2025 Gator Bowl Prediction: Missouri vs Virginia

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Your 2025 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl could be a blast if Missouri and Virginia each get their guys back.

Yeah, no duh, that goes for every bowl, but while there are plenty of rumors swirling around, these two seem to be holding the line when it comes to having enough guys to be close to regular-season-good – with a few key exceptions we’re still waiting on, but more on that in a moment.

What Missouri and Virginia Each Must Do to Win the Gator Bowl

Oct 11, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy (29) runs the ball during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

There’s no other way to put it – Virginia blew it.

It was sad, the program deserved a fantastic finish after a wonderful season and an amazing rise from the horrific tragedy from a few years ago. However, it lost the ACC Championship to Duke in overtime, and because of it, we were given two Group of Five champions, and the Miami-Notre Dame thing might have swung the other way.

Even so, this is a moment for head coach Tony Elliott. In his fourth year, he gave the program its first winning season since 2019. Now he’s trying to bring Virginia its first bowl win since 2018 and second since 2005.

Missouri was the master of meh.

It won eight games, but the only bowl-bound team it beat was Louisiana – who barely showed up in a 68 Ventures loss to Delaware.

By a mile, this would be the team’s best win of the season, and it would be the third straight bowl win under Eliah Drinkwitz.

Even more impressively, win, and the 30 victories would mark would tie for the best three-year run in school history.

How To Watch Missouri vs Virginia

Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
TV: ABC
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
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College Football Playoff Predictions
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs Indiana
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs Miami
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs Texas Tech
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Ole Miss

Why Missouri Will Win

Sep 13, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz on the field against the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns during the first half of the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. © Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Alright, forgive me if this is a bit all over the place, but I promise to update this on the fly if something changes.

Virginia could have a whole slew of opt-outs/transfers just before this all starts.

It hasn’t hit, and it might not, but if quarterback Chandler Morris chooses to move on, this all changes.

For now, even if Virginia is all back close to full, it’s going to have a hard time with the one guy who should be the star no matter what – Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy.

The Tigers might not have a few star offensive linemen, but for now, the front five should be fine.

Virginia’s run defense has been nasty all year, but it hasn’t seen anyone as good as Hardy or a ground game like this.

The Cavaliers were 8-0 when allowing 135 rushing yards or fewer, and 2-3 when allowing more. Hardy ran for 130 yards or more by himself in six of the last ten games, and only Auburn and Oklahoma held Mizzou to under 163 yards. However …

Why Virginia Will Win

Nov 16, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott watches in the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium.© Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

I know, I know … I’ve been a little cagey so far with this because the opt-out situation is so up in the air, but one guy who’s definitely gone is Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula.

He’s in the transfer portal, and while backup Matt Zollers was fine against Mississippi State, he only threw the ball 15 times and wasn’t great in losses to Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Also gone are wide receivers Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning – two of the team’s top receivers, and star tight end Brett Norfleet won’t be able to go.

So it’s Hardy and the Mizzou running game or bust.

As long as Chandler Morris is under center, Virginia will move the ball.

It was great on third downs all season long, the defense was even better at stopping teams on third downs, and all 11 guys will be trained on stopping Hardy.

Zollers has skills and upside, but the Cavaliers will take their chances that the Tiger pass catchers in place won’t be able to take over the game.

Missouri vs Virginia Prediction, Betting Lines

It’s a primetime Saturday night game on ABC.

What, you’re going to watch the Peacock-exclusive Baltimore vs Green Bay game that might be with fewer starting quarterbacks than the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl?

Missouri should be together enough and tough enough on both sides to win a slugfest. Neither team will air it out, and both defensive fronts will do a great job of getting into the backfield.

The Tigers will be a bit better at it, and they’ll be a little bit better in the field position battle.

Missouri 26, Virginia 20
Line: Missouri -4, o/u: 44.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 3.5
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This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 23, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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