2026 Week 6 Preview: UCF Knights @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
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Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Boone Pickens Stadium — Stillwater, OK
- Spread: Oklahoma State (-10.5)
- Over/under: 53.5
- All-time series: UCF leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: UCF 17, Oklahoma State 14 — November 22, 2025
- Current streak: UCF, 2 (2023-25)
Setting the scene
There is just one Big 12 opponent Oklahoma State has never defeated before.
UCF is still searching for its first winning season as a Big 12 member, but the Knights have thrived against Oklahoma State since joining the league. In 2023, UCF decimated a Big 12 Championship-bound Cowboys team 42-3 in the rain. Then in 2025, the Knights rallied with 17 unanswered in the second half to win another in Orlando.
This is the first meeting between the programs in Stillwater, and doing past comparisons does no good for this Oklahoma State team. Because, this is the most overhauled team in college football history, featuring an FBS record 91 newcomers. So far, that overhauled roster has paid dividends, and Oklahoma State is ranked No. 18 in the AP Poll.
UCF’s last ranked win? Defeating No. 15 Oklahoma State in 2023.
UCF Knights outlook
UCF (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) will face its second consecutive ranked opponent on the road. The Knights had a golden opportunity at a statement win last week, holding a 17-0 lead over Houston as late as the 4:00 mark of the third quarter. However, the Cougars stormed back with 27 points in the final 19 minutes, handing UCF its first conference loss of the season.
It’s a feeling the program has become to accustomed to in this particular month. UCF is 1-10 in October since joining the Big 12, and the road doesn’t get any easier, especially with starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III out with a hamstring injury. Keyone Jenkins is slated to make his fourth consecutive start, coming off a season-high 253 passing yards against Houston — the most by any Knight quarterback since Nov. 22, 2025.
The Knights are averaging just 12 points per game away from home this year, and they’ll need more explosiveness in the passing game to secure their first road win. Josh Derry and Waden Charles have shouldered the majority of the load as receivers, combining for 31 receptions, 389 yards, and three touchdowns. Tight end usage has been a prominent feature in the offense as well.
But the unit’s calling card is its ability to run the football. Duke Watson is a master of broken tackles and breakaway runs. Among rushers with at least 40 attempts this year, the Louisville transfer ranks fourth nationally with 8.24 yards per carry. The sample size is small, but the Knights’ offense is quite dependent on his performance, averaging 58.5 points per game when Watson rushes for over 100 and 15.0 when he’s held under 60.
The defense stamped UCF’s first Big 12 win two weeks ago against TCU, and it will try to deliver another against an incredibly challenging offense. The Knights have been their best with their backs against the wall, allowing touchdowns on just 44 percent of opponent red zone trips. Like the offense, the unit is operating without its leader in outside linebacker Lewis Carter. Still, the unit has been sharp in his absence, denying TCU from the end zone for the final three quarters and shutting out Houston for over two-and-a-half frames.
Turnover production has been a defining feature of the defense. UCF has intercepted six passes this year, and strong safety Demari Henderson has been on the frontlines of all the disruption with two picks and four pass breakups. The Knights’ veteran secondary allows a commendable 59.1 completion rate, and the group has only surrendered three passing touchdowns all season.
The front has shown up too. Defensive end Isaiah Nixon leads the pass rush with 2.5 sacks, while inside linebacker Tackett Curtis serves as the primary run stopper with 33 tackles. Combining their efforts, the Knight defense gives up 3.17 yards per rushing attempt.
Oklahoma State Cowboys outlook
Oklahoma State (3-1, 1-0 Big 12) finally snapped its 18-game Big 12 losing streak two Saturdays ago in West Virginia, firing off 20 unanswered points in the final 18 minutes for a cathartic 41-24 road win. Now the Cowboys must deliver their first conference win in front of a home fanbase which hasn’t celebrated since Nov. 25, 2023.
Week 1 against Tulsa may have been an anomaly, but Oklahoma State’s offense has lived up to its expectations as an elite yet since. Head coach Eric Morris, who guided the country’s No. 1 offense last season at North Texas, is now on track to replicating that feat in Stillwater. His Cowboys rank second nationally with 548 yards per game, only trailing Miami (FL) by roughly seven yards.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has returned to his 2025 form, riding a streak of three-straight 300-yard games entering Week 6. Mestemaker isn’t tearing defenses up with dink-and-dunk, but rather, high-level vertical throws that can stress secondaries. He has thrown five interceptions this year — several of them off deflections — but accuracy remains a notable characteristic of his game, connecting on 67.4 attempts.
Oklahoma State produced many top-level wide receivers in the Mike Gundy era — Justin Blackmon, Tylan Wallace, James Washington, and Dez Bryant to name a few. But this particular group may be one of the deeper receiving corps Stillwater has offered in the 21st century. After finishing third nationally in receiving yards at North Texas last fall, Wyatt Young remains a star in his new home, ranking second in the Big 12 with 102.5 yards per game. Justin Bowick, Terrence Lewis, and Miles Coleman are all regular contributors as well, combining for 44 receptions and seven touchdowns through four games.
Ranking fifth on the team in receptions is versatile true sophomore running back Caleb Hawkins, who has taken charge of the run game with 441 rushing yards. Although Oklahoma State is more renowned for its abilities through the air, the ground attack has been quite dangerous, checking in at 24th in the FBS with 5.43 yards per attempt.
The path to becoming a Big 12 contender involves cleaning up the run defense. It was this element that allowed West Virginia to lead late in the third quarter of the Big 12 opener. But the Cowboys have been particularly elite in their passing defense, ranking 15th in the FBS in fewest yards allowed while boasting a 56.1 percent opponent completion rate. This facet was the unsung hero of the Oregon game, and Oklahoma State operates at its best in obvious passing downs. The Cowboys are top-15 nationally in both third down and fourth down stop rate, and cornerback LaDainian Fields has been the star of the secondary with an interception and three pass breakups.
Outside linebacker Ethan Wesloski is another name to watch on this defense, especially against a UCF squad that thrives best through the run game. Wesloski is the Big 12 leader with 23 solo tackles, and he’ll play a vital role in limiting the explosive runs the Knights need to thrive.
Prediction
UCF’s defense might be one of the better units in the Big 12, stonewalling TCU for four quarters and giving UCF fits for three, but this Oklahoma State offense will be a difficult unit to contain, especially on the road in Stillwater. The Cowboys can stretch defenses in a variety of ways, and they virtually haven’t shown any weaknesses since the Week 1 Tulsa game. Even the offensive line is coming together, as Oklahoma State is tied for ninth in the FBS in fewest sacks allowed.
The Knights’ best chance at the upset involves a lower-scoring, turnover laden game from the team in orange and black. Keeping pace with the Cowboys’ offense will be difficult — especially considering UCF’s shorthandedness on offense. Oklahoma State parties with its first Big 12 win in Stillwater since 2023, and the conference begins to recognize its status as contenders.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, UCF 14
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