Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Prediction: ReliaQuest Bowl Game Preview
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Both Iowa and Vanderbilt are expected to be largely at full strength when they meet for the first time in the ReliaQuest Bowl. The Hawkeyes are bowl-eligible for a 13th consecutive season, one of the longest active streaks in the FBS, while the Commodores are going bowling in back-to-back seasons for the first time in over a decade.
No. 14 Vanderbilt (10-2) just missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff in the best season in program history. The Commodores can build on that record-breaking season in their final game with Heisman Trophy runner-up Diego Pavia under center. Star tight end Eli Stowers is the only notable opt-out for coach Clark Lea’s team.
No. 23 Iowa (8-4) was a tough out all year, losing by one score to rival Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon and USC, two of which qualified for the CFP. Coach Kirk Ferentz doesn’t expect any opt-outs, making this one of the best games to watch in bowl season between upper echelon teams from the so-called Power 2 conferences (SEC and Big Ten). Michigan’s upset win over Alabama in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl interrupted a run of four straight SEC victories over teams from the Big Ten.
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The Hawkeyes are 1-3 in their last four bowl trips, and they are 3-3 all-time in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Vanderbilt won the Birmingham Bowl a season ago, its first postseason appearance since 2018, and is making its first debut in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 23 Iowa vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt Odds, Details
Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.
Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 31 at Noon ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Vanderbilt -4.5
Over/Under: 46.5
Announcers: Roy Philpott, Sam Acho
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt: Keys to Victory
Why Iowa Will Win The ReliaQuest Bowl
The Hawkeyes finished sixth nationally in points allowed per game, and four of the teams ahead of them made the CFP. Iowa held as many teams to single digits (four) as times it allowed 20-plus points. Moving the ball on Ferentz’s defense is a herculean task — just ask Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, two projected first-round picks. The Hawkeyes landed three defensive backs on an All-Big Ten Team, and they can muck things up in the trenches, too. Opponents fared better — though not much better — running the ball at Iowa, which has plenty of beef up front.
By the standards of the Hawkeyes’ historically woeful offenses, 2025 was a step in the right direction. The arrival of quarterback Mark Gronowski didn’t turn Iowa into Patrick Mahomes’ Texas Tech teams, but he did make opponents respect the pass while adding value as a runner. Gronowski led the team with 15 rushing touchdowns and he scored on the ground in all but one game. He and running back Kamari Moulton led the charge for one of the most efficient run games in the Big Ten, aided by an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award.
Iowa always finds an edge on special teams, and this season was no different. Return specialist Kaden Wetjen led the FBS in punt return yards and took back three punts (plus one kickoff) to earn all-conference honors.
Why Vanderbilt Will Win The ReliaQuest Bowl
The Commodores were last seen laying waste to Tennessee for their first win in Knoxville since 2017. Then Pavia lost the Heisman, a result that evidently did not sit right with him. This is his last chance to go out on top in his long and winding college football career. Beyond his impressive season-long statistics, consider the tear he’s been on since the loss to Texas. Pavia has racked up 1,414 total yards and 12 total touchdowns on Vandy’s three-game winning streak.
Pavia leads the ’Dores in rushing, but Sedrick Alexander is coming off a 100-yard game and a hat trick against Tennessee. Together, they lead one of the best rushing attacks in the SEC. And while Pavia will be without Stovers, his top target, wide receivers Tre Richardson and Junior Sherrill have demonstrated an ability to stretch the field.
Vandy’s defense still leaves something to be desired, as seen in losses to Alabama and Texas and a near-loss to Auburn. But the Commodores’ weakness is in the secondary. Their run defense holds its own, so they should match up well against an offense like Iowa. Vanderbilt has also fared better in one-score games with a 3-1 mark in that scenario compared to a 2-4 record for the Hawkeyes.
ReliaQuest Bowl Prediction: Vanderbilt 28, Iowa 23
It’s hard to imagine Pavia allowing his team to lose this game after what he’s willed the Commodores to the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes certainly will not roll over, but Vanderbilt has gone up against tough defenses all season long and held serve. After the program’s best season ever, Pavia and Co. will pick up another victory to further etch this team into Nashville lore.
ATS: Vanderbilt -4.5
O/U: Over 46.5
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 30, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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