Land-Grant’s experts make Ohio State-Miami predictions

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Being the Buckeye beat’s black sheep blog, we here at Land-Grant Holy Land like to pat ourselves on the back. So, throughout the season, members of our staff will be making predictions about that day’s game. They will go on the record with what they think the final score will be, who the game’s MVP will be, and what the major storyline will be coming out of the day.

This evening, at 7:30 p.m. ET, the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) will open their College Football Playoff title defense against the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (11-2) in the Cotton Bowl. As of the writing of this article, the Buckeyes are 9.5-point favorites, with the total points mark set at 41.5 points. So that means that the Vegas oddsmakers see the game as finishing somewhere in the ballpark of 26-16 in favor of OSU.

Check out what our staff members think and then let us know your thoughts on the game in the comments below. As we move forward with the season, you will be able to keep up with just how well our prognosticators do on a weekly basis HERE.

Alex Frank

Score Prediction: Ohio State 38, Miami 17
Offensive MVP: Jeremiah Smith is from Miami, so you know he will be ready to rock on Wednesday night. After a quiet game against Indiana, Smith will go off for eight receptions that total 149 yards and two touchdowns. This will remind everybody why Smith is the best receiver in the country.
Defensive MVP: Ohio State’s defense has been dominant all season. They’ve been led by their defensive front and Caleb Downs, but I think Jermaine Mathews Jr. is due for a big game against Miami. Whether he’s covering Malachi Toney or C.J. Daniels, I believe Mathews is going to take that challenge in stride and have multiple passes defensed and an interception. Mathews will set the tone early against Miami’s receivers and quarterback Carson Beck.
Major Storyline: It turns out, Ryan Day really is one of the best offensive play-callers in the country. With distractions put aside, Day, Brian Hartline, Julian Sayin, and the Buckeyes’ offense will remind everyone why they, too, are part of what’s been a dominant season from the Buckeyes so far. Jeremiah Smith delivers a huge performance, and Bo Jackson shreds Miami’s stout defensive line with some big runs to put away the Canes early in the second half. Any doubts surrounding Day and the Buckeyes have been squashed. They are the best team in the country and the team to beat in this year’s College Football Playoff.

Joey Gertz

Score Prediction: Ohio State 24, Miami 13
Offensive MVP: Jeremiah Smith will be the offensive MVP. The wide receiver has been patiently waiting to get a shot at his hometown Hurricanes. I think he’s going to have a big night: 7 catches, 110 yards, 1 touchdown
Defensive MVP: Caleb Downs. The field general. I trust the best players in the biggest games, and I expect Downs to wreak havoc on Miami’s offense.
Major Storyline: Sometimes a loss is the best medicine. The version of Ohio State we see against Miami looks exponentially better than the one we saw against Indiana.

Justin Golba

Score Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 17
Offensive MVP: I am going to go with the low-hanging fruit and say Jeremiah Smith. In a game that will be very defensive-minded, I think Smith will have upwards of 8 catches, 100 yards, and 1 touchdown against a team that he is very familiar with.
Defensive MVP: Kayden McDonald will be the game’s defensive MVP. Miami has a great running game with Mark Fletcher Jr., and McDonald is good enough to completely blow up The U’s rushing attack. Fletcher will have a decent game, but McDonald will do enough to slow him down.
Major Storyline: Ryan Day taking over play-calling will be a good thing, and fans will feel comfortable heading into the Georgia game (assuming they beat Ole Miss) with Day back as the main signal caller. I think Day having the final say and Brian Hartline, Billy Fessler, and Keenan Bailey all helping with the game plan is best best-case scenario for the OSU offense.

Dan Hessler

Score Prediction: Ohio State 31, Miami 13
Offensive MVP: Carnell Tate takes advantage of being fully healthy and Jeremiah Smith drawing double coverage. Tate gets 100+ yards and two touchdowns.
Defensive MVP: Arvell Reese is going to make life difficult for Miami’s offense all day. He gets three tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and forces a turnover.
Major Storyline: Ohio State gets back on track after the loss to Indiana and looks better than last year’s team. The major storyline will be how dominant they look with just two wins to go to win back-to-back titles.

Caleb Houser

Score Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 13
Offensive MVP: Jeremiah Smith will notch two touchdowns in the game along with 114 yards on eight catches, further proving why he’s the best receiver in the country.
Defensive MVP: Sonny Styles will be the defensive MVP, totaling 11 tackles with two for a loss. He once again proves that he’s the man in the middle with all of the knowledge and power to run this defense at a high level.
Major Storyline: Ohio State finds the offensive firepower it had been blessed with and stays in 10 and 11-personnel most of the night, doing its most damage through the air. The defense settles in and pitches a second-half shutout of the Hurricanes.

Brett Ludwiczak

Score Prediction: Ohio State 28, Miami 17
Offensive MVP: Not only will the sensational Jeremiah Smith have something to prove after being passed over for the Biletnikoff Award, but he is also a Miami native. The sophomore doesn’t quite match the yardage total that he put up in the Rose Bowl last year, but he does find the end zone twice to help the Buckeyes move on to the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
Defensive MVP: Caleb Downs already has previous experience going against Carson Beck from Alabama’s meeting with Georgia in 2023, so he knows some of the Miami quarterback’s tendencies. Downs has ramped up his play in bigger games, and Wednesday night will be no different as he picks off at least one of Beck’s passes.
Major Storyline: With many national pundits thinking Miami is going to cause the Buckeyes a lot of problems, Ohio State wears down the Hurricanes and gets back to its winning ways after the loss to Indiana. The Buckeye defense gets after Beck all game long and turns the football over a few times, setting Julian Sayin up with some short fields to allow Ryan Day’s squad to claim their spot in the Fiesta Bowl.

Gene Ross

Score Prediction: Ohio State 24, Miami 13
Offensive MVP: Sophomore receiver Jeremiah Smith shows Miami what they missed out on in his recruitment with a 100+ yard, two-touchdown performance.
Defensive MVP: Caden Curry continues his dominant stretch of play from the Big Ten Championship, recording two sacks and a forced fumble
Major Storyline: Ohio State returns to form offensively, with Smith and Carnell Tate leading the way. Ryan Day returns to play-calling with a similar style from last year’s CFP run.

Matt Tamanini

Score Prediction: Ohio State 35, Miami 10
Offensive MVP: Ryan Day… or perhaps more appropriately, Dark Ryan Day will be the most valuable “player” for Ohio State in this game. In my mind, there has never been a doubt that OSU’s head coach could call plays as well, if not better than, anyone else in college football. But in today’s day and age, it doesn’t behoove the man in charge to spend the time studying and scheming to do it to the best of his ability when he has so many other CEO-level responsibilities that demand his time.

But, given over three weeks to tinker with the offense, including a week and a half to focus specifically on Miami’s suffocating defense, I expect Day to put the pedal to the metal and finally flex all of the skill-position muscles that he has at his disposal, especially since Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith are fully healthy.
Defensive MVP: I don’t anticipate Miami being able to move the ball or score all that much, but they do have a couple of significant playmakers in wide receiver Malachi Toney and running back Mark Fletcher. The latter went for 172 of Miami’s 175 rushing yards against Texas A&M in the first round of the CFP, but 548 of his 857 rushing yards this season have come between the tackles. That is where Kayden McDonald — the Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year — lives. KMac and friends are going to clog up those holes and limit the one-time Buckeye commit to under 60 yards rushing.
Major Storyline: Just like they did last year, the Buckeyes have found another gear to kick it into for the postseason. The defense remains dominant, but Matt Patricia found even more new ways to limit Miami’s ability to move the ball. And then, on offense, despite The U having an incredible defensive front, OSU is able to pick up chunks of yards with quick plays, misdirection, and plays and schemes they haven’t had to show all year.

Cole VanWiechen

Score Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 13
Offensive MVP: With Miami likely selling out to stop Jeremiah Smith, I think Carnell Tate will be Ohio State’s offensive MVP. I expect him to have over 100 yards and a touchdown in this game and have the kind of performance that reinforces his top-10 NFL Draft potential.
Defensive MVP: I think Davison Igbinosun will be Ohio State’s defensive MVP in this game because of the job he will do covering Malachi Toney. I project Iggy to have a pick in this game and add a big tackle for loss or forced fumble as well. I also expect him and Toney to be jawing back and forth all game, and maybe he can get the true freshman out of his element.
Major Storyline: Playoff Ryan Day is back. I think we will see Ohio State come out very aggressively on offense, just like they did in the playoff last season. And I think it’ll be pretty clear by halftime that Day is fully in control of calling the plays again.

Ryan Weckstein

Score Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 10
Offensive MVP: Miami is very good in the trenches. The Buckeyes will try to remain balanced between the run and the pass, but Miami has some studs on their line, headlined by Ruben Bain. Jeremiah Smith should be able to steal the show, however, with six catches for 90 yards and a highlight touchdown.
Defensive MVP: This is a type of game where your stars need to emerge. That being said, look out for Caleb Downs. He will have a pass breakup and an interception to seal this game for the Bucks.
Major Storyline: Ohio State will start off slow in this game. After almost a whole month off, the offense will stall while the defense will hold steady. This changes in the second half when the Buckeyes will score back-to-back touchdowns.

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