College Football Playoff: One thing all 8 teams must do to win in quarterfinals

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The 2025-26 College Football Playoff quarterfinal round is upon us with eight of the nation’s best teams clashing on both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The margins are only going to get tighter as these heavyweights progress deeper into the 12-team bracket and each matchup will present a narrow pathway to victory.

These coaching staffs have most likely spent every waking hour of the holidays looking over film of their quarterfinal opponents to identify tendencies, weaknesses, and players to watch in order to concoct a proper plan of attack. Our analysis won’t be nearly as in depth as their’s of course, but we’ll keep it simple and identify one thing each team must accomplish in the quarterfinals to survive and advance to the next round.

Wednesday, December 31

No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)

Miami: Get Julian Sayin off schedule

Miami got to this point by surviving a rock fight against Texas A&M in the first round and it will most likely have to drag the reigning national champions into the dirt to win of New Year’s Eve. Ohio State has had an incredibly efficient offense this season thanks in large part to Julian Sayin keeping them ahead of schedule and it bears out with him leading the nation with a 59.4% success rate. It’s imperative for the Hurricanes to jam him into 2nd/3rd and long situations throughout the evening, forcing him to rely on explosive plays. It goes without saying that they shouldn’t allow the Heisman Trophy finalist to get into a rhythm and walk them down the field.

Ohio State: Force Carson Beck into 35+ pass attempts

Mark Fletcher Jr. ended up being the true difference maker for Miami against Texas A&M late, as his 56-yard run on their final drive helped set up the go-ahead touchdown with 1:44 left. Fletcher individually has had a good year, but the Canes’ rushing attack has been surprisingly middling with an average of just 151.9 yards per game and a poor -0.06 EPA per rush. Ohio State cutting Fletcher off entirely would put pressure squarely on Carson Beck’s shoulders and we’ve seen him shrivel in these situations. Dating back to his last year at Georgia in 2024, Beck has thrown multiple interceptions in six of the last eight starts where he has attempted at least 35 passes. Yes, the threat of Malachi Toney is a major problem the Buckeyes will have to deal with, but there’s a good chance that the Miami QB will toss them a few if they force him to keep chucking it.

Thursday, January 1

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Orange Bowl)

Texas Tech: Continue to wreak havoc on defense

Texas Tech boasts the nation’s No. 3 defense in SP+ heading into the Orange Bowl and it’s apt considering the doom the unit has unleashed all season long. The Red Raiders have the No. 1 havoc rate in the country at 19.5% as they’ve led the nation with 31 takeaways while ranking in the top 10 in tackles for loss. The objective is simple: make this a nightmare game for Dante Moore. That’s easier said than done, but Indiana proved in its 30-20 victory over Oregon that it is possible. The Hoosiers harassed Moore with four sacks and two interceptions in that game and if there’s any unit that can replicate that, it’s one led by Daivid Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez.

Oregon: Win the field position battle

The Red Raiders’ relentless defense has overshadowed the fact that their offense is ranked No. 2 in SP+ and there are a few stats that should be noted. Texas Tech has the second-best starting field position in the country with an average drive starting on their own 33, and that’s directly correlated to their havoc plays on the other side of the ball. However, they typically don’t start drives well as they are ranked 125th in early-downs EPA, so the offense has been aided by being close to midfield when it gets rolling. Tech’s lone loss of the season to Arizona State featured several drives that immediately stalled out deep in their own territory and it will be crucially important for Oregon’s special teams to plant them behind the 25 throughout the afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium.

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (Rose Bowl)

Alabama: Find a way to run the dang ball

Alabama’s total inability to run the football this year has been a jarring thing to witness considering the program’s pedigree in that department. The Crimson Tide ranks 118th nationally in rushing with just 109.9 yards per game off an abysmal 3.4 yards per carry. Sure, Jam Miller’s injuries throughout the year have factored into that, but this doesn’t come close to the ground production needed to win a national title. It can’t all fall on Ty Simpson’s shoulders. But, there is still a chance to reverse course when it matters. Indiana’s closest games this year have involved an opposing rushers breaking off at least 70 rushing yards and Ohio State’s Bo Jackson put up 83 against the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship Game. If the Tide can get a few big runs out of Miller or Daniel Hill, then they’ll have a shot.

Indiana: Limit explosive plays through the air

Game on Paper’s metrics have Alabama at a disadvantage in most categories for this matchup except passing explosive rate, where it actually ranks in the 85th percentile on offense. Ty Simpson has 3,500 passing yards on the year heading into the Rose Bowl and he’s been able to make big throws downfield while spreading the wealth around with 10 different Tide receivers having at least 11 receptions. That’s where First Team All-Big Ten defensive backs D’Angelo Ponds and Louis Moore will play vital roles for Indiana, with Ponds most likely being tasked with containing lead Tide wideout Germie Bernard. If the Hoosier secondary can limit the number of 15+ yard completions for Simpson and company, they’ll be in a pretty good spot in Pasadena.

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (Sugar Bowl)

Ole Miss: Turn red-zone trips into touchdowns

Ole Miss fell to Georgia in a 43-35 loss back in October and will get another crack at proving itself against the SEC Champions in the Superdome. Georgia has put its foot down since then and has held its last four opponents to 10 points or less entering this game. Explosives will be hard to come by for Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy, and company, so they’ll have to sustain long drives deep into Bulldog territory to have a shot. The problem there is that the Dawgs have the eighth-best red-zone defense in the country with opponents turning just 71% of those trips inside the 20 into points. The good news for the Rebels is that they were able to do this in their previous matchup against this team with four of their five touchdowns coming inside the red area. They’re going to have to do it again and that will be a tall order with the way UGA has ramped things up down the stretch.

Georgia: Punish the Rebs on the ground

If there is one glaring weakness that could sink the Rebels in the Superdome, it’s their weak run defense that ranks 132nd in the country in EPA per rush. Ole Miss has given up just over 1,900 rushing yards for the year entering this game and was shredded for 4.26 yards per rush. That doesn’t necessarily spell good news when going up against an effective rushing unit led by Nate Frazier, Chauncey Bowens, and even Gunner Stockton. And with a top-30 3rd/4th down success rate in the country, you know Kirby Smart is just giddy about the idea of them eating up clock and grinding Ole Miss into dust on the ground. It should be noted that starting center Drew Bobo has been once again ruled out with a foot/ankle injury, but they managed to keep things moving without him in the SEC Championship Game.

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