Keys to victory for Miami, Ole Miss in Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

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The number of national championship football hopefuls is down to four.

The first of two semifinals, Thursday, Jan. 8, will feature No. 10 Miami (12-2) and No. 6 Mississippi (13-1) in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, while No. 1 Indiana (14-0) and No. 5 Oregon (13-1) will square off in the Peach Bowl a day later.

This will be the fourth time the Fiesta Bowl has served as a semifinal, with the other occasions being 2016, 2019 and 2022.

Miami advanced with a first-round win over Texas A&M, 10-3, and a quarterfinal upset of Ohio State, 24-14. Mississippi advanced with a 41-10 win over Tulane, then a 39-34 win over No. 3 Georgia in the quarterfinal.

This is Miami’s fifth appearance in the Fiesta Bowl. It is 0-4. This is Mississippi’s first trip to this bowl game.

The winners of the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl will square off for the national championship at 5:30 p.m. on Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium, so Miami could be playing in its own backyard if it gets past the Rebels.

Let’s take a closer look at the Fiesta Bowl matchup:

No. 10 Miami (12-2) vs. No. 6 Mississippi (13-1)

Time/Site: 5:30 p.m. State Farm Stadium, Glendale.

TV: ESPN.

Series history: Mississippi leads 2-1, but it has been a long time since they played. The last time they squared off came in 1951, and Miami prevailed 20-7. Mississippi won games in 1936 (14-0) and 1940 (21-7).

Storylines

The biggest storyline is the fact that this is a national championship semifinal game between two teams that scored upsets in their respective quarterfinal games, but there is so much more.

Former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin jumped ship in late November to take the vacant head coaching position at LSU, two days after his team beat rival Mississippi State in the regular-season finale. Kiffin had wanted to continue coaching the Rebels in the CFP even after he informed Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter he was leaving for LSU, but the administration nixed that idea.

Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has taken over in Kiffin’s absence and was given the permanent job rather than just serving as an interim coach.

Coaching matchup

Mario Cristobal, Miami (fourth year, 34-18): Cristobal, 55, is back at the school for which he played offensive line from 1989-92, playing on two national championship teams there. His first head coaching gig came at Florida International, also located in Miami. He later worked under Nick Saban at Alabama and served as an assistant to Willie Taggart at Oregon in 2017. In 2018, he took over for Taggart and remained the head coach there until returning to his alma mater.

Pete Golding, Mississippi (first year): Golding, 41, was the defensive coordinator for Ole Miss until Kiffin bolted for LSU. He was named head coach on Nov. 30, 2025, and is 2-0 in the College Football Playoff since. Golding was hired by Kiffin in 2023 and has been defensive coordinator at Alabama under Saban (2018-22). The Crimson Tide won the national title in 2020 and three SEC titles while Golding was defensive coordinator. Golding was also defensive coordinator at Texas-San Antonio for two seasons before Alabama, and has coached at Southern Mississippi, Southeastern Louisiana, Tusculum and Delta State.

Mississippi will win if . . .

Trinidad Chambliss has another huge game and avoids turnovers: Chambliss has gone from opening the season as a backup to being the bona fide QB1, and his NFL stock is rising. His eight 300-yard passing games this season include the quarterfinal, when Chambliss torched Georgia for 362 yards with two touchdown throws and was never sacked. Chambliss threw only three interceptions all season, and he’s also a threat to run, with 520 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. The Rebels’ offensive line is in the spotlight as to how well it can protect Chambliss against a ferocious Hurricanes pass rush.

The Ole Miss defense can limit Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr.: Fletcher had six carries in a game on Nov. 22. But he’s become the Hurricanes’ feature back, with 172 rushing yards at Texas A&M in the first round and 90 against Ohio State and its dominant defense. If Mississippi can force Miami quarterback Carson Beck to throw often and make Miami more one-dimensional, it could be a deciding factor in the Fiesta Bowl. Ole Miss has been solid in pass coverage this season and could come up with a takeaway or two.

Kewan Lacy runs wild: Lacy, the Rebels’ top running back, ranks third in the nation in rushing with 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns. He’s agreed to a deal to return to Ole Miss next season, as reported by several outlets early on Tuesday, Jan. 6. Lacy is averaging five yards a carry in the two College Football Playoff games as a major part of the Rebels’ prolific offense, with 37 carries for 185 yards and three rushing touchdowns combined.

Miami will in if . . . .

It exerts its will at the line of scrimmage: Miami ranks third in the nation in sacks (46), trailing only Oklahoma and Texas A&M, but it has really amped up the pressure come the postseason. It had five in the win over Ohio State, and seven against Texas A&M. Senior Akheem Mesidor leads the team with eight solos and five assists, and has also forced four fumbles. Junior Rueben Bain Jr. is second with seven solos and three assisted sacks.

Carson Beck controls the game: The Miami quarterback is 296-for-398 (74.4%) for 3,313 yards and 27 touchdowns. He is only 17th in passing yards, but that efficiency is second only to Ohio State’s Julian Sayin. As a quarterback at Georgia for three years before going to Miami, few have played in as many big games against elite competition. No doubt, he won’t be overwhelmed by the moment.

They said it

Mississippi coach Pete Golding, on whether or not it will help, having played against Carson Beck when he was at Georgia: “You always study the past of people to try to get tendencies of things on them. No different than when you’re playing a different offense or a different defense. You’re looking over the history of what’s created problems for them and what’s been issues, and what they’ve done really well and what they have not done well. So that goes for every quarterback. So, there’s some familiarity to play with him, but he’s very experienced. He’s been very successful everywhere he’s been. He’s always had that team competing at a championship level and being in the playoffs. So, we expect nothing different. A guy that has a ton of experience, that’s calm, has got really good composure, has a good understanding of the system at this point.”

Mississippi quarterback Trinidad Chambliss on Miami’s defensive line: “They got dudes. Their front seven, their defensive line, they got dudes up front. They’re physical, high motor defense. And I know Coach (Mario) Cristobal will get those guys ready.”

Miami coach Mario Cristobal on Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss: “We have faced some really good ones throughout the course of the year, especially the last couple of weeks. Watching him on film, he’s a different level. He can do it all, and he has excelled in every aspect of the game. He certainly brings a ton of energy to their team. He’s a limitless football player, and you could see on the sideline, and watching some of the stuff on TV, his leadership skills and the way people gravitate to him. He’s had a tremendous impact on the program and plenty of respect for him.”

Miami’s offensive lineman Anez Cooper on Ole Miss: “You look at the quarterback, does an unbelievable job spreading the football around, extending plays, and just keeps them on track very well. The running back is very talented. I think he gets downhill. He makes the first guy miss. Runs between the line of scrimmage really well, but also can get the ball out on the perimeter. He’s a big play at any point. The skill on the perimeter is very talented. There’s a lot of different guys that take the top off, can make some plays in space. They can get the quick game out there.”

Who will win and why

Miami has the better defense and the experience of Beck on offense. The Hurricanes’ defense has proved it can limit high-octane offenses, and they’ve gone from a team fortunate to get into the College Football Playoff with two conference losses to a new level of physicality on both sides of the ball that two higher seeds could not match. Mississippi can score, as it proved in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. The question is whether the Rebels’ defense, which has been up and down this season, can rise to the occasion in what should be a lower-scoring game than the Sugar Bowl.

Prediction: Miami 27, Mississippi 24.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Miami, Ole Miss square off in Fiesta Bowl for title tilt berth

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