2025 Music City Bowl Prediction: Tennessee vs Illinois
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Illinois and Tennessee could be one of the better under-the-radar matchups of the bowl season, even with the normal amount of opt-outs.
Over the years, the Music City Bowl has mostly come down to who’s missing. Last season, Missouri won a blast of battle against Iowa when the opt-outs were relatively minor overall, but when this thing goes wrong – like it did in an Auburn annihilation of Purdue in 2018, or the Iowa 2022 shutout over Kentucky … woof.
But this year it should be okay.
Tennessee vs Illinois: Matchup Breakdown, Odds, and Pick
Start with this – it’s the Music City Bowl in Nashville, Tennessee. There will be Vols fans.
It’s also not horribly far from Champaign, Illinois, but those who make the five-hour trip will probably be tucked up into a corner.
No matter – this is an Illinois program that loves to play the heel. Rewind to its Citrus Bowl win last season that South Carolina still seemingly hasn’t recovered from.
This hasn’t been the season everyone wanted from Illinois. It had a loaded team of veterans, and it was fine, but along with acceptable losses to Indiana, Ohio State, and Washington, it faceplanted against Wisconsin. Beat Tennessee, though, and it’ll be another great offseason.
The Vols were the definition of underwhelming this season. Not counting Mississippi State – a losing team that’s going to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl because no one else wanted to – there weren’t any wins over bowl teams.
They couldn’t handle Mr. Pavia and Vanderbilt, gacked away the Georgia loss in overtime, lost at home to Oklahoma, and weren’t all that close against an above-meh Alabama.
But get a win here, and it’ll be four straight seasons under Josh Heupel with nine wins or more. (By the way, Tennessee had four seasons with nine or more wins from 2006 to 2021.)
How To Watch Tennessee vs Illinois
Date: Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Game Time: 5:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
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Rose Bowl: Alabama vs Indiana
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Why Illinois Will Win
The Illinois opt-outs should be relatively minimal.
There will be a few missing pieces, but everyone who wants to play, can. For the most part, though, the Illini should be as close to whole as any power conference team playing in a bowl of this size.
Tennessee isn’t likely to miss a ton, but it’ll likely be without more starters and key parts than Illinois.
No, Tennessee hasn’t done much more than beat the mediocre, but it really is dangerous. However, what it doesn’t do well is stop teams that can complete a forward pass from doing that over and over again.
The Vols give up way too many short-to-midrange throws. They were hit for over 300 yards four times, and over 250 yards four other times, and that mainly matters when it comes to control.
No, the time of possession battle has never meant a whole lot to the team under Heupel, there’s usually a big problem when the Vol D gives up a ton of third down conversions.
Veteran Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is terrific when he’s in a groove. The team is 6-1 when he hits 65% or more of his passes, and Ohio State was the only blip when that didn’t happen. However …
Why Tennessee Will Win
Illinois has an Altmyer-gets-hit-too-much problem.
He’s careful not to take too many chances, but he’ll eat the ball. The Illinois offensive line isn’t awful, but this is one area that should need a few in-game tweaks depending on who suits up.
Illinois was one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in sacks allowed, and Tennessee brings one of the nation’s best pass rushes. The Vols will win more than their share of battles up front.
Yes, the Tennessee defense allows too many completed passes for too many yards, but there’s a flip side to that. Illinois loses when the quarterback on the other side is in a groove.
The Illini were 0-4 when allowing the other side to complete at least 70% of its passes, and it should’ve lost to USC – it was a late mini-miracle of an Illinois win – when Jayden Maiava completed 69%.
Now, to be fair, who completed 70% against Illinois? Some Mendoza guy, Juilan Sayin, Washington’s rising star Demond Williams Jr., and, okay, Wisconsin, but barely threw the ball five feet across the line.
Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar had a terrific season. He was excellent even in the losses – he was great against Georgia – and he has the ability to get hot, connecting on 70% of his throws four times.
Tennessee won all four with ease.
Tennessee vs Illinois Prediction, Betting Lines
Other than the Illinois thriller over USC, and the Tennessee thumping of Florida, neither team came through in anything big when the spotlight was on.
Oh sure, the Illini destroyed future ACC Champion Duke, but … nah. It could really, really use a strong close to make this season a success.
And so could Tennessee, especially in front of what will be a friendly crowd.
Be stunned if there aren’t a whole lot of points.
Both quarterbacks should be on, neither defense will come up with a slew of stops, and this should start to pick up early in the second half.
And this is where the control side should matter. Illinois will do a better job of taking the air out of the ball just enough to slow things down when it needs to late.
Illinois 34, Tennessee 31
Line: Tennessee -2.5, o/u: 61.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 4
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This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 29, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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