Projecting Texas A&M's 2026 Over/Under Win Total
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The 2025 season was a breakthrough for Texas A&M. The Aggies not only won double-digit games for the first time since 2012, their debut in the SEC, but they also finally broke through to the College Football Playoff.
Texas A&M started out 11-0 in coach Mike Elko’s second season in College Station with wins at Notre Dame and LSU. Still, in the finale the the Aggies again lost to rival Texas, extending their losing streak in the series to three games (and 15 years). The Aggies’ regular-season showing was more than enough to secure an at-large bid in the CFP. But in its playoff debut, Texas A&M lost to eventual runner-up Miami, mustering just a field goal in a 10-3 defeat.
Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas are the only SEC teams with more wins over the last two seasons than the Aggies. Finishing strong has been an issue for A&M, though. Elko and Co. are a combined 15-1 in August, September and October since the start of 2024 but just 4-6 in November and December.
The Aggies enter 2026 among the favorites in the SEC and thus profile as one of the top teams in the country. Quarterback Marcel Reed is back for his third season as the starter. Though A&M is losing its leading rusher and receiver, Rueben Owens II and Mario Craver are both prepared to step into larger roles. There’s considerable turnover to deal with on the offensive line and all over the defense. Reinforcements arrived in the transfer portal to round out a roster that remains one of the most talented in college football.
Texas A&M was dealt one of the hardest schedules in its conference. And the back half looks especially difficult with road trips to Alabama and Oklahoma, along with a visit from Texas. Can the Aggies survive a late-season skid and flirt with perfection? Or are they set to take a step back?
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood debate and where Texas A&M’s over/under win total should be set for the ’26 regular season
Projecting Texas A&M’s 2026 Regular Season Over/Under Win Total
Steven Lassan: 9.5
The Aggies are slightly ahead of schedule under coach Mike Elko after winning 11 games and making the College Football Playoff last year. Replicating that run won’t be easy in ‘26. The new nine-game SEC slate is challenging, and the schedule features road treks to LSU, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. Elko’s team also hosts Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona State.
Texas A&M brings back 10 starters from last season, but there are plenty of personnel concerns. Can quarterback Marcel Reed take a step forward under new coordinator Holmon Wiggins after a disappointing end to the ‘25 campaign? The Aggies are also breaking in four new starters on the offensive line and navigating significant turnover on the defensive front. Despite those concerns, if Reed bounces back and the offensive line falls into place, Texas A&M’s offense should be just as productive as the ‘25 version. And Elko’s track record suggests he will find a way to piece together another solid defense.
Setting the number at 9.5 seems like the most reasonable preseason mark considering the schedule and personnel question marks. However, Texas A&M should have its sights set on contention for another playoff run with a 10-2 or 11-1 finish.
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Kyle Wood: 9.5
It might not seem like it, but the Aggies actually played a somewhat favorable schedule in 2025. Though they faced four top-25 teams in the regular season (and went 3-1 in those games), none of their opponents made the CFP. That’s unlikely to occur again with LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas all on the slate. Splitting those games would be admirable and would likely put Texas A&M right around the 10-win mark. In the SEC, that should be enough for a return trip to the playoff, as long as the Aggies avoid tripping up against the likes of Arizona State, Missouri or Tennessee.
With four new offensive line starters, the Aggies’ run game (and quarterback protection) might not be what it was in 2025. The same can be said for the defense, where the team’s top tackler and sack-getter have both moved on to the NFL. Elko has proven he can get the most out of a roster, but between the strength of the 2026 schedule and the roster turnover, a marginal step back could be in order for A&M. Bullish bettors can bank on another 10-plus win season, something the Aggies haven’t done since the 1990s.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 13, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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