abilities. He has wreaked havoc on opposing defenses, and teams have triple-covered him just to contain him. OSU’s edge on both sides of the ball should add up to a win on New Year’s Eve.
Score prediction: Ohio State 24, Miami 3
No. 3 Georgia vs No. 6 Ole Miss
Can Ole Miss Change Tune in SEC Rematch?
Both of these teams are in very different stages than they were in their first meeting this season.
In their last meeting, Ole Miss led 35-26 heading into the fourth quarter before Georgia roared back with 17 unanswered points. Now, Ole Miss enters the rematch without their then-head coach, Lane Kiffin, but on the heels of a dominant win over Tulane.
Since the loss to Georgia, the Rebels have not scored less than 30 points, nor have they won by less than eight. However, no matter how good they’ve been since Kiffin left, his absence is significant.
This mixed bag of momentum makes Ole Miss’ expectations hard to gauge.
How well does the game against Tulane actually reflect their skill level? Is new coach Pete Golding an upgrade or downgrade from Lane Kiffin? And by how much? Did Kiffin’s departure motivate them enough to actually improve them?
We won’t get our answers until New Year’s Day.
Georgia Bulldogs Ready to Rally
On the other hand, Georgia has only improved since their game against Ole Miss on October 18. That was the second of three games in a row where the Bulldogs stumbled and barely walked away with the win. However, in later weeks, they dominated against both Texas and Alabama. Their special teams, offense and defense all seemed to be at the top of their game.
Georgia’s main source of unpredictability comes from possible rust, not having played for almost a month. Still, College Football Playoff fans will have a much better idea of what they’ll get from Georgia than Ole Miss on New Year’s Day.
This is the most unpredictable matchup of the second round. It wouldn’t be a shocker to see Ole Miss walk out on the winning side, but Georgia probably wins by a hair again.
Score prediction: Georgia 34, Ole Miss 30
No. 4 Texas Tech vs No. 5 Oregon
Texas Tech’s Time to Shine
The college football world is in for a treat with this one. Texas Tech has experienced smooth sailing for most of the season, barring their loss to Arizona State without their starting quarterback, Behren Morton.
They eviscerated Big 12 runner-up BYU not once, but twice. In the latter game, they forced four turnovers. They’re one of two teams, the other being Indiana, to have both a top-three scoring offense AND a top-three scoring defense.
Oregon is More Battle Tested
Texas Tech will meet another one-loss team, Oregon. Dan Lanning has been running a machine for the past few years in Eugene, and this year is no different. Lanning boasts one of the best quarterbacks in the country for the third straight year and an offense that can attack in a multitude of ways. He’s one of the best coaches in the country, and the Ducks’ only loss this year was to the No. 1 team, Indiana, in a competitive game.
While arguments can be made for both teams as to why they could win it all, arguments can be made against them as well, beyond the one loss each team has.
Texas Tech is not nearly as battle-tested as other teams. Their toughest opponents have been No. 12 BYU and No. 15 Utah. Oregon is ever so slightly more battle-tested, having defeated Penn State at their Whiteout game, in addition to No. 24 James Madison, No. 16 USC and No. 23 Iowa. But Oregon also lacks a win over a team that’s currently in the top 10.
In addition, Oregon’s defense had an extremely poor performance against James Madison in the first round. It seemed like, since they knew the game was out of reach, they stopped caring. They allowed James Madison to score 28 second-half points. If that defense shows up the same way against Texas Tech, the Ducks stand no chance.
This game will be close, no doubt. But Oregon can handle high-pressure well and will score the victory when the clock hits zero.
Score prediction: Oregon 34, Texas Tech 32 (2OT)
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