College Football Playoff bubble watch for Week 11

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The College Football Playoff selection committee has finally released its first rankings, and as expected, it did not follow the major polls. There is much more of a focus on actual resumes, though the eye test and efficiency rankings obviously trumped pure resume in some cases. Still, we know what teams the committee is looking at already and where those teams stand.

So, finally, we can look at a College Football Playoff bubble watch with actual data from the committee. Of course, resumes can and will change in the final four weeks of the season (plus conference championship games), but we can project out those possibilities as well.

Our bubble watch mentions 36 teams this week. Five of the teams on this list will earn auto-bids. (Technically someone from outside this list can earn an auto-bid, but the odds are infinitesimal at this point.) That leaves 31 potential teams for seven at-large spots–though as we’ll see, some of these teams need a lot of help to get on the right side of the bubble.

Big Ten teams and the College Football Playoff

Unlike last week, I’m saving this category for just Ohio State and Indiana. The Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are about to earn a “lock” status. 10-2 is good enough for either team––and frankly, there aren’t enough potential losses on the schedule for either of them. Indiana could be the first Playoff lock of the season with a win this week. Ohio State, which doesn’t have another bye, needs two more wins

Oregon should get in the Playoff at 10-2, but I moved them down to this category because none of the remaining games are going to be easy. Minnesota is the worst team on the schedule, and even the Gophers are a bowl team. Go 3-1 against Iowa, Minnesota, USC, and Washington and the Ducks will be a lock. But that’s easier said than done.

Michigan is probably a lock if it gets to 10-2. Even if that means a Big Ten Championship Game berth and a 10-3 finish, three solid losses and a win over Ohio State is a Playoff-worth resume. So why do I say a near-lock and not an actual lock? Well, the head-to-head loss to USC is a big problem, even if USC’s resume is slightly weaker overall (worse second loss, not as strong wins). Of course, if both USC and Michigan are 10-2, that means that Oregon is 10-2 (or worse) as well, so both of these teams might get in anyway.

Meanwhile, Iowa gets bumped up into this category as well because the committee clearly respects the Hawkeyes. Wins against Oregon and USC would put them squarely into a Playoff position.

The committee ranked Washington, which is honestly a bit surprising to me. There is very little meat on this resume––with the only valuable win being against Illinois. Of course, that’s far stronger than Tennessee’s resume, so maybe the committee just values close losses to top teams more than decent-but-not-great wing. Even with a win against Oregon to close the season, the resume is not a strong one in a normal bubble.

ACC teams and the College Football Playoff

The committee didn’t seem to love any of these resumes so far, but it doesn’t matter. All three of these teams can pick up good wins in the final month, and 11-1 will make any of them a Playoff lock.

The ACC might have three contenders right now, and I guess it could get four in the Playoff if these three and Miami win out the rest of the regular season. But all of these resumes are hanging on a thread, so even one loss could end any of their seasons. (Georgia Tech can probably get in at 10-2 if it beats Georgia.)

The ACC gets a new category this week, because I can’t call 10-2 Miami a lock anymore. That win over Notre Dame is still paying dividends, as is the win over South Florida. But the committee apparently wasn’t that impressed so far, and none of the remaining games (except a season-ending matchup with Pitt) add much more than those two do.

SMU is the rare three-loss team in the bubble watch, but a 9-3 SMU team would be tough to ignore. The Mustangs have no bad losses (no great ones), just picked up a win over Miami, and still have to face Louisville.

Pitt does have a bad loss, which is why I don’t have them in the “win out and probably in” category. The rivalry loss to West Virginia really hurts. But the Panthers close the regular season against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami. A 10-2 Pitt team would have a stronger collection of wins than any other bubble team. (Also, if both Louisville and Virginia win out, Pitt can go 10-2 and still miss the ACC Championship Game, so no risk of a third loss there.) Pitt also got a boost when the committee ranked the Panthers despite that bad loss and very little meet on the resume so far. It’s actually a bit of a baffling decision, but I’m sure Pitt won’t complain.

Big 12 teams and the College Football Playoff

BYU is the weakest undefeated team in the committee’s rankings this week, but that’s fine. Games remain against TCU, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati, so we’ll learn very soon just how good these Cougars are. Either (or both) of these teams are probably locks at 11-2, so getting to the Big 12 Championship Game at 11-1 will be enough.

Cincinnati wasn’t ranked by the committee this week after being thumped by Utah, but a game remains against BYU to make a good impression. The Bearcats are probably at the very bottom of the bubble even at 12-2, so they’ll need chaos.

The committee really liked Utah, though it’s not so obvious why. Regardless, the Utes don’t have another chance at earning a quality win, so even winning out and going 10-2 doesn’t put them in great position.

TCU has a weak resume right now and wasn’t ranked by the committee, but it closes the season with four of the best Big 12 teams. The final four opponents have a combined seven losses on the season so far. Win those four, and this resume suddenly looks a lot stronger.

SEC teams and the College Football Playoff

Texas A&M is two wins away from the Playoff––and the Aggies still have a game against FCS Samford on the schedule. Most of these one-loss teams can possibly get in the Playoff with one more loss, but it’s too soon to say who or with confidence. Ole Miss has almost lost a lot of games, but the most dangerous opponents are behind the Rebels.

Texas is the only two-loss team in this bubble watch that I’m saying is a near-lock if it wins out. Two of the final three games are against Georgia and Texas A&M. Add that to the Oklahoma win and a 10-2 resume with that schedule is in the Playoff, easy.

All three of these teams have very strong potential 10-2 resumes. Oklahoma has that win over Michigan plus a game against Alabama left on the schedule. Missouri still has to face Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Vanderbilt’s resume is pretty weak once you really look at it, and will probably get weaker as the season goes on. Still, with the committee putting the Commodores at No. 16 to start, it’s hard to think 10-2 won’t be enough for them.

LSU is the only other three-loss team to appear in this bubble watch (after SMU), and I don’t expect the Tigers to stay here long. The program is in disarray, and that can’t help the locker room, but this is still a team with a decent resume. All three losses are to potential Playoff teams, and two of them were very close. Plus, a win over Alabama could go a very long way to making a resume statement. And LSU still gets to finish the season at Oklahoma.

Others when it comes to the College Football Playoff

Lastly, I need to mention a few more teams. The top five conference champions all get at-large bids. And while I don’t expect any at-larges from outside the Power 4, it’s not impossible for a sixth conference champion to get an at-large bid. So the potential Mountain West champion, if it’s San Diego State, could get an at-large. So could a team from the American. South Florida, Navy, Memphis, and North Texas need a mention for now, if we get some chaos.

And, of course, we can’t forget Notre Dame (which we accidentally did two weeks ago). If the Irish go 10-2 they have a real shot at the Playoff––especially if Boise State, USC, and Navy keep winning.

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: College Football Playoff bubble watch for Week 11

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