2025 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Prediction: NC State vs Memphis
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The Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl deserves a break.
It’s almost always a weekday bowl, sometimes in the middle of the day, and it should be fun. These are the games that bowlheads, geek out about.
But even though it’s usually had strong matchups – either between power conference teams, or a power league vs a high-end Group of Five program – these haven’t been close.
In the 16 versions of this bowl game since 2008, only four were decided by one score. This bowl is due.
Memphis is usually great in bowls. Ryan Silverfield went 4-0 in bowls – by the way, now Florida State head coach Mike Norvell was 0-4 – with wins in each of the last three years, but now he’s at Arkansas, and on the was is Charles Huff from Southern Miss. Assistant coach Reggie Howard will handle the duties.
On the other side, NC State hasn’t won a bowl game since 2017, going 0-5 since then under Dave Doeren. He has a good team in place for 2026, and making this the fifth season in the last six with eight or more wins would matter.
NC State vs Memphis: 2025 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Preview and Pick
How To Watch Memphis vs NC State
Date: Friday, December 19, 2025
Game Time: 2:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
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Why Memphis Will Win
The whole idea that teams sometimes have nothing to lose doesn’t fly.
Of course they do – they can lose the game, and they can lose a fun bowl battle that might be the last time several of these guys ever play football again. With that said, with Silverfield off doing Woo Pig Sooie chants, everyone is expecting the ACC team to own this game.
The pressure, for the most part, is off the Tigers.
But this is a dangerous team that won’t be intimidated in any way by the moment or the opponent.
Memphis beat Arkansas earlier in the year – fan bases and people who do coach hires tend to fall for anyone who beats their team – and this team can get hot and crank up the offense against one of the nation’s worst defenses on third downs.
But to beat NC State, you have to bring the pass rush. You can’t let Wolfpack star quarterback CJ Bailey get comfortable, and the defense has to tackle on all the short to midrange throws. However …
Why NC State Will Win
The Memphis defense will attack, and it’ll get behind the line, but it doesn’t generate enough pressure to bother Mr. Bailey.
It’s been a rough run over the last several weeks for the Tigers. They’re coming into this on a three-game losing streak, as all the CFP promise and potential after the big win over USF went away.
Tulane and East Carolina both bombed away, Navy went Navy on the ground, and NC State has the parts to move the ball however it wants to.
No, the defense hasn’t been good enough, and Memphis will get its licks in, but as long as Bailey is connecting on at least 70% of his throws and keeping the chains steadily moving, the Wolfpack offense should be in control throughout.
All of a sudden, Memphis is having a hard time on third downs. If NC State’s porous defense is winning on the money plays, uh oh.
Memphis vs NC State Prediction, Betting Lines
This is one of those Want To games.
NC State should win, and it shouldn’t have too many problems as long as it plays like it did throughout November. But this is a prideful Memphis program that knows how to find ways to win.
The Tigers will bring the effort, and it’s up to NC State to do the same.
Memphis is usually better at controlling the game than NC State is, but the offensive line has to be decent. The Wolfpack defensive front doesn’t do anything to get into the backfield, but as long as it’s okay for a stretch or two, Bailey should be okay.
This will be a momentum game, and NC State will get it late in the second quarter after getting down early.
NC State 34, Memphis 24
Line: NC State -3.5, o/u: 56.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 3.5
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Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: 2025 Myrtle Beach Bowl Prediction: Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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