5 Best Bowl Picks Against the Spread: December 30–31 Games

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They’re the last regular bowl games before Miami and Ohio State play on New Year’s Eve for a spot in the College Football Playoff Semifinals.

Enjoy them all, because you’ll miss them when they’re gone. As we wind down 2025, here are the five best picks against the spread for the games on December 30th and 31st.

Top ATS Bowl Picks for December 30–31

First of all, no way, no how, no chance am I going 5-0 again like I did for the last batch.

Army over UConn in the Fenway was my call of the bowl season, Minnesota over New Mexico in the Rate wasn’t far behind, and Northwestern over Central Michigan was easy.

Houston over LSU? Yeah, that worked with the Tigers missing too many parts, and … I stuck with my San Diego State pick to at least cover against North Texas. That was an easy, no-sweat, no problem clean ATS win … (Yeeeeeeeeeeesh)

I don’t dig any of these five picks as much as I liked last week’s picks, and I can’t find any groove to the point totals, but let’s keep the train rolling, starting with …

Bowl Record So Far: 9-2
@PeteFiutak
– Bowl Schedule, Predictions, Game Previews 

5. Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Arizona State vs Duke

Line: Duke -3
ATS Pick: Arizona State
Sun Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

We’re past worrying about whether or not the teams care in these games.

At this point, if you’re on the field, you’re either sticking around, playing your last game, or auditioning for others. No matter what, the players who run out of that tunnel are trying. With that said …

No Kenny Dillingham-coached team will ever hit the field playing anything less than full-throttle.

That’s nothing against Duke, and I am worried about Darian Mensah staying around, but Arizona State is going to run and run and run some more. 

As long as quarterback Jeff Sims doesn’t start turning the ball over, he’ll go off with at least 20 carries.

4. ReliaQuest Bowl

Iowa vs Vanderbilt

Line: Vanderbilt -5.5
ATS Pick: Iowa
ReliaQuest Bowl Game Preview, Prediction, Final Score

Avert your eyes if you sort of like the other way here, because …

1) I don’t think the SEC is very good. I didn’t think it was nearly as special as everyone thought this season, and nothing so far in the bowls has changed that – including the meltdown by Oklahoma again Bama, and yeah, if some of your main guys aren’t going, that is still your team, Missouri and LSU.

2) I don’t quite buy into the Vanderbilt love like everyone else does, however …

3) This is about the spread. Iowa is Iowa, so it’ll do everything humanly possible to ensure the Commodores stay in the game, and I wouldn’t be stunned at all if the SEC gets this one. However, the 5.5 is a bit too rich.

3. Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

Illinois vs Tennessee

Point Total: 62.5
ATS Pick: Over
Music City Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

Again, I have been awful on point totals this bowl season, and the 62.5 is high, but we’re overdue for a high-powered Power Four shootout

I’m totally stumped when it comes to Tennessee -3.5. I can see just about any scenario playing out when it comes to who wins this and why.

The one thing I do like, though, is that a whole lot of points will be scored.

Tennessee allows close to 250 passing yards per game, and Illinois should be able to fire away as long as starting quarterback Luke Altmyer doesn’t get swallowed up by the Vol pass rush.

Speaking of not reading the point totals right this bowl season …

2. Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech

Point Total: 49.5
ATS Pick: Over
Independence Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

If I’m the sucker who falls into the trap, so be it.

Coastal Carolina is missing a slew of parts, and the defense allowed an average of 51.7 points per game over the last three. Here’s the rub – the Chanticleers gave up a gajillion points to the good teams on the slate, and held down the blah. 

Louisiana Tech leans far closer to the blah side, but it’ll run for about 4,000 yards on the Coastal Carolina defensive front

In a home game, it should have no problem taking care of at least 30 points on its own, and even with the early start, the offenses should get going right away.

1. SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Nebraska vs Utah

Line: Utah -14
ATS Pick: Utah
Las Vegas Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

There are a few things I can’t unsee.

I know you’re not supposed to do this, but watching these two teams all year, I can’t get Nebraska’s last two games against Penn State and Iowa out of my head.

The Huskers really, really try, but they just don’t have the Jimmys and Joes.

(I don’t do in-game stuff, but watch for Nebraska to be good early, and then the Utah avalanche to start with around five minutes to play in the first half.)

I also have it stuck in my head that Utah will be just a little extra motivated with all the attention on Kyle Whittingham and the Michigan job.

There’s no ill will here like there was in Ole Miss beating Lane Kiffin as much as it did Tulane, but this is when the start of the Morgan Scalley head coaching era is really on.

It might take a whole lot of sweating to get there, but Nebraska’s offensive backfield won’t be able to make a late push. 

Related: College Football Bowl Expert Picks: December 30–January 2

This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 30, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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