2026 Bowl Projections After Week Four
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Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly projections on how we think the bowls will play out. Huge thanks to everyone who’s checked them out so far this year. This past weekend was another exciting one on the gridiron, featuring three top-25 matchups in the SEC because “it just means more.” The results shook up our playoff teams a bit. We also bid farewell to two teams and had another rocket into our picks. At the head of the rankings, our top two teams won and kept their spots for another week. As always, if you want to see how things changed from last week, you can click here. With the formalities out of the way, let’s get to why you are here: our 2026 bowl projections after week four.
2026 Bowl Projections After Week Four
How The Process Works
Once again this year, we have a 12-team playoff with the top four still getting a first-round bye. However, the winners of the Power Four conferences don’t automatically get slots 1-4. In addition, the highest-ranked Group of Five team receives a bid. That leaves seven at-large teams. Once again, seeds 5-8 host first-round games on campus. The New Year’s Six bowls are introduced for the next round and the semifinals. Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas hosts the title game on January 25th. With the formalities out of the way, let’s get to our 2026 bowl projections after week three.
College Football Playoff First Round
Friday, December 18th- Provo, Utah- (9) Florida at (8) BYU- As a result of their 52-28 domination of Ole Miss, Jon Sumrall’s Gators rocket into our top 12 this week. They play at Missouri on Saturday. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars had last week off and travel to TCU this weekend.
Saturday, December 19th- Bloomington, Indiana- (11) Texas Tech at (6) Indiana- Penn State’s loss to Wisconsin opens the door for the Red Raiders to return to the top 12. They keep winning but haven’t been that impressive. Curt Cignetti’s club got all they could handle from Northwestern before winning 29-23. They travel to Rutgers on Saturday.
Saturday, December 19th- Tuscaloosa, Alabama- (10) Ole Miss at (7) Alabama- Despite their lopsided loss we didn’t drop the Rebels out of the playoff. They are off this week. The Crimson Tide had no trouble with South Carolina and head to Mississippi State for what is suddenly one of the weekend’s more interesting games.
Saturday, December 19th- Columbus, Ohio- (12) Boise St at (5) Ohio State- The Broncos remain our Group of Six squad. However, North Dakota State is hot on their heels. Behind another huge game from Jeremiah Smith, the Buckeyes dispatched Illinois. Ryan Day’s club travels to Iowa in the biggest game of the weekend.
Playoff Quarterfinals
Wednesday, December 30th- VRBO Fiesta Bowl- (6) Indiana vs. (3) Georgia- The Bulldogs had no trouble with Oklahoma winning by 28. These two schools have never met in history.
Friday, January 1st- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- (9) Florida vs. (1) Miami– We’re picking the Gators to upset BYU and set up a game with Miami. Darian Mensah had another huge week as the Hurricanes dispatched Central Michigan 52-3.
Friday, January 1st- Rose Bowl Presented By Prudential- (5) Ohio State vs. (4) Notre Dame- How’s this for a Rose Bowl game? We are projecting the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten and face the Irish in Pasadena.
Friday, January 1st- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- (7) Alabama vs. (2) Texas–Unless it happens in the SEC title game these two don’t play each other in the regular season. Arch Manning and the Longhorns got a big road win over Tennessee on Saturday.
That’s a lot to digest, but there’s still plenty more to come as we roll on with our 2026 bowl projections after week four.
College Football Playoff Semi-Finals And Finals
Thursday, January 14th- Capital One Orange Bowl- (4) Notre Dame vs. (1) Miami– We are picking the Irish to get past Ohio State and face the Hurricanes.
Friday, January 15th- Allstate Sugar Bowl- (3) Georgia vs. (2) Texas– The Bulldogs take care of Indiana to set up a semifinal showdown with the Longhorns.
Monday, January 25th- College Football National Championship- (2) Texas vs. (1) Miami– We remain unchanged from the preseason with our championship game pick.
That takes care of the playoffs, but there’s still tons more to go. Let’s get to the rest of the bowl games with our 2026 bowl projections after week four.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: January 2nd- Big Ten vs. SEC- Iowa vs. Tennessee- The Hawkeyes could crash the playoff party with a win over Ohio State on Saturday.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl- January 2nd- Big 12 vs. SEC- Auburn vs. West Virginia
ServPro First Responder Bowl- January 2nd- AAC/ACC-Big 12- Tulsa vs. Arizona State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl- December 30th- ACC vs. SEC- Virginia Tech vs. LSU- As we mentioned earlier, the Tigers drop out of the playoff despite their big win over Texas A&M.
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl: December 30th- Big Ten vs. SEC- Mississippi State vs. Michigan- The Bulldogs kept things rolling after knocking off Missouri.
Reliaquest Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Big Ten- Texas A&M vs. Penn State- As a result of their loss to Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions are out of the playoff and headed to Tampa.
Old El Paso Sun Bowl: December 31st- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12- Virginia vs. Arizona*- The Wildcats go to Texas as a legacy Pac-12 squad.
Las Vegas Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Pac-12- Oklahoma vs. USC*- Who wouldn’t be interested in seeing this one. The Trojans go to Vegas as a legacy Pac-12 squad.
Kinder’s Texas Bowl- December 31st- SEC vs. Big 12- Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
That’s our first group of picks. As we move along with our 2026 bowl projections after week four, let’s move to the contests after the big holiday.
Post-Christmas Games
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Louisville vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Duke vs. Wisconsin
68 Ventures Bowl: December 26th- Conference USA/Mid-American/Sun Belt- Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech
Cactus Bowl – December 26th: Big Ten vs. Big 12 – Nebraska vs. Kansas State – The former Rate Bowl is renamed the Cactus Bowl for 2026.
Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl: December 28th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Tulane vs. Wake Forest- That was quite the win for the Demon Deacons beating Louisville on the road.
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl- ACC vs. Pac-12- Clemson vs. Utah*- The Utes are a team to watch out for going forward for a playoff bid. For now they go to San Diego as a legacy Pac-12 squad.
JLab Birmingham Bowl: December 29th- American/ACC/SEC- Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Pop-Tarts Bowl: December 29th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big 12- SMU vs. Cincinnati
Valero Alamo Bowl: December 29th- Big 12 vs. Pac-12- Houston vs. Oregon*–Like the rest of college football, we’re keeping an eye on the status of Ducks quarterback Dante Moore.
We are moving right along with our 2026 bowl projections after week four. Time now for the opening contests of bowl season.
First Week Games
Cricket Celebration Bowl- December 12th- MEAC vs. SWAC- South Carolina State vs. Alabama State
IS4S Salute To Veterans Bowl: December 15th- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Appalachian State vs. Massachusetts
Frisco Football Classic- December 15th- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt- Louisiana vs. Kennesaw State
Boca Raton Bowl: December 18th- American/Conference USA/MAC/Mountain West/Sun Belt- Liberty vs. Marshall
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: December 19th- American/ACC/Notre Dame/SEC- Memphis vs. Kentucky- The Wildcats followed up their big win over Texas A&M by getting past South Alabama after a big second half. The Wildcats lead the all-time series 4-0. However, they haven’t played since 1957.
As we wrap up our 2026 bowl projections after week four, let’s move to the games before the big holiday. One thing you’ll notice is that there are a lot more games before Christmas this year.
Bowls Right Before Christmas
Myrtle Beach Bowl: December 21st- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Arkansas State vs. Central Michigan
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: December 21st- Mountain West vs. MAC- North Dakota State vs. Toledo- Not only are the Bison going to a bowl, but they’ve got a chance at being the Group of Six squad.
Puerto Rico Bowl- December 22nd- MAC vs. American/CUSA/MWC/SBC- Miami (Ohio) vs. East Carolina
StaffDNA Cure Bowl- December 22nd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- South Florida vs. UConn
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl- December 22nd- Big 12 vs. Conference USA/Pac 12- Central Florida vs. UCLA+- The Bruins go to Shreveport as a legacy Pac-12 school.
New Orleans Bowl: December 23rd- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt– Delaware vs. James Madison
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl- December 23rd- Big 12 vs. AAC/MWC/SBC- Baylor vs. Army
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: December 23rd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/MWC/SBC- Air Force vs. Oregon State
SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl- Pac-12 vs. Mountain West- San Diego State vs. Washington +- We have an old Pac-12 school filling the void with no Mountain West team available.
Isleta New Mexico Bowl- December 24th- MWC vs. AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- UNLV vs. Florida International
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: December 24th- American vs. Mountain West- Hawai’i vs. Colorado State
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: Date TBA- MAC vs. MWC- New Mexico vs. Buffalo
Thanks for checking out our 2026 bowl projections after week four here at Last Word On College Football.
Main Photo: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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