Texas Tech vs Oregon scouting report, score prediction for Orange Bowl
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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — There’s no need to wonder anymore. The Orange Bowl is here, and that means it’s time to pick a winner between Texas Tech and Oregon in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
Joey McGuire and Dan Lanning are two chips off the same block, just a few years separating the two from practically being twins. The Red Raiders and Ducks identify with their head coaches, and their programs emulate each other, Oregon being the precursor to what Texas Tech is trying to build in the Big 12.
Now the two teams will collide for a chance to move one step closer to the national championship. Will it be the Ducks, who have been in this spot before, or the Red Raiders, who are trying to upend the college football ecosystem?
Matchup to watch: Texas Tech football’s red zone offense vs Oregon’s red zone defense
If there’s a weakness in Texas Tech’s game, it’s producing touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone. The Red Raiders ranked 46th in the nation in total red zone success, converting on 87.7% of their total opportunities so far this season.
However, that number dwindles when taking out field goals. In Texas Tech’s 73 red zone possessions, just 56% of them have ended with a touchdown. That’s been a concern throughout the year. The Red Raiders need to keep Stone Harrington’s field go attempts to a minimum inside the 20-yard line.
When the Red Raiders have scored TDs inside the 20, the majority of been on running plays. That puts the focus on Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams to help punctuate a drive, though Behren Morton can silence a lot of doubters by doing the dirty work himself.
The question is how many red-zone opportunities the Red Raiders will get this season. Oregon leads the country with just 30 red zone opportunities allowed this season. When they’ve gotten there, teams have converted TDs on 70% of their possessions. Getting to the red zone alone will be the challenge in this one.
Players to watch in Orange Bowl: Oregon’s Noah Whittington and Texas Tech’s David Bailey
Oregon’s running game is among the best in the country, ranking 13th with an average of 217 yards per game. Though the Ducks have plenty of options in that regard, Noah Whittington is the every-down back, leading the team with 116 carries for 798 yards.
The Ducks will need to get the run game going, but that’ll be a challenge against Texas Tech’s top-rated rushing defense, which gives up an average of 68.5 yards per game. For context, just three teams have run for over 100 yards against the Red Raiders this season, Kansas State topping out at 126 yards on the ground.
Assuming the Red Raiders remain stout in the run game, that’ll put more focus on Tech’s star EDGE rusher David Bailey. The Stanford transfer has seen Oregon before, but he’s reached a new level of consistency with the Red Raiders. Bailey is second in the nation with 13.5 sacks, and he’ll try to get a few more against Oregon quarterback Dante Moore. Opponents, though, have had a hard time getting to Moore, the Ducks having surrendered only 14 sacks this season.
Who has the edge between Texas Tech, Oregon in College Football Playoff quarterfinal
Texas Tech’s offense vs. Oregon’s defense: Oregon
Oregon’s offense vs. Texas Tech’s defense: Texas Tech
Specialists: Oregon
Score prediction for Texas Tech football vs Oregon in CFP quarterfinal Orange Bowl
Oregon 35, Texas Tech 31: Both teams are as good as advertised, but it’s also fair to say the Ducks have had tougher competition, at least in relation to how talented they are. Texas Tech has dominated everyone, while Oregon has at least been challenged. The Red Raiders succumb to a lack of close games, leaving them ill-prepared for a fist fight such as this.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Who has edge in CFP quarterfinal between Texas Tech, Oregon football?
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