3 Keys To Victory for Indiana and Miami in the CFP National Championship
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On January 19, the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers will take on the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL, for the College Football Playoff National Championship. While the Hoosiers have steamrolled their way through the playoffs, the Hurricanes have won three hard-fought victories to get here. What will it take for each team to walk out as the last team standing?
Miami Key #1: Limit Mistakes
Miami has committed self-inflicted wounds throughout the season. They’ve committed at least 10 penalties in three games, the most recent of which came in the semifinals against Ole Miss. Indiana (55), on the other hand, has committed just over half the total amount of penalties that Miami (105) has this season.
Against Ole Miss, Miami suffered from numerous false starts and an intentional grounding call that stunted their drives. Against Indiana, they cannot afford to make the same mistakes. Indiana has no weaknesses and hasn’t made any big mistakes recently. Miami must play a perfect game on all fronts, including this one.
Indiana Key #1: Get Off to Hot Start to Quiet Hostile Crowd
The National Championship game will be virtually a home game for Miami. The crowd will be loud when Indiana has the ball, making it difficult for them to call plays effectively. At Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, earlier this season, the Ducks fans got to the Hoosiers. The notoriously loud stadium played a factor in Indiana’s eight pre-snap penalties, seven coming on offense.
Indiana arguably hasn’t faced that tough of a crowd since, but in a city like Miami, for the National Championship, Hard Rock Stadium will be going crazy. Normally, college football crowds are the loudest at the start of the game. That is, unless the game goes down to the wire. Getting off to a hot start should minimize the crowd factor for the rest of the night.
Miami Key #2: Own the Line of Scrimmage
Miami’s run game was unstoppable against Ole Miss. It seemed Mark Fletcher Jr. turned into the next Derrick Henry as he ran for 133 yards, averaging six yards per carry. The offensive line was a big reason for this, creating gaps in the Ole Miss defense and pushing Fletcher Jr. from behind when it seemed the Rebels would stop him.
Defensively, the Hurricanes’ defensive line generated six quarterback hurries throughout the game. They put heavy pressure Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, ending Ole Miss’ first two drives early. Against Ohio State, Miami’s defensive line totaled five sacks, contributing significantly to their 10-point victory. On both sides of the ball, Miami’s linemen are their strength.
Indiana runs the ball on over 60% of their offensive plays. This season, they averaged the 12th-most rushing yards per game. Miami has allowed the sixth-least rushing yards per game, and key to that is defensive linemen Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. In order to beat Miami, the defensive line has to stop the run and generate pressure. Fernando Mendoza doesn’t make many mistakes, and that’s one way to force him into some.
Offensively, the O-Line must make Mark Fletcher Jr. look unstoppable again. Indiana’s fantastic secondary will feast on Miami if they don’t have to respect the run.
Indiana Key #2: Stop the Run
The Miami Hurricanes are coming off a game where they went 11-for-19 on 3rd down and 2-for-2 on fourth down. If it was a reasonable distance, Mark Fletcher Jr. was going to get the first down. Even when Ole Miss poured its resources into stopping the run, many times it didn’t matter. This made Carson Beck’s job much easier, as simple screen plays became lethal against a run-committed defense.
If Indiana can stop the run without overcommitting, top Miami receiver Malachi Toney will have a tough time getting going. If Toney and Fletcher Jr. can’t gain momentum, Indiana will cruise to victory by neutralizing their opponent’s two top offensive weapons.
Miami Key #3: Sink Field Goals
Miami kicker Carter Davis has struggled lately. Now that the National Championship game is approaching, his struggles have been magnified. So far, in this year’s playoffs, he is 3-for-7. While the first-round game at Kyle Field was an extremely windy one, that’s no excuse for going 1-for-4 that game. Davis also missed a field goal against Ole Miss, and has missed six this season in total.
Indiana once was David, but they’ve lived long enough to become Goliath. The Hurricanes need every point they can get against Goliath. Indiana’s kicker Nico Radicic has only missed one field goal this whole season. Miami is already objectively outmatched on both sides of the ball. If Carter Davis can’t make his chances count on special teams, this game is over before it ever starts.
Indiana Key #3: Force Mistakes
Indiana’s defense has been a turnover-creating machine in the playoffs and this season as a whole. Their fumble recovery against Alabama led to a touchdown that killed any chance the Tide had. Two fumble recoveries and a pick-six nailed the coffin shut on the Oregon Ducks last round, not to mention the 10 tackles for loss that game.
The Hoosiers are tied for sixth in the FBS for fumble recoveries this season. They rank seventh in passes intercepted. Turnovers serve three functions. They kill the opponent’s offensive drive, give the offense better field position most times, and spike momentum. Especially if Miami continues to commit false starts and self-inflicted wounds, one or two Miami turnovers may seal the deal.
The Big Picture
Ultimately, Indiana is a massive favorite going into the title game. All they have to do is continue what they’ve done all season long. Miami, on the other hand, must play a perfect game. Given the supportive crowd, victory is possible. However, they must maximize their strengths and eliminate the mistakes that have almost eliminated them in prior games.
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