3 Areas Where Wisconsin Football Must Improve to Upset No. 13 Penn State
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Wisconsin and Penn State are just about where each program was expected to be after out-of-conference play.
The Badgers suffered a disappointing yet entirely expected season-opening defeat at the hands of a Notre Dame team currently ranked No. 3 in the country before beating heavy underdogs Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan.
The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, largely cruised through their non-conference slate, facing three Group of Six teams and winning all three by a combined margin of 127-22.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Badgers are just 9.5-point underdogs (on FanDuel Sportsbook) on the road against the No. 13 team in the country. But if Wisconsin wants to pull off the upset, it must improve in three distinct categories Saturday night in Happy Valley:
Missed tackles
It didn't necessarily feel like it due to how dominant the Badgers' defense was after Eastern Michigan's first drive, but Wisconsin missed a whopping 15 tackles against the Eagles last week, per Pro Football Focus. The problem persisted across the entire defense; outside linebacker Sebastian Cheeks and inside backer Aaron Witt each missed two, but 11 additional defenders missed a single tackle.
No player on the Badgers' defense has more than three missed tackles all season, but five players have missed three tackles and another four have missed two. All told, the Badgers have 31 missed tackles through three games, or just about 10 per game. That needs to improve drastically ahead of Big Ten play.
Penn State's shiftiest receiver, Koby Howard, is a question mark to play Saturday night. But the Nittany Lions' top two tailbacks Carson Hansen and Quinton Martin are slippery too, with the latter in particular averaging a missed tackle forced on every 2.5 handoffs.
Turnover-worthy plays
As I wrote following Wisconsin's win over Eastern Michigan, you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to Badgers' quarterback Colton Joseph.
The good? He's a mobile, dynamic, fiery competitor whose arm and legs have already significantly upgraded both the floor and ceiling of this offense.
The bad? He's usually good for one or two horrible decisions each game.
Joseph currently has five "turnover-worthy plays," per PFF, which has him tied for fifth nationally in that category. There's still 28 quarterbacks who have as many or more than that, but still, Joseph needs to do a better job taking care of the ball.
Against Eastern Michigan, you can get away with throwing an ugly interception in the first quarter with your team losing – against Penn State, I doubt he gets that lucky. The Badgers need to possess the ball and steal a possession or two from the Nittany Lions; they can't afford giveaways. One turnover, they might be able to survive. Two could doom them.
Running game
Wisconsin only ran for 117 yards on 3.9 yards per carry last week against the Eagles. The offense still had its way, averaging 7.6 yards per play, but if the Badgers walk into Beaver Stadium and can't run the football, it's going to be a long night.
Penn State's opponents haven't been anywhere close to Big Ten caliber, but the Nittany Lions currently boast the No. 2 pass defense in the nation, allowing just 90.0 yards per game. They didn't allow either Temple or Buffalo to surpass 60 yards through the air.
Wisconsin is going to need to be able to run the ball to take some of the pressure off Joseph in a hostile environment against an elite pass defense. Penn State is allowing 111.1 yards per game on the ground, 52nd nationally. The Badgers' offensive line must be able to create rushing lanes come Saturday night.
The good news? Tailback Abu Sama told reporters he's playing Saturday night.
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Today's best reads
- 5 Penn State Players Who Will Shape Wisconsin's Week 4 Road Clash
- What We Need to See From Wisconsin Football vs. Eastern Michigan in Week 3
- 3 Burning Questions as Wisconsin Looks to Knock Off No. 13 Penn State in Happy Valley
- 3 Burning Questions Ahead of Wisconsin's Final Tune-Up Game vs. Eastern Michigan
- PFF Grades and Notes From Wisconsin Football's Week 3 Win Over Eastern Michigan
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/wisconsin as 3 Areas Where Wisconsin Football Must Improve to Upset No. 13 Penn State .
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