3 reasons why Alabama will defeat Georgia in Top 10 clash, 3 why not

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One of the most highly anticipated matchups of the entire season is this Saturday night as Alabama and Georgia meet in an undefeated top 10 clash.

After barely playing in the regular season for decades due to being in opposite divisions, a division-less SEC is now giving us this matchup for a third-straight regular season. Whenever two teams of this caliber meet up, it is easy to scour the matchups looking for what can turn the matchup one way or the other, which often come in the slimmest of margins.

Here are three reasons why Alabama will win on Saturday night against Georgia, as well as three reasons why they might not.

Why: Alabama has Georgia's number

While Georgia seemingly exercised some demons against Alabama in last year's SEC Championship Game, overall Alabama has had Georgia and Kirby Smart's number, especially in the regular season. For as good as Kirby Smart is against everyone else (120-14), he is just 2-7 against Alabama with both wins coming in the postseason, making him 0-3 against the Tide in the regular season. Most people assumed it was the "Nick Saban against his former assistants factor", but even under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama is 2-1 against Smart and Georgia.

Quick starts from Alabama have been the story the previous two Tide regular season wins over Georgia the last two years as well, as the Tide jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the 2024 matchup, and they led 14-0 early last season in Athens.

Why not: Gunner Stockton's veteran presence

While Gunner Stockton might not have the physical tools of other quarterbacks, he is an experienced veteran who does exactly what Georgia asks him to do in their system. In his career as a starter, Stockton has started against a ranked team eight previous times with a record of 5-3 with two of those losses coming in the College Football Playoff and the other being to Alabama last regular season. In those eight games, Stockton is completing 70.1% of his passes with 1,615 passing yards, 226 rushing yards, and 22 total touchdowns to two interceptions.

We have seen Stockton rise to the level needed in a shootout like he did last season against Tennessee when he threw for 304 yards and Ole Miss in the regular season (26-of-31, 289 pass yards, 59 rush yards, five total touchdowns). We have also seen him play game-control like the SEC Championship Game last year when he was an efficient 20-of-26 for 156 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. If Georgia is going to win this game, they are likely going to need him to play well, stay composed, and play within their system.

Why: Alabama's explosive passing game

With a Heisman candidate and superstar quarterback in Keelon Russell and a talented group of receivers, Alabama has a very explosive passing game that is one of the best in the country, if not the best. Russell is second in the SEC in passing yards, and leads the conference in yards per attempt at 10.7. That number ranks fifth nationally. Alabama has loads of explosive talent at the receiver position led by Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks, both of whom rank top 10 in the SEC in receiving yards. Joining those two are the likes of Rico Scott, Noah Rogers, Cederian Morgan, and tight ends Marshall Pritchett and Kaleb Edwards who can all make plays.

Add to that, truthfully, pass defense has been the Georgia defense's biggest weakness so far this season. Georgia has allowed some explosive passing plays. Just last week against Vanderbilt, Georgia allowed a 60-yard touchdown pass on a busted coverage off a corner blitz. They have allowed open receivers throughout the game in all three of their SEC games so far this season. Alabama producing big plays in the passing game could be a reason they win, as it has been when these two squads have met before.

Why not: Georgia's run game

While Georgia's run game in this matchup took a big hit Wednesday night when it came out that Chauncey Bowens was listed as out and will miss this matchup, Georgia did get good news as Nate Frazier was not listed on the injury report and appears to be as healthy as he has been in a while. Frazier missed Georgia's Week 4 game against Oklahoma and was limited to just two carries last week against Vanderbilt, but he appears to be back as Georgia's most talented back.

Even without Bowens, Georgia still has a talented group of backs. Georgia running back Dwight "Peanut" Phillips has also started to emerge this season as he currently has 160 yards while averaging eight yards per carry with a couple of long runs to his name. You also cannot mention Georgia's run game without mentioning Gunner Stockton's impact with his legs. While Georgia's offensive line has struggled in pass-pro this season, they have been good in run-blocking. If Georgia wins this game, it might be because they are able to replicate what they did in the SEC Championship Game last year when Georgia out-rushed Alabama 141 to -3.

Why: Alabama's pass rush

Alabama's defense currently sits third in the conference in sacks this season with 16. Last week, they sacked Mississippi State's quarterbacks five teams in a dominant performance from the defensive line. Devan Thompkins (4.5 sacks), Terrance Green (four sacks), and Yhonzae Pierre (2.5 sacks) lead the way, but this is also a deep pass rush group for the Tide that can heavily impact a game and shut opposing offenses down.

Georgia's offensive line was viewed as one of the best in the nation coming into the season, although it has not always lived up to expectations so far this season, especially in pass protection. There have been moments where they have struggled, like against Arkansas when the Razorbacks got home for three sacks. Georgia's offensive line is still good and could reach their expectations at any point, but Alabama's pass rush is good enough to win this game for Alabama.

Why not: Georgia's defensive stars make plays

When facing an offense as good as Alabama's, Georgia's defense is going to have to make some big plays at some point if they want to win the game. Georgia's defense has plenty of talent, and they will need some of that talent to make big plays Saturday. Whether it's forcing a turnover or coming up with a big sack.

Chris Cole has been one of the best linebackers in the nation this season and is a rare mix of speed, length, and versatility. He will lineup at linebacker and edge rusher, and is a key to Georgia's defense. Ellis Robinson IV and KJ Bolden are both third-year former five-star defensive backs who will be keys in this matchup. On the defensive line, Georgia is led by Elijah Griffin who is one of the most talented defensive lineman Kirby Smart has had at Georgia. If Georgia wins this game, one of those players will likely have to make a big play or two to help swing the game.

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: 3 reasons why Alabama will defeat Georgia in Top 10 clash, 3 why not

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