Previewing Oregon vs. Indiana CFP from Iowa football's perspective
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Who could have predicted that the Iowa Hawkeyes would be the team closest to taking down two of the teams in the College Football Playoff? Iowa was right there all year, but was unable to close out games against the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks, two teams they took to the brink, only to see it slip through their grasp late.
Tied 13-13 late, the Hawkeyes intercepted Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza to set themselves up deep in Indiana territory with a chance to run out the clock and pull off the upset. Mark Gronowski left the game with a knee injury, and Iowa was unable to convert the first down. The Hawkeyes then missed the field goal to take the lead. They ultimately lost 20-15, but held Indiana to their second-lowest scoring output of the year.
Against Oregon, in a rain-soaked Kinnick Stadium, the Hawkeyes engineered a 12-play, 93-yard drive to take the lead late. With rain pouring, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore made a perfect throw to Malik Benson that set up the game-winning field goal, to steal on 18-16. In a year where the Ducks have been explosive, it was the only time a team held them below 20 points.
Indiana vs. Oregon
These two met earlier this year in Eugene, and it was a moment many realized Indiana is for real. The Hoosiers went into Autzen Stadium and took down the Ducks 30-20. This matchup could sing a much different tune, especially with a trip to the College Football Playoff National Championship on the line.
Oregon has transformed over the last two playoff games. They rolled through James Madison and simply bullied Texas Tech to a 23-0 drubbing. Indiana embarrassed Alabama 38-3. Something has to give here.
Iowa elected to heat up Fernando Mendoza with blitzes, and it impacted him greatly. I think the Ducks elect to do the same and dare the Hoosiers to win on the ground. Indiana can play that game with the backfield duo of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.
For the Ducks' offense, the running game has to find something to alleviate pressure from quarterback Dante Moore, who has to have a monster game anyway. Running against Indiana hasn't been fruitful much of this year, and I'm not sure it will change in this game.
Dan Lanning is a master of motivation, though. Expect the Ducks to be ready for every punch Indiana throws and to throw them back just as hard. This game is going to be a fist fight and physical from start to finish. Indiana's ability to survive at Iowa and survive at Oregon gives them the edge here.
Prediction: Indiana 28, Oregon 21
Ole Miss vs. Miami
Can Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss score enough on the Miami defense to force the Hurricanes to open up Carson Beck? That has to be the recipe for success in this game if they want to win.
Ole Miss' offense is the most explosive one left in this playoff. Containing it is doable, but asking Miami to completely shut down the myriad of weapons they have on the ground and through the air is an entirely different ask. The Rebels will get some and make Miami come out of its shell.
The Hurricanes have avoided coming out of their shell offensively in the playoffs. Think of the 2021-2023 Iowa Hawkeyes' offenses. That is what Miami is doing. They are playing stingy defense and scoring just enough. Doing that against Ole Miss is a tougher ask and one that could doom them.
Ole Miss gets just enough going on offense, and Miami has too hard a time turning on the switch offensively to match.
Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Miami 21
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This article originally appeared on Hawkeyes Wire: Previewing Oregon vs. Indiana CFP from Iowa football's perspective
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