Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat but he's optimistic about USC's future

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SAN ANTONIO – Lincoln Riley had a smile on his face as he sat in front of the media following USC’s 30-27 loss to TCU in the Alamo Bowl.

Riley had just watched his team blow a double-digit lead with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter, then surrender a walk-off 35-yard touchdown on third-and-20 in overtime. It should’ve been a moment of frustration. Instead, he smirked, already thinking about the future.

“This place is doing all the things that you need to do to put yourself in position to go bust that door down and do it,” Riley said. “I really believe a window here has opened up and it’s taken a lot of effort by a lot of people, a lot of commitment by a lot of people. Four fun but really challenging years to get it open. And it’s open now.”

It’s a window most USC fans thought opened four years ago, when the Trojans hired Riley to lead the program back to national championship contention. He was 38 at the time, a prodigy head coach who had just guided Oklahoma to a 56-10 record over five seasons, finishing in the Top 10 every year.

He had never won a national championship, but his teams were always close and USC was desperate for that kind of sustained relevance. The Trojans had spent the post-Pete Carroll era cycling through coaches while struggling to remain nationally relevant under Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron, Steve Sarkisian and Clay Helton.

The truth is, Riley hasn’t been much different than his predecessors. After the Alamo Bowl loss, he has a 35-18 record through four seasons at USC.

Lane Kiffin’s record through four USC seasons from 2010 to 2013 (including games coached by interim replacements after he was fired) was 35-17.

Clay Helton’s record through five seasons from 2016 to 2020, during a tenure defined by hot-seat speculation and eventual dismissal, was 39-19.

Riley reportedly signed a 10-year, $100 million contract in 2022 as the hottest name in college football. Since then, he has morphed into an overpriced version of Kiffin and Helton, proof that money can buy hype, but it can’t guarantee results.

As one booster texted me Tuesday night, “There are cheaper ways to go 35-18 with far fewer headaches.”

USC’s goal, of course, is not to go 35-18. But at some point, the Trojans have to look in the mirror and ask why Riley, Kiffin, Sarkisian, and Orgeron all reached the College Football Playoff before or after their time at USC, yet none could get there while coaching USC. 

As USC enters 2026 following its Alamo Bowl collapse, Riley is on the hot seat for the first time since arriving in Los Angeles. His contract and looming buyout once shielded him from any real danger. But heading into his fifth season, those concerns are gone.

If Riley doesn’t lead USC to the playoff next season, he will be gone. He has been given a longer rope than any USC coach since 2009. That rope will tighten quickly if the results don’t change.

The coaching carousel of recent years has proven buyouts don’t scare the elite anymore. Texas A&M paid $77 million to move on from Jimbo Fisher. LSU shelled out $54 million to dismiss Brian Kelly. Penn State paid James Franklin close to $50 million to find another job a year after he led the Nittany Lions to the playoff

The difference is Riley, still just 42, would immediately become one of the most coveted names in coaching if USC cut ties with him. His Oklahoma resume would still be his sales pitch. USC would be spun as his reset; much like Sarkisian, Kiffin, and Orgeron all reframed their careers after leaving Los Angeles.

There is still a glimmer of hope for Riley to reshape his tenure at USC, which is why he was unusually optimistic about his future following the Alamo Bowl loss. 

USC will welcome the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class next season. It's the first time a non-SEC program has topped the rankings in 18 years. A major reason for that optimism can be traced to a hire USC made one year ago, when it named Chad Bowden as football general manager. Bowden previously held the same role at Notre Dame, which played in last season’s national championship game.

USC is also opening a new $50 million, state-of-the-art training facility this summer, one that will instantly rank among the best in the country.

“Working at USC is not anybody’s right. It’s a privilege,” Riley told me after the Alamo Bowl loss. “Those of us that have the privilege to come back know what our job is. It’s to make the efforts of all those people worth it.”

He’ll get that chance next season.

He also knows the privilege won’t be extended beyond it if he fails to deliver.

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