2026 SEC Preview: Georgia Remains Top Dog in Deepest Conference

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For the next few weeks, I will preview every college football conference, providing my current power ratings and projected win totals for each school, while also offering my favorite bets in each.

Today’s conference is the SEC, which has seen Georgia win the conference in back-to-back seasons. Highlighted by the return of quarterback Gunner Stockton, this is Kirby Smart’s most experienced team in his 11-year tenure in Athens. It's a big reason why I’m picking the Georgia Bulldogs to three-peat in the SEC.

Read on for the rest of my 2026 SEC preview and best bets.

2026 SEC best bets

Pick	Odds
Georgia to win the SEC	+290
Oklahoma Over 7.5 wins	-120
Florida Under 7.5 wins	-125

Georgia to win the SEC

+290 at FanDuel

I gave out Georgia Bulldogs Over 9.5 wins as one of my win total best bets way back in the spring. Their win total is now up to 10.5 at FanDuel. Right now, I think more value lies in betting Georgia to win the SEC.

Georgia ranks No. 8 in Bill Connelly's returning production, which is the best mark in the Smart era. The Bulldogs return starting QB Gunner Stockton and 16 of their 21 defenders who logged at least 150 snaps last year.

Even in back-to-back “down seasons” compared to recent Georgia teams, the Bulldogs have managed to win the SEC Championship each year. I think this year’s team is better personnel-wise and has an easier slate.

My ratings project Georgia to be favored in every game, including 10 games by more than a touchdown. They’ll easily make their ninth SEC championship game in 10 years and will likely be favored in the game.

Bet to +250.

Oklahoma Over 7.5 wins

-148 at DraftKings

I think this year’s Oklahoma Sooners team is better than last year’s team that won 10 games and made the playoffs.

Oklahoma returns an SEC-best 14 starters from last year, including John Mateer at quarterback. Remember, Mateer was the Heisman odds favorite prior to breaking his hand in the fourth game of the season.

The Sooners also return their leading rusher and leading receiver, and have 97 combined starts on the offensive line. 

On the other side of the ball, the Sooners’ defensive line is one of the best in the country, and the linebackers were boosted by Owen Heinicke getting another year of eligibility.

I project Oklahoma to be favored in nine games, and all of those are by more than 3.5 points. Their three underdog roles are at Michigan, at Georgia, and vs. Texas. I think Oklahoma is live in the Michigan game, as the Sooners easily beat the Wolverines last year.

Bet to -170.

Florida Under 7.5 wins

-156 at DraftKings

I love the Jon Sumrall hire, and I really like the coaching staff he assembled, especially new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner.

I’ve upgraded the Florida Gators five points in my power ratings. So why are we betting the Under here? Similar to the past couple of seasons, Florida plays one of the toughest schedules in the country.

My ratings have the Gators listed as an underdog in six games. Four of their favorite roles are by six points or less.

The Gators will have to pull off multiple upsets and take care of business in every close favorite role to go Over 7.5 wins. With a questionable quarterback situation and not a very deep depth chart, I have serious doubts about Florida doubling their four-win total from last year.

Bet to -175.

Other 2026 SEC team previews

Cited college football win totals and odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 8-6.

Alabama

Win total projection: 8.5

Win total: 8.5 (Over -128)

I like the upside of new quarterback Keelon Russell so much that I gave him out as my favorite Heisman long-shot.

I think the schedule is favorable. The Crimson Tide do not play Texas, Oklahoma, or Mississippi. They also host both Georgia and Texas A&M, and my ratings project them to be favored in 10 games. I like Over 8.5 wins.

Arkansas

Win total projection: 4.4

Win total: 3.5 (Over -160)

Despite a 2-10 record last year, Arkansas had positive yards per play and yards per game margins. That usually bodes well for the following year.

However, this is a brand new staff and roster. My power ratings project the Razorbacks to be underdogs in 10 games. However, this win total has been bet down from 4.5 to 3.5. At the current line, I would lean Over.

Auburn

Win total projection: 6.7

Win total: 6.5 (Over -118)

I’m neutral on the Alex Golesh hire. It will be interesting to see how all his South Florida transfers do against tougher competition. Auburn has had five straight seven-loss seasons. Lean Under 6.5 wins.

Kentucky

Win total projection: 4.7

Win total: 4.5 (Over -130)

I like the energy of new head coach Will Stein, but I wasn’t thrilled with his coordinator hires.

The Wildcats only return six starters and play one of the toughest schedules in the country. My ratings project them to be underdogs in 10 games. I like Under 4.5 wins.

LSU

Win total projection: 7.8

Win total: 8.5 (Under -114)

I've upgraded the Tigers’ power rating a touchdown from last year. However, I think the expectations for new head coach Lane Kiffin and his No. 1-rated transfer portal class are unrealistic.

I have bet Under 9.5 wins, and my ratings still like Under 8.5 wins.

Mississippi State

Win total projection: 4.7

Win total: 4.5 (Over -128)

My ratings only project the Bulldogs to be favored in two games (vs. UL-Monroe and Tennessee Tech). However, quarterback Kamario Taylor makes them dangerous to pull an upset each week. Lean Under 4.5 wins.

Missouri 

Win total projection: 6.4

Win total: 6.5 (Over -115)

The Tigers lost a school-record six players to the NFL Draft. They still return the best running back duo in the country in Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts.

My ratings are near the posted win total. Lean Under 6.5 wins.

Mississippi

Win total projection: 8.2

Win total: 8.5 (Under -150)

The return of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy should ease the transition to new head coach Pete Golding.

My power ratings project Mississippi to be favored in nine games (exceptions at Texas, Georgia, at Oklahoma). However, this win total has been bet up from 7.5. I would lean Under 8.5 wins.

South Carolina

Win total projection: 7.1

Win total: 6.5 (Under -120)

I think the Gamecocks are flying under the radar this year after a 4-8 season.

They've upgraded at offensive coordinator with the hire of Kendall Briles. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers returns for another season. I lean Over 6.5 wins.

Tennessee

Win total projection: 7.6

Win total: 7.5 (Over -120)

It looks like Tennessee will be starting true freshman Faizon Brandon at quarterback. He has plenty of talent around him on offense. Can the defense learn new coordinator Jim Knowles’ complicated schemes quickly?

Tennessee has topped this win total in each of the last four years. Lean Over 7.5 wins.

Texas

Win total projection: 9.1

Win total: 9.5 (Under -142)

The Longhorns did not live up to preseason expectations last year (preseason No. 1). This year, I think the high expectations are more warranted with quarterback Arch Manning having more experience.

Texas does play my toughest schedule in the country. While my ratings project them to be favored in 11 games (vs. Ohio State being the exception), four of those favorite roles are by less than seven points. Lean Under 9.5 wins.

Texas A&M

Win total projection: 8.3

Win total: 8.5 (Under -138)

Texas A&M lost a school-record 10 players to the NFL Draft, including seven at the line of scrimmage.

I’m not a big believer of quarterback Marcel Reed, who threw four interceptions and zero touchdowns in the final two games last year. Lean Under 8.5 wins.

Vanderbilt

Win total projection: 6.3

Win total: 5.5 (Over -140)

The Commodores are coming off the best season in school history, but they lost arguably the top player in school history in quarterback Diego Pavia.

They are starting a true freshman at quarterback. I bet Under 6.5 wins early this offseason, but would lean Over 5.5 wins at current.

2026 power ratings for SEC teams

While the Big Ten may have won the last three National Championships, the SEC remains the deepest conference in college football. Eleven SEC teams are in my preseason Top 25, including seven in the Top 15.

Two-time defending SEC champion Georgia tops the list. Remember, this is the most experienced team Kirby Smart has had in his 11 years in Athens. 

Texas’ roster may have more upside than Georgia, but the Longhorns are relying on 12 transfers who were starters elsewhere last season. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has also come up short three straight times vs. Georgia.

Less than one point separates Oklahoma, Mississippi, Texas A&M, and Alabama in my power ratings. Even though Alabama is the lowest-rated of the group, the Crimson Tide have the easiest SEC schedule, and I think they are most likely to make the playoffs of that bunch.

Odds to win 2026 SEC Championship

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 8-6.

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