2026 Missouri Football Opponent DEEP DIVE: kansas Jayhawks
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Welcome back to Rock M Nation’s annual opponent preview series of the upcoming season. Each week we will break down one opponent from the schedule in chronological order. Given that rosters are ever fluid – and this is done by a hobbyist rather than a pro – there could be some errors in history and current roster makeup. All mistakes are done on purpose and with ill intent because Nate Edwards doesn’t like you or your team.
Catch up on previous 2026 opponent previews!
Last year I went through the Edwards family history of the Border War. No need to do that again this year. (Editor’s Note: you should definitely read it again)
As a millennial who grew up in Columbia, Missouri during the Big 8/Big 12 days, kansas will always be the #1 rival to me, regardless of conference affiliation. And as much as a hate the stupid birds and their stupid colors, watching kansas run out of the tunnel in their terrorist red pants and seeing the animosity that the Mizzou students sang Mr. Brightside and the absolute buzzing energy for kickoff in week two of the 2025 college football season…it made me so very happy.
College football has changed a ton since I (or probably you!) was a kid and there’s been a lot of things that have been lost at the cost of plenty of things that got better. But losing the Border War was terrible, and the insistence of the shittiest football team in the Midwest to not play their biggest regional rival was an added insult to manage. Especially since plenty of kansas fans didn’t want to stop playing, and the additional fact that the administration didn’t consider restarting the rivalry until they actually got back to a respectable level of football.
Losers. All of them.
But if the Jayhawks finally exiting the wilderness with a competent coach was the only way this game came back, then that’s a trade I’ll make ten times out of ten.
Especially since Missouri beat them last year.
Even as Missouri fans, you can’t deny the impact that Leipold has had on the trajectory of the kansas football program. No, it’s not the lofty highs that Mark Mangino lifted them to in 2007 but Leipold inherited one of the worst P4 programs in the world – one without a winning season in 12 years – and immediately improved the product. After going winless in the last Les Miles season of 2020, Leipold won two games in ‘21 (despite slight regression in SP+ rankings), then 6 games in ‘22, and 9 games in ‘23, each paired with a massive leap in SP+.
The amount of work and effort to get kansas to the level of “slightly better than the average college football team” has to be respected, even though we know that this Sisyphus-ian task will see that boulder roll right back down the hill.
Here’s what kansas did last year:
The ‘24 5-7 campaign can absolutely be explained away: Jalon Daniels was hampered by injury (again) and the defense struggled to adapt to new coordinator D.K. McDonald’s scheme and tendencies. But, hey! Daniels returned for a bonus year and, even with some defensive attrition, the schedule laid out nicely for a good bounce back year and a redeeming close to Daniels’ collegiate career arc!
And then they played the games.
Every once in a while you get a schedule full of results that are very clear cut on the factor that determined the winner. kansas’ 2025 schedule is a great example of this!
kansas ranked 59th in the end-of-year SP+ rankings. Their record shook out thusly:
- Record against teams ranked 60th or worse in SP+: 5-0
- Record against teams ranked 58th or higher in SP+: 0-7
Now, that does include a one-score loss against Cincinnati where the Jayhawks played at a post-game win expectancy of 74%, which SP+ would view as a win on paper. However, you’re not paying a football coach $7 million per year to say, “Well ACTUALLY, we played at a level where we really went 6.5-5.5” when you just rattled off your second straight 5-7 season while losing to your most hated rival in football for the first time in 14 years.
The fact of the matter is that kansas regressed on offense and defense, went 1-2 in one-score games, and fell nine spots in SP+ to replicate another 5-7 season with no postseason to speak of.
“Kansas football coach” doesn’t come with a ton of expectations, but when you raise the bar, most people would like to see that bar be hit again. Two straight years of falling well below a 9-win season probably isn’t sitting well with the decision makers in Lawrence.
Coaching Staff
Lance Leipold – 6th Year – 27-35 (16-29)
Coach Leipold is a miracle worker, one who can take overlooked programs and build them to viable contenders through scheme, culture, and development of overlooked players. He created a dynasty at Wisconsin-Whitewater, turned Buffalo into a legitimate conference contender, and had kansas on a three-year rocket ship to 9 wins and Heisman talk.
But some programs need more than a miracle.
Even with offensive mad scientist Andy Kotelnicki at the helm and the squirrely Jalon Daniels at quarterback, the offense declined in ‘23 and ‘24, and D.K. McDonald failed to replicate the defensive success that Brian Borland found, and so the Jayhawks fell from the perch of a 9-win 2023 season to consecutive 5-7 seasons.
Staff churn is part of the game in any industry you work, but especially in college football. Leipold lost OC Kotelnicki to Penn State and Jim Zebrowski couldn’t replicate the success. DC Brian Borland retired and D.K. McDonald couldn’t replicate the success. It happens. But head coaches need to be ready to (and be good at) replace their assistants and Leipold hasn’t found the right guy yet. Having Kotelnicki return as an ambiguous “associate head coach” means that his decades-long experience working with Leipold in an offensive capacity will return, and Kotelnicki could potentially be Leopold’s replacement if things don’t go well. Still, ‘26 is a “prove it” year for Leipold and, because I like the guy as a coach, I hope he does well. But because he’s the football coach for kansas, I hope they lose all their games by 50 and he’s sent packing.
Assistant Staff
Kotelnicki is back, which would seemingly mean Jim Zebrowski ceases to be the sole coordinator for offense, but I haven’t seen anything that would highlight the exact work load management those two will balance. The rest of the staff stays intact, as does the defense staff. For their sakes, let’s hope some staff continuity leads to some improvement.
Roster Movement
Kansas cut a lot of fat in their portal losses. Depending on how you view North Dakota State, kansas lost either three or four guys to peer programs, while every other portal loss went down to the G5, FCS, or has yet to be picked up by a program. On the one hand, that’s good, it shows the program is identifying guys that aren’t going to cut it at this level and now they can go play somewhere that’s better situated for their skill set. On the other hand, that means you had 25 guys on last year’s roster that the power market has no interest in and a fifth of them aren’t even on a team anymore. Is that the reason they haven’t had a winning season in two years? Maybe.
But with at least 25 slots opened, what did they replace those guys with?
The answer: projects. MORE PROJECTS. Kansas imported a ton of players that were dwindling on the bench of better programs, and sprinkled in top performers from lower-level/under-achieving programs. Running backs Jalen Dupree, Dylan Edwards, and Yasin Willis? All excellent producers on bad teams. Nik McMillan and Nahzae Cox are big play receivers from the G5. Nick Morrow and Connor Stroh are really good linemen who were stuck behind someone else at power programs. And all the defenders they brought in flashed briefly but needed a spot to start. Projects and potential were the order of the day for this portal haul, and despite ranking 52nd in the nation and 12th in the XII, these 31 additions seem like the exact sort of player that Leipold likes and has shown an ability to utilize quickly to make an impact.
Also, former Missouri offensive tackle Brandon Solis is on this roster. Boo, sir. Boo.
The high school recruiting class mirrored the portal class, as it ranked 60th in the nation and 12th in the XII but features a lone blue-chipper and a bunch of 3-star projects. Quarterback Jaylen Mason is interesting because, 1.) kansas recruited another quarterback with some version of “Jalon” as a name, and 2.) his high school tape is super intriguing. Platte City’s Jack Utz is another name to remember as the tight end had offers from almost every school in the Midwest, as well as the aforementioned blue-chip offensive tackle Kaden Snyder. Coach Liepold will be the first to tell you, “Stars don’t matter,” and has the track record to back it up, so I’m not super concerned about any of the rankings of his talent acquisition.
It would be nice to not rank 12th in both classes, though.
Offense
From last year’s preview:
At its core, the Leipold-Kotelnicki offense is one that utilizes a lot of odd formations, plenty of pre-snap motion, and the deployment of skill position players that aren’t elite at any one thing but are pretty good at a lot of different things. This lets the offense not have to rely on scheming open their best player but, instead, scheme up scenarios that can counter whatever the defense has shown that they want to do. Anyone can look great because anyone can get the ball and you never quite know where it’s going given the amount of information the offense is going to present on any given play. At its root, though, is a screwball mixture of veer and triple-option concepts that rely on a quarterback that can think quick and run effectively paired with skill position players that are multi-faceted. When it works, it works.
Did it work in ‘25? Eh, kinda.
Even while featuring a seemingly healthy Jalon Daniels, kansas’ offense regressed to 48th in the nation; yes, that’s worse than the year where he was injured and backups would fill in.
But don’t pin this 100% on Daniels. First-year coordinator Jim Zebrowski struggled to scheme up easy throws and the offensive line was more porous than usual. Running backs Daniel Hishaw and Leshon Williams struggled to generate yards after contact, and again, they were getting hit a lot sooner than they were used to. Daniels wound up being the most effective runner, helping kansas rank 8th in Rushing SP+ (Missouri ranked 30th FYI) and 10th in Standard Downs Success Rate.
kansas was deadly when it was on schedule but 1.) struggled to stay on schedule, and 2.) struggled to get back on schedule.
Explosiveness was an issue (as it usually is for Leipold offenses) and ranking 71st in overall explosiveness and 88th in Yards Per Successful Play are the key indicators of that issue. Efficiency is always better than explosiveness but you need to be explosive at some point in a game/season and kansas wasn’t equipped to do that reliably.
The question, then, is if Andy Kotelnicki can reignite the explosive spark that they managed to harness in the early years of the Leipold tenure, and if the new pieces can hit that desired blend of efficiency and explosiveness that’s needed. On paper it looks good…but that was true for last year as well.
Quarterback
Chase Jenkins might as well have been constructed in a factory that only produces “Quarterbacks that Lance Leipold Likes”. He’s short, lean, super squirrely, and just got out of running the super-funky veer-inspired offense that Rice coach Scott Abell imported from his successful run at Davidson. I have no idea how the verbiage and reads differ between the two offenses but Jenkins has the exact skill set that Kotelnicki and Leipold want, and he’s got a full year’s experience of being QB1.
Running Backs
Yasin Willis, Jalen Dupree, and state-of-Kansas-traitor Dylan Edwards will be looked to supplement a ground game that became overly reliant on the quarterback last year. All three showed an elite ability to gain yards after contact – something that was sorely missing last year – which should be a good indicator of a potential upgrade. Quarterback Chase Jenkins is also an astute runner, and should be able to provide a level of rushing competence that will maintain the strength of last year’s unit.
Receivers
Last year’s passing attack was sorely missing a big-time threat through the air, so Leipold and friends went out and brought in two of those. Nik McMillan was 19 yards short of 1,000 at Buffalo last year, and his 61% catch rate paired with 9.7 yards per target is an enticing target for any offense to add. Nahzae Cox is a poorer version of McMillan but had to deal with a lot more focus from opposing defenses. There isn’t a ton of other proven options at this point, so unless Cam Pickett or a freshman wants to make the leap, those two will be the key targets for the overhauled passing game. How Albamy transfer tight end Carter Moses fits into the progression will also be important: he wasn’t the most reliable receiver but he was a yards-after-catch terror when he did get his hands on the ball.
Offensive Line
The line wasn’t as strong as it was in previous years and now they only return two starters? Is that good because the unit was lackluster last year, or bad because losing starters is never a good thing? The Jayhawks portalled in two guys with power-level starting experience as well as three other power-level bench warmers to help fill out the depth. The TL:DR…lots of options, not a lot of experience.
Defense
Coach Leipold usually has his offenses discussed the most, given his background and unique approach to that side of the ball. But whether it’s at kansas or Buffalo, the defense has been the main indicator of “is this a great Leiplod team?” and it’s the last thing that clicks into place. His Jayhawk defenses have never been elite but when kansas was winning 6 and 9 games, they were at least respectable and ranking in the low 60s.
That hasn’t been the case for the past two years and it’s been a big reason why the Jayhawks have seen their win totals diminish. Last year’s defense finished the year at 76th with the 60th-ranked rushing defense and 53rd-ranked passing defense. Their biggest issues: the passing defense allowed way too many big plays and opponents averaged nearly 5 points per scoring opportunity, which was 123rd in the country. And while the run defense was ok, opposing running backs averaged 1.89 yards before getting hit (115th) and then an extra 2.89 yards after getting hit (84th). And while kansas’ offense was stellar in standard downs and weak in passing downs, the kansas defense allowed offenses a 47% success rate on standard downs (70th) and ranked 96th in stopping passing downs.
Pair that with lackluster turnover luck and you see a defensive unit that didn’t have any strengths to lean on and a blueprint to effectively move the ball on them. Being the 103-ranked successful tackling team didn’t make things any better.
So what are they doing about this? The entire defensive staff returns, so no changes there. The coordinator stays the same, so no changes there. They lost 2 of their Top 3 interior defensive lineman and two of their top pass rushers, but do return their best linebacker and 3/5ths of their starting secondary. This could be a situation where the strengths flip, and an experienced secondary is able to shore up the holes while the line has to figure out how to work better. Which is probably why they portalled in five d-linemen while adding some highly productive G5 defenders in linebacker Jibreel Al-Amin from Marshall and corner Roman Pearson from Ball State. All other additions were sparsely used pieces; what you glean from that is up to you, but kansas returns a decent amount of defensive production so it might just be the case that they’re happy with what they had and selectively filled the weak spots.
So what does it all mean?
2026 might be the last Lance Leipold year at kansas if he can’t get bowl eligible which would be a sad ending for one of my favorite college football coaches (when he’s not working where he currently works). Outside of FCS Long Island and Middle Tennessee the schedule is not very forgiving; the XII’s strength and weakness is that all of its programs are jammed right in the same “pretty good/pretty bad depending on the year” territory, and a few weird bounces here and there can be the difference between conference champion and firing your coach. New pieces across the entire offense indicates a potential rough offensive start, while the defense could make a leap if their portal additions actually provide the expected value. This is a team that screams “6-6” to me but that’s highly dependent on the caliber of the rest of the conference.
For Missouri, this will be the first football trip to Lawrence since 2005 when they ignominiously lost 13-3. Missouri will be breaking in a ton of new pieces on both sides of the ball, and the Drinkwitz staff doesn’t have the most sterling road record.
However, Eli loves trophies, and this game has one. He seems to understand how important this game is and has done very well in rivalry games. Given the stakes and the roster I’ll lean towards Missouri getting their first win in the bad place since the George W. Bush administration.
We won’t entertain the thought of a loss. Just make sure it doesn’t happen.
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