Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (CFP Semifinal): No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon

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When: Jan. 9 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN

The College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl brings a high-stakes rematch between the unbeaten Indiana Hoosiers and the surging Oregon Ducks, with Indiana entering as a modest favorite in most betting markets. The Hoosiers opened 4.5-point favorite after dominating Alabama in their quarterfinal matchup, and their 30–20 regular-season win over Oregon in Eugene.

Previous Meeting

Fernando Mendoza threw for 215 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown as Indiana left Eugene with a win over Oregon at Autzen Stadium. Roman Hemby scored twice on the ground, and the Hoosiers’ defense limited Oregon throughout the game, handing the Ducks their first Big Ten regular-season loss and snapping an 18-game home winning streak. After Oregon briefly tied the game on a pick-six early in the fourth quarter, Mendoza responded with an 8-yard touchdown pass to Elijah Sarratt to seal the victory, marking Indiana’s first win over a top-five opponent since 1967.

Dante Moore went 21 of 34 for 186 yards with a 44-yard touchdown to Malik Benson and 2 interceptions. Jordon Davison had 59 rushing yards and Bryce Boettcher  had 11 tackles.

Quarterfinal Statements

Indiana erased any lingering doubts about its championship credentials in the quarterfinals, overwhelming Alabama with physicality, balance, and defensive consistency. The Hoosiers controlled the line of scrimmage, leaned on a top-10 rushing attack led by Roman Hemby, and avoided putting quarterback Fernando Mendoza into difficult situations. After a slow start, the Heisman winner settled in and engineered multiple long scoring drives, while Indiana’s defense once again proved capable of dictating tempo against elite competition.

Oregon, meanwhile, advanced by making a statement of its own on the defensive side of the ball. After being challenged publicly by Dan Lanning, the Ducks responded with a dominant shutout of Texas Tech, forcing four turnovers and limiting the high-powered Red Raider offense to just 215 yards. Oregon’s edge defenders disrupted the pocket throughout the game, and the secondary capitalized on mistakes, producing the program’s first bowl shutout in more than a century. Multiple sacks by Tatum Tuioti and a strip-sack by Matayo Uiagalelei and a pair of Brandon Finney Jr interceptions helped kill any momentum by Texas Tech.

High Stakes Rematch

The Peach Bowl will feature two of the most complete teams in the country, as reflected in their scoring metrics on both sides of the ball. Led by the Heisman winner in Mendoza, running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, receivers Omar Cooper Jr and Elija Sarratt, Indiana enters the game averaging 41.6 points per game, ranking third nationally. Behind the efforts of Moore, Davidson, Malik Benson and Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon is close behind at 38.0 points per contest, ninth overall. Defensively, the Hoosiers have been even more imposing, allowing just 10.3 points per game. That’s second in the nation with key defenders D’Angelo Ponds (CB), Mikail Kamara (LB/EDGE), Aiden Fisher (LB), and Amare Ferrell (SS).  

Oregon’s defense that was so stout against TTU is sixth in the nation with 15.1 points allowed. Led by Finney, Boettcher, Uiagalelei, Tuioti, and safety Dillion Thieneman, the Duck defense is peaking at the right time. Though they caught flack for their late-game showing against JMU in their first round playoff game.

The numbers underscore a showdown between explosive offenses and disciplined, top-tier defenses, with both teams built to score efficiently while limiting opponents’ opportunities.

The rematch dynamic looms large in both the matchup and the betting line. Indiana won the first meeting by double digits despite a costly pick-six and held Oregon without an offensive touchdown for more than 50 minutes. That result explains why the Hoosiers are favored again, though the Ducks’ defensive surge has tightened expectations, with the total settling in the high-40s and signaling a more physical, lower-scoring game.

For Indiana, a trip to the national title game likely depends on repeating its formula from October: controlling the trenches, maintaining run-pass balance, and limiting Oregon’s explosive plays. For Oregon, the path forward hinges on offensive efficiency. The Ducks were knocked out of rhythm in the quarterfinals, struggled to establish the run, and faced too many high-leverage fourth downs. If Oregon can find balance early, protect the football, and let its defense stay aggressive, the Ducks have a realistic chance to flip the script in Atlanta.

Point Spread & Moneyline
Indiana enters as the favorite, with the current spread at -4.5 points on the money line (Indiana −192; Oregon +158). Oregon is not surprising as the underdog considering the Ducks only blemish this season was the home loss earlier this year.

Duck Outlook

Just last year a Big 10 team suffered a loss in Eugene, missed the conference championship game, blasted an overmatched opponent in the first round, won its quarterfinal game in convincing fashion and avenged its only loss during its run to winning the national title. Oregon has followed that playbook pretty well so far. All that remains is to avenge the loss to Indiana and the Ducks are in the title game.

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