2026 Missouri Football Opponent DEEP DIVE: Texas Longhorns
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Welcome back to Rock M Nation’s annual opponent preview series of the upcoming season. Each week we will break down one opponent from the schedule in chronological order. Given that rosters are ever fluid – and this is done by a hobbyist rather than a pro – there could be some errors in history and current roster makeup. All mistakes are done on purpose and with ill intent because Nate Edwards doesn’t like you or your team.
Catch up on previous 2026 opponent previews!
Texas is one of those Tiffany brands of college football that should never be bad. And yet…
Mack Brown thrived in the BCS era, compiling (and misplaying) all the talent in the world and appearing in the BCS Championship twice. But once he retired Texas struggled to find a suitable replacement that could do more than Mack, running through Charlie Strong (16-21 record at Texas) and Tom Herman (32-18) over seven years with very little to show for it.
The flagship university of the flagship state of football has nearly unlimited resources and access to one of the great football incubators in the world and yet mismanagement in the program, accentuated by one of the more over-meddling booster corps, kept Texas in a weird limbo of good enough to be preseason title contenders but not good enough to get the opportunity.
And while Steve Sarkisian is certainly not in the pantheon of the truly elite coaches, his tenure has seen enough consolidation of consistent win tallies that, from the outside anyway, Texas is almost back to the level they want to be.
But, again, succeeding in the BCS era is not the same as the NIL era, and if you track those charts of all the blue blood teams I preview, you can see the drop of elites ranking in the 30-34 point range of the mid-aughts down to today’s level of elite that falls in the 22-28 point range. It’s easier to get a shot at the Playoff, now, but harder to close. Sark has made the Playoff once and, seemingly, is all in this year to do so again. But will that be enough in the new 9-game SEC game lifestyle?
Anyway. Here’s what Texas did last year:
Texas played well enough in the opener at Ohio State that they had an 82% chance to win, but lost. Of course, they also had a 16% chance of winning at Kentucky and won anyway, so I guess that balances out a bit. The complete no show against a listless Florida remains one of the more confusing outcomes of the 2025 season, but they also managed close calls against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Getting whacked by Georgia eliminated their chances of an SEC title or realistic Playoff berth, but taking down Texas A&M had to be a super fun way to close out the regular season. This was a 9-win team that managed a 10-win season with a new quarterback and, essentially, no running game. Not bad for a down year, huh?
Coaching Staff
Steve Sarkisian – 6th Year – 48-20 (30-13)
Steve Sarkisian has had a wild ride of a career to the point where’s almost been three different coaches in one.
The first was the enigmatic quarterbacks coach for USC, working with Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert and turning them into Heisman-caliber quarterbacks that turn into 1st-round NFL Draft picks. That success led to a brief stint as an offensive coordinator, which of course turned into a five-year run as Washington’s head coach. He didn’t do great there – you don’t earn the nickname “seven win Steve” because people are happy! – but the Pete Carroll-coded nostalgia in Heritage Hall lead him to come back to LA to be USC’s head coach in 2014. Of course, public intoxication at school events and an addiction problem led him to resign from that post.
Then, Sarkisian became a high-demand offensive mind thanks to his stint at the Nick Saban School for Wayward Boys, starting as an assistant before becoming the Atlanta Falcon’s offensive coordinator, then heading back to Tuscaloosa to be Saban’s OC. This version of Sarkisian was a more controlled environment where he didn’t talk much but was able to utilize all the prized recruits that Saban would horde to craft some terrific offenses in Saban’s late-year “ok I’m embracing spread offense now” era.
Which leads us to Sark’s recent run as Texas’ head coach. After a tough post-COVID season debut, Sarkisian has ripped off 8, 12, 13, and 10 win seasons in a row, with that 10-win season being the “most disappointing” of the bunch by far. For all of his issues early in his career he seems to have struck a good balance between program management and offensive effectiveness, and other than the persistently-freaking-out mega boosters that sign the checks, most people seem content with the way that Sark has elevated Texas to consistent greatness.
Of course, this is Texas. Consistent greatness needs to be a mere stop gap on the road to elite and Sark ain’t there yet.
Assistant Staff
Sark’s assistant staff either has a.) prior experience at the school, or b.) prior experience with Sarkisian himself. After a good amount of defensive shakeup at the end of ‘24, the ‘25 staff returns almost completely intact. Yes, Blake Gideon is new but he’s a Texas Longhorn legend as a player and a highly regarded DC that is now a position coach. But the big change is in the actual coordinator chair.
Pete Kwiatkowski is a tremendous defensive coordinator. He got his start in the Pacific Northwest and worked for schools like Boise, Montana, and Washington, demonstrating sound tactics and good developmental chops for the guys he brought into the program. He seems to be universally respected in the community and a high-level add for any program lucky to earn his labor.
Unless you’re Texas, that is.
For whatever reason, Steve Sarkisian fired Kwiatkowski at the conclusion of the ‘25 campaign, despite Kwiatkowski’s defense carrying the team for a good chunk of the season, and never deploying a defense that finished worse than 18th over the past four years. But, yeah, Sark had no interest in keeping him and, instead, brought in his old friend (and former Texas head coach in waiting) Will Muschamp to manage the defense. Obviously Muschamp is a tremendous coordinator in his own right but, still, it’s very odd to make a lateral move like this for a guy who costs nearly $1 million more to employ.
Guess that’s just how they want to role in Texa$.
Roster Movement
25 portal losses is just business as usual at this point, but there is a very interesting detail about this batch of portal defections.
You see all those running backs that left for Kentucky, South Carolina, Purdue, and Florida State? Yeah…those are Texas’ top four running backs last year.
Now, as you’ll see in the next portion, Texas isn’t just magically running-back-poor at this point, but I do find it interesting the circumstance to which the 88th-best rushing team loses all of it’s running backs. If I had to guess I would think this was the coaching staff sitting them down and saying, “Hey, you all suck, get out,” but I’m just a guy in his basement writing about a team I know nothing about.
And here’s why the above statement mean very little. Texas – ahem, for our discussion purposes here I’ll utilize the lovely Texa$ – went on a portal shopping spree, bringing in two of the best running backs in the country in Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, as well as the best receiver on the market in Cam Coleman. They also nabbed several overperforming offensive lineman as well as some plus-grade defenders from on some terrible teams and, voila, Texa$ just built a title-contending team. If you can’t be good you might as well be rich because it offers a nice potential short cut to being elite. Everyone should be rich. Makes things a lot easier.
And, of course, after this mega portal spending spree that still had plenty left over in the bank to bring in the 7th-best high school recruiting class in the country (3rd in the SEC). 5-star Tyler Atkinson is a linebacker that is apparently pushing for early playing time, as well as well-rounded 4-star athlete Jermaine Bishop as a wide receiver. But if neither of those work out there are 14 other blue chippers that could break out. Hayward Howard is a delightful name to read, and of course naming a linebacker “Rocky Cummings” is just too much fun.
Offense
Given Steve Sarkisian’s offensive background, Texas’ money, and the name “Manning” on the back of their quarterback’s jersey, you’d expect the Longhorn offense to be pretty dang good, potentially one of the best in the country.
So you’ll understand that ranking 30th in SP+ on offense is a bit of a let down.
To be fair, Arch Manning wasn’t the problem, at least not towards the end of the year. But given the preseason Heisman hype and the small sample set of 2024, the slow start Manning trudged through in the opening salvo of the ‘25 campaign allowed observers to write off any chance of the younger Arch to impress during the year.
However, Texas wasn’t very good at any of the things you’d want to be good at on offense, and not all of that rests on the quarterback. The running game, in particular, was awful – 88th in the country! – and lacked any punch to add to an explosive-plays-only-oriented passing game. Texas was 9th in marginal explosiveness and 4th in turnover margin but struggled mightily at everything else and that was enough to keep the Horns’ offense in the “liability” category, even while ranking 30th in the country.
But last year’s offense isn’t this year’s offense, and the portal additions – plus a year of seasoning for the third generation Manning – should provide enough of a boost to get this offense back to levels that Sark and the Texas faithful expect.
Keyword: should.
Quarterback
No, Arch Manning wasn’t terrible last year. He also wasn’t elite, which might be the actual problem. Paying all that money to a Manning means “good” isn’t really acceptable, and throwing a third-year sophomore at Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas A&M added zero favors.
Still, Manning managed to throw for over 3,000 yards and add 537 sack-adjusted yards on the ground. At 6’4” and an alleged 230 pounds heading into this year, he’s bulked up a considerable amount, which is good given his crummy 5.4% sack rate.
The expectation is for Manning to make a leap. Sark has that history of getting great quarterbacks to the NFL. The NFL expects Manning’s to be great. Texas expects their quarterback to be great. No pressure, Arch.
Running Backs
There is no world where the Texas Longhorns should rank 88th in rushing offense and it seems the Texas staff agreed, essentially firing all of their running backs and bringing in stars Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers. Those two combined for over 2,000 yards and 10 touchdowns at their previous schools and immediately improve the Longhorn ground game. Also, don’t overlook Arch Manning who averaged nearly 8 yards per carry (sack adjusted). I feel confident in saying, by sheer talent import alone, the Longhorns ground game will be significantly better this year.
Receivers
The Longhorn passing game languished at 73rd in the nation, thanks to the fact that they could either connect on a 20+ yard bomb or have the pass fall incomplete. Ryan Wingo’s 55% catch rate paired with an 8.6 yards per target is the perfect encapsulation of Texas’ passing inefficiency, but just like the running game, reinforcements have arrived.
Cam Coleman – AKA the one good offensive thing in Auburn last year – is now a Texas Longhorn. That’s basically all you need to craft a deadly receiving corps but don’t overlook Wake Forest product Sterling Berkhalter and his explosive-oriented skill set. Michigan State tight end Michael Masunas is an efficiency-machine at tight end, boasting a 74% success rate for an equally bad Spartan offense last year. Again, the Texas passing game should be much better this year because of their spending on better players.
Offensive Line
I know it feels like you’re reading the same thing over and over, but Texas had some gaps to fill on the line and went out and brought in two of the most in-demand offensive linemen from the portal. Despite ranking 133rd in penalties the Texas offensive line was actually good for most of the season and return three guys who started among that group. Throwing Melvin Siani and Laurence Seymore in with that group should continue the good performance.
Defense
Texas’ defenses over the past five years tremendous, topping out at 2nd in 2024 and “falling down” to 18th last year. They didn’t excel at any particular aspect but were Top 40 in nearly every category across the board, and only averaged 18.1 points per game the last three seasons and only five teams scoring more than 20 points last season.
And, yet, the Texas defensive coordinator was fired at the conclusion of the season. Interesting.
If the enemy of “elite” is “great” then Sark fully believes that old pal Will Muschamp will be able to find elite status with his double-A-gap-pressure system and Texas’ stocked roster of talent.
I’m not even sure who you could pull out as the best defender. Colin Simmons, the SEC’s sack leader? Ty’Anthony Smith, the do-it-all linebacker? or maybe Jelani McDonald, the team leader in both tackles and interceptions last year? Add in dynamite Pitt transfer Rasheem Biles and all of his 24 havoc plays, plus Florida State Justin Cryer, and you can see a group that will be deeper than last year’s group and more attack-oriented.
Bend-don’t-break gets a bad rap but works long term; it’s why Kwiatkowski is so well respected and seen so much success. But ditching that for a hair-on-fire attack mentality that Muschamp brings add’s a little zest to a talented roster while also opening up opportunities for big play connections. We’ve seen Muschamp’s philosophy fail at Florida and South Carolina, but we’ve also seen a similar style succeed at Georgia; what we get out of Texas will go a long way in determining the Longhorns’ 2026 successes.
So what does it all mean?
Many outside The 40 Acres viewed Texas as getting a sweetheart deal from the SEC in terms of schedule difficulty. With the understanding that no SEC schedule is easy, the Longhorns certainly managed to avoid the classic toughest teams while still drawing some tough assignments from surprise version of Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.
But that’s not the case this year. Texas was delivered a doozy.
First of all, Ohio State at home is what they chose for themselves and is a great early year game. Kudos to them on that, they want that matchup and could win it.
But then, after their lone Bye Week, they get Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss and then close with LSU and Texas A&M in the last three weeks, both of those on the road. Again, Texas should be great and has the resources to always be great so I’m not shedding any tears for them, but that’s a tough schedule for anyone.
Missouri will be getting them at home sandwiched between their hosting of Mississippi State but right before they continue their road trip south to LSU. Texas is one of the few teams that Eli Drinkwitz has not coached against but getting a Manning-led offense with impact transfers littered on both sides of the ball late in the season when Playoff hopes are paramount is a tough first assignment.
Texas has a history of missing preseason hype badly. But when they put it together they really go far and, based on my view, they have all the pieces to win the SEC and make it far in the Playoff. But, hey, let’s hope this isn’t one of those rare “got it all together” seasons.
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