Indiana vs Oregon Prediction: CFP Semifinal at the Peach Bowl
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Are we done now with the “I can’t believe Indiana is in the College Football Playoff Semifinals” phase?
Yes, Indiana is in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl with a real shot to play for the national championship. Get used to it.
It wasn’t all that long ago – okay, so it was – that Oregon was that “I can’t believe Oregon is in the national title discussion” good.
Now it’s even better than it was in 2001, and 2005, and 2010, and 2014.
What to Know for the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Peach Bowl
Indiana ripped through Alabama like it was some low-level MAC team fighting for an early December bowl slot.
The precision, the calm, the cool, the dominance – it was the ease with which the Hoosiers won that seemed stunning to everyone on a national basis.
(Hint: Alabama wasn’t that great – more on that in a moment.)
Meanwhile, was Texas Tech really that good?
It owned the Big 12, was the hot team that the betting public was all in on, and …
Oregon beat the Red Raiders like it was a light scrimmage.
The Ducks have geared it up at the right time, getting through James Madison without a problem, and then cranking up the defensive intensity in a 23-0 win.
Now the Ducks get their chance to make amends for that 30-20 loss in Eugene back in the middle of the season. Oh, by the way …
How To Watch Indiana vs Oregon
Date: Friday, January 9, 2026
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
@PeteFiutak
Why Oregon Will Win
Indiana beat Oregon on October 11th, 2025. That became the biggest game of the season. What was the biggest game of the 2024 Big Ten season?
Oregon beat Ohio State – on October 12th. What happened after that?
No, Oregon won’t do to Indiana what Ohio State did to the Ducks in the Rose Bowl, but sometimes, teams find their footing late in the game. Oregon is playing at a whole other level now.
The Ducks have more talent than Indiana. They have more speed, more skill, more guys, and unlike Alabama this year, they have the mojo. They’re playing better than they have all season.
Okay, so what are they going to do differently than in the loss the first time around?
Lost in the history of that game was Indiana’s offensive production – it was the lowest of the year, tied with the date with Penn State. That came down to a fantastic comeback.
But here’s what’s lost – Oregon’s defense was just that good.
Oregon only put up 326 yards, but USC was the only team to put up more until James Madison went off in the first round of the CFP.
Why Indiana Will Win
Does this team look like it’s having a hard time with success?
Alabama wasn’t bad early on in the Rose Bowl. Indiana was too precise and too good. No, the Crimson Tide didn’t quit, but they sure looked like they didn’t have any answers.
Everyone keeps waiting for the bubble to pop.
Indiana might have the technique, and the coaching, and … no one is as razor-sharp as this bunch.
No one runs routes like Charlie Becker and Elijah Sarratt. No one has lines that don’t take a wasted step like the Hoosiers do. And … yeah, they’re just that good.
Indiana played its B- game against Oregon the first time around, and it still managed to win in Eugene by ten.
Yeah, the Ducks are fantastic. They also got the free space game against James Madison, and the Texas Tech not-ready-for-primetime-players, at least on offense.
Nothing changes. No panic, control the lines, get to the quarterback enough to apply pressure, and assume Fernando Mendoza will make the right reads and the right plays.
Oregon ran through everyone but Texas Tech – the defensive line did its part in the loss to the Ducks – and Indiana. The Hoosiers came up with big stops on every midrange through, and forced Oregon into two very, very big interceptions, and …
Indiana vs Oregon Prediction, Betting Lines
Oregon ran well in the first game, but it stopped.
Give Indiana credit for taking Oregon out of its game, but this is a different Duck team now. It’s like they were waiting for this moment.
They’ve been faster, more aggressive, and tougher – at least when they had their focus – against the run.
Indiana is that good, but to keep hammering this home, so was Texas Tech. Oregon is playing with the sort of menacing style of a team that blew it last year and knows it needed to take the intensity up another level.
Remember, Oregon stuffed the Hoosier offense the first time around, for the most part. So did Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State – all four of the challenging games the Hoosiers had to deal with.
Oregon’s defense will come up with the right performance to get to the national championship.
Oregon 26, Indiana 24
Line: Indiana -3.5, o/u: 46.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Miami vs Ole Miss Prediction: CFP Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl
This story was originally published by College Football News on Jan 6, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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