2026 Rose Bowl Prediction: Alabama vs Indiana CFP Quarterfinal
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The Rose Bowl narrative is already tired, so let’s put it to sleep already.
Yes, Indiana is Indiana. This is the program’s 15th bowl game ever, counting the CFP last season.
And yes, Alabama is Alabama.
This will be Alabama’s 15th College Football Playoff appearance.
Counting all of the CFP games, this will be Alabama’s 80th bowl/post-season game. The program has 45 double-digit win seasons in its rich history. Indiana has two, both under head coach Curt Cignetti.
Yes, it’s the powerhouse of powerhouses against the stunning upstart playing in its first Rose Bowl since 1967.
Alabama, obviously not a Big Ten, or former Pac-12, team, is about to play in its tenth.
How Alabama and Indiana Match Up in the Rose Bowl CFP Quarterfinal
And with that, let’s get past the idea that Indiana isn’t your normal, traditional superpower.
It handed Oregon it’s only loss, and it was by ten in Eugene. It got through the regular season unscathed, and it knocked off the unbeaten No. 1 defending national champion Ohio State by getting tough in a 13-10 war.
And let’s get past the idea that Alabama is its normal, traditional superpower we’re all used to.
Yeah, it was brilliant over the last 40 minutes of the 34-24 CFP First Round win over Oklahoma, but even with the 11 wins and a trip to the SEC Championship, this is a badly flawed team with a whole bunch of holes.
But it’s in Pasadena, and 128 other teams wish they were.
How To Watch Alabama vs Indiana
Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
Game Time: 4:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
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Why Alabama Will Win
Alabama, if you can do that for a full 60 minutes against Indiana – or, just do that for 40 minutes like you did against Oklahoma – you might be in the College Football Playoff Semifinals.
Let’s be real here, it took two to create this CFP First Round collapse in Norman.
Alabama took over the game, but if John Mateer hits that one big downfield pass, takes off running for the first down, or if Xavier Robinson catches it …
But that didn’t happen, the OU punter dropped the ball, Mateeer threw a pick-six, and that was it.
The right word here is flummoxed.
Alabama’s adjustments and schemes had plenty to do with that, but the collar got really, really tight after stuff got real for the Sooners. That allowed the Crimson Tide to take over.
This is one of those teams that needs to be disrespected. Did it belong in the CFP? Eh, sort of, but it wasn’t a slam dunk. Should it have lost to Oklahoma? Yeah, probably. Was it any good over the last two months of the season? Not really.
And with the way this team plays and acts, it LOVES being disrespected.
The talent is all there. Talk all you want about the Indiana stars, but Alabama has way more NFL parts, depth, size, and skill.
It took being down 17 against Oklahoma to bring that out, but to finally take this into the more technical, if the pass rush can produce like it did against Oklahoma – five sacks and seven tackles for loss – and if the run defense can hold up after allowing fewer than two yards per carry, look out. However …
Why Indiana Will Win
At any point in this season, has Indiana blinked?
Oh sure, the heart rate got going late against Penn State, and the team came through. Oh sure, it was pressed against Ohio State, and 15 came up with the throw that sealed the Heisman.
Fernando Mendoza has gone from perfect conductor for the attack to Heisman-winning legend, and it’s not because of his stats. Nothing fazes this guy.
And nothing gets past Curt Cignetti.
Now the Indiana coaching staff has 11 days to prepare for what it just saw in Norman.
It saw the adjustments that Tide defensive coordinator Kane Wommack made. The Bama pass rush – that’s been hiding for most of the season – isn’t going to throw any sort of curveball into the Indiana mix.
And no, this won’t be the game when the Alabama rushing attack finds its breakout moment.
The Crimson Tide ran 25 times for 28 yards. Yeah, quarterback Ty Simpson and back Daniel Hill each came up with big runs at key times, but that was it. No one runs consistently on the Hoosiers.
You have to at least be able to try a bit with the ground attack. Penn State’s backfield was loaded, and even though it didn’t rip it up in the instant classic loss to IU, it ran 33 times for 117 yards. That was effective enough to keep some semblance of control, and Bama can’t do that.
You also need to be deadly accurate. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin connected on 73% of his throws. Penn State’s Ethan Grunkenmeyer hit 71%. Iowa stayed alive partly because Mark Gronowski hit 76% of his throws. That means …
Alabama vs Indiana Prediction, Betting Lines
Ty Simpson has to out-Mendoza, Mendoza.
Simpson can get hot, but he can’t afford to spray the ball the few times a game that he does. He’s got to connect on 75% of his throws, because the running game won’t be there.
How did Alabama beat Georgia the first time around? It totally dominated the clock, connecting on seemingly every third down play – the Bulldog offense was never on the field.
Indiana is second in the nation in third down stops and seventh in the time of possession battle. Alabama was 2-of-12 on third downs against Oklahoma.
The Hoosiers have to collapse. Give Bama credit, it won the game when Oklahoma flung the door wide open to plow through.
Indiana won’t be great – the other side will have something to do with that – but it also won’t screw up enough for Bama to pull this off.
Indiana 26, Alabama 20
Line: Indiana -6.5, o/u: 48.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 5
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Alabama Rallies Past Oklahoma: 5 First Round CFP Takeaways
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 20, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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