2026 FSU Schedule Preview: Florida Gators

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Florida State will once again close the regular season against archrival Florida, a game that has produced both the emotional high point and one of the lowest moments of Mike Norvell’s tenure in Tallahassee. The 45-38 win over the Gators on Black Friday in 2022 snapped a three game losing streak in the series and felt like a throwback to the rivalry’s Bowden vs. Spurrier glory years.

Last year’s 40-21 loss in Gainesville landed much differently. Florida looked like a program that had already checked out, was playing under an interim head coach, and still managed to push FSU around.

A 4-8 Florida team coached by an interim walked Florida State off the field in Gainesville, 40-21, with Jadan Baugh rushing for 266 yards. That was the Gators at their absolute lowest. Billy Napier had been fired, the program was in shambles, and Florida had nothing meaningful left to play for beyond spite. They still hung 40 on a Seminole team that needed the game to reach a bowl.

Florida State vs. Florida Gators

Date: Friday, Nov. 27, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida

Previous matchup: Florida won 40-21

All-time series: Florida leads 39-29-2

Florida Gators: 2026 Team Preview

2025 record: 4-8 (2-6 SEC)

Two things to know:

• Florida hired up while FSU is treading water. The Gators landed Jon Sumrall, who went 42-11 at Tulane and Troy, reached a conference title game every season, and arrived with the kind of obvious program juice Florida State has been trying to manufacture through patience and portal patches. He paired that with a serious staff, including $2 million offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White, and former NFL executive Dave Caldwell as general manager. Sumrall has never run an SEC program, so there is still projection baked into the hire. But first year coach with momentum, a clear plan, and a modern infrastructure is still a better place to be than Year 7 coach with a massive buyout, back to back losing seasons, and a fan base that has stopped believing the next reset is finally the real one.
• The roster is better than the record, which is both the case for optimism and the most Florida thing possible. The Gators have real SEC athletes, a dangerous running back in Jadan Baugh, upgraded receiving options, and enough defensive talent to make Florida State work. They also have a quarterback situation that went from DJ Lagway as the future to a battle between Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. That does not mean Florida is doomed, but it does mean the Gators are asking a new staff, a new quarterback, and a rebuilt identity to travel to Tallahassee on Thanksgiving weekend and look fully formed. That is a lot to ask.

Three key players

• RB Jadan Baugh: The obvious name and the one Florida State fans do not need reminded about. Baugh ran for 266 yards against the Seminoles last season, which was the kind of performance that should be projected on a wall in the FSU facility every morning until kickoff. He is the engine of Florida’s offense. If he controls the game, Florida can shorten things, protect its quarterback, and make this ugly. If FSU makes him earn everything, Florida’s offense becomes much easier to deal with.
• Dallas Wilson, WR. Wilson only played four games as a freshman because of foot injuries, but the former blue chip recruit still flashed the problem clearly enough: 12 catches, 174 yards, and three touchdowns in a limited cameo. The talent is obvious, and if he is healthy, Florida has a real WR1 for whoever wins the quarterback job.
• LB Myles Graham: Graham is the defensive piece who can turn Florida’s improved organization into something that feels suffocating. He can run, he can pressure, and he can blow up the kind of slow developing FSU possession that starts with hope and ends with a punt. If Florida State is playing behind the chains, Graham is one of the reasons the game can start to feel like it is slipping away.

Florida State vs. Florida Gators: Game preview, predictions

The optimistic version of this game is easy to write if you squint hard enough. Florida is breaking in a new staff. Florida lost DJ Lagway. Florida went 4-8 last year. Florida should still be figuring itself out.

The problem is that Florida State has not earned that kind of optimism.

This is a program that has gone 7-17 over the last two years, kept the head coach because the buyout was radioactive, and is now asking fans to believe that the next version of the rebuild is the real one.

Florida State should not be worried because Florida is suddenly some finished product under Jon Sumrall. Florida State should be worried because Sumrall may only need to make Florida competent. Competent may be enough. Organized may be enough. Physical may be enough. The Gators do not need to roll into Tallahassee looking like a playoff team. They only need to look like a team that knows what it wants to be.

Can FSU say the same with a straight face?

Best Case

The narrow hope against hope path is that FSU survives its brutal opening stretch, reaches the finale bowl eligible and with something still to play for, and Florida’s first year quarterback looks like a first year quarterback on the road. The Noles get just enough from Daniels, feed off a healthy Doak crowd, and steal one late to snap the streak, salvage the season, and buy Norvell another year.

It is possible. Just not likely.

Prediction: Florida State 24, Florida 21

Realistic Case

FSU enters the game hovering around .500 or worse, the fan base has largely checked out, and a more talented, better coached Florida team walks into Tallahassee as the favorite.

Baugh gets going early, the Gators play field position, and FSU starts pressing. The Seminoles hit a few plays and keep it close, but the game never feels within reach because Florida has the more reliable identity. That is the killer. Not that Florida is clearly elite. Not that Florida is dramatically more talented. Just that Florida looks like it knows how it wants to win.

Three straight losses to Florida would make the offseason questions a lot louder.

Prediction: Florida 31, Florida State 21

Worst Case

This becomes the game that makes everyone stop pretending the rivalry result is separate from the bigger program problem.

Florida fans travel well because they sense the opportunity. FSU fans show up ambivalent, angry, or stay home entirely. Doak has too much orange and blue in it by kickoff, and the anxiety only gets worse once Baugh starts ripping through arm tackles again.

The first half turns into a series of body blows before the head shot everyone in the stadium can feel coming. Baugh for five yards. Baugh for seven. Missed tackle. Third down conversion. Florida touchdown. FSU punt. Florida field goal. Another FSU three and out. Then Baugh breaks a 40 yarder to make it 17 to 0. The crowd turns toxic, and the entire game becomes a live reading of the case against Mike Norvell.

That is the nightmare. A third straight loss to a flawed Florida team. A third straight rivalry game where the Gators look tougher, more composed, and more comfortable in the moment. A third straight reminder that FSU can talk about standards all it wants, but the product keeps circling back to the same place.

Prediction: Florida 41, Florida State 14

2026 FSU football schedule

• Saturday, Aug. 29: New Mexico State Aggies (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee) | 7:00 p.m. (The CW)
• Monday, Sep. 7: SMU Mustangs (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee) | 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
• BYE
• Saturday, Sep. 19: Alabama Crimson Tide (Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.) | 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
• Saturday, Sep. 26: Central Arkansas Bears (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)
• Saturday, Oct. 3: Virginia Cavaliers (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)
• Friday, Oct. 9: Louisville Cardinals (Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Ky.) | 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
• Saturday, Oct. 17: Miami Hurricanes (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.)
• BYE
• Saturday, Oct. 31: Clemson Tigers (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)
• Saturday, Nov. 7: Boston College Eagles (Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Mass.)
• Friday, Nov. 13: Pitt Panthers (Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pa.) | 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
• Saturday, Nov. 21: NC State Wolfpack (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)
• Friday, Nov. 27: Florida Gators (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee) | 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos