2025 Alamo Bowl Prediction: USC vs TCU

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The 2025 Alamo Bowl between USC and TCU is exactly what the new world of college football is about.

If you’re not in the College Football Playoff, yeah, a bowl game might be fun, but whatever.

Assistant coaches are moving along, several players are either opting out or are in the portal, and these two will look nothing like the versions that were so much fun throughout the season.

USC vs TCU Matchups, Odds, and 2025 Alamo Bowl Pick

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

There’s still a shot that many USC players will end up playing, but late in the process, it appears to be losing a load of NFL talent. But this is still supposed to be a big game, if the Trojans can pull it off.

All that matters to most fans is whether you win or lose – nuance doesn’t play a role. Get to ten wins for just the second time since 2017, and it’ll be a terrific finish under Lincoln Riley with plenty of hope for a CFP run in 2026.

TCU has won four straight bowl games – not counting the College Football Playoff National Championship loss to Georgia – since 2016 and six of the last seven since 2014.

This should’ve been a better season for the Horned Frogs. They didn’t have to play Texas Tech or Utah, but they couldn’t maintain any consistency in Big 12 play. Even so, win this, and all that will matter is that TCU beat USC.

How To Watch USC vs TCU

Date: Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Game Time: 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
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College Football Playoff Predictions
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs Indiana
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs Miami
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs Texas Tech
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Ole Miss

Why TCU Will Win

Oct 18, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Kevorian Barnes (2) reacts after scoring a touchdown Baylor Bears during the second half of a game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Again, and this is all that really matters – USC will probably be without half of its starting 22.

That should include Biletnikoff-winning receiver Makai Lemon and second-leading playmaker Ja’Kobi Lane. Tight end Lake McRee opted out, the safety situation is interesting, and …

TCU is going to do what it does, no matter who’s running out of the tunnel wearing Trojan uniforms.

No, Horned Frog starting quarterback Josh Hoover won’t be around, but backup Ken Seals has been around the block a few times.

The fifth-year senior hasn’t seen much time with TCU over the last two years, but he got in plenty of work in his three seasons at Vanderbilt.

TCU has to take the fight to the Trojans and dictate the tempo from the start. Run on this bunch, get physical, and good things happen. USC is 2-3 when giving up more than 145 rushing yards, TCU is 6-0 when running for more than 115, and …

Why USC Will Win

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans running back King Miller (30) carries the ball down the field for a touchdown in the second half against the Georgia Southern Eagles at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

TCU doesn’t have its starting quarterback. USC has its star under center back for next year.

It wasn’t that big of a shocker when Jayden Maiava decided to stick – seriously, it’s never a bad career move to be Lincoln Riley’s starting quarterback – but it matters. That’s the tone-setter for 2026, and the offense should still be okay as long as he doesn’t force anything.

And yeah, there are tons of lost players for USC, but it’s not everyone. The running game should be okay against a TCU defense that struggles against teams that commit to the ground attack and don’t stop.

Maiava hitting the midrange throws is the best way to keep the thing moving, but USC wins when it hands it off 30 times. Notre Dame and Oregon held the Trojans in check, but the team is 8-1 – and that one was the quirky collapse against Illinois – when the offense doesn’t pound away over and over again.

TCU doesn’t care a whiff about the time of possession battle, and USC should take advantage of that. It won’t go slow, but the attack is great at keeping things moving on third downs. Don’t expect the normal explosion, but …

USC vs TCU Prediction, Betting Lines

TCU won’t be missing as many pieces as USC, but that won’t matter as long as Maiava is okay.

The Horned Frog pass rush will be good, and the offense will be on early, but it won’t be nearly enough as USC’s next men up will quickly prove just how bright the future will be.

It won’t be a dominant performance, but it will be telling. For the third straight year, the Trojans and Riley will find a way to get the O going in a bowl win.

USC 31, TCU 24
Line: USC -6.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2.5
Must See Rating: 3.5
– Bowl Schedule, Predictions, Lines

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 29, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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