5 Best Bowl Picks Against the Spread for December 26–27

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The bowl season hasn’t been anything great, but things might have turned with a great Hawaii Bowl – Hawaii pulled off the thriller in the final moments over Cal.

But that’s all in the past. This is when bowl season really gets rolling, with 11 games crammed into two days. Here are the five best picks against the spread.

Top ATS Bowl Picks for December 26–27

Dec 13, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Army Black Knights running back Noah Short (15) runs with the ball against the Navy Midshipmen during the first half of the 126th Army-Navy game at M&T Bank Stadium.© Danny Wild-Imagn Images

I’m not going to lie. This has been a rough bowl season to figure out. The opt-outs are coming at the last possible moment, and almost nothing makes sense.

Washington State and Ohio each won their respective bowl games, even with the loss of their head coaches – and a whole slew of players – when they should’ve both lost.

Hawaii won by one, and Cal covered. USF’s O didn’t show against Ole Dominion, and don’t get me started on the ridiculousness of Oregon not covering against James Madison and an all-time bad beat point total in Western Michigan’s destruction of Kennesaw State.

Waaaah, waaaah, waaaah. Let’s do this.

There are 11 bowl games over the next two days, and almost all of them are like trying to predict an NFL preseason game. Even so, these five should be the best picks of the bunch (fingers and toes crossed).

Bowl Record So Far: 4-2
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– Bowl Schedule, Predictions, Game Previews

5. Isleta New Mexico Bowl

North Texas vs San Diego State

Line: North Texas -5.5
ATS Pick: San Diego State
– New Mexico Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

If you go with this, be prepared to jump ship fast.

Both teams are missing mega-players, including both starting quarterbacks, but North Texas being without Drew Mestemaker should mean more than San Diego State losing Jayden Denegal.

Aztec backup Bert Emanuel Jr. knows how to run, and that’s exactly what the Aztecs will do over and over and over again. They’ll grind the clock away against a Mean Green D that’s miserable against the run. The Mean Green defense has feasted all year against backup quarterbacks, and …

Again, if North Texas goes off early and it doesn’t look like SDSU has it, be ready to move.

4. GameAbove Sports Bowl

Nov 22, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Preston Stone (8) scans the field against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first half at Wrigley Field.© Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Northwestern vs Central Michigan

Line: Northwestern -10.5
ATS Pick: Northwestern
– GameAbove Sports Game Preview, Prediction

Here’s why you go the other way. The MAC team usually shows up super-large in this.

Over the last five games in this Detroit-based bowl, the MAC team has won twice and lost by six points or fewer in the other three.

So why go with Northwestern here? Something has to go according to regular season form in some way.

For the most part, Northwestern is about as close as it would’ve been if this were in October, and there’s zero concern when it comes to effort. David Braun’s bunch will bring it.

Central Michigan lost its two games against Power Four programs – Michigan and Pitt – by a combined score of 108 to 20.

The Chippewa offense should struggle throughout, and even though you might have to sweat it out late … again, something in this bowl season has to go to form.

3. Kinder’s Texas Bowl

LSU vs Houston

Line: Houston -2.5
ATS Pick: Houston
– Texas Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

Houston has its quarterback, and LSU doesn’t.

Okay, so Michael Van Buren started at the end of the year, but it’s not like the Tiger offense went anywhere.

He’s playing, but LSU is missing several players, and this should be one of those bowl games that sees a gajillion starters not dressing late in the game.

LSU is normally fantastic in bowls, but it got rolled in 2022 by Kansas State 42-20 when a slew of key players were missing … in the Texas Bowl.

Houston might not be amazing, but quarterback Conner Weigman should be decent against the (mostly) LSU backups.

Okay, these first three are educated guesses, but I’m not deeply in love with any of them. These next two, though …

2. Rate Bowl

Nov 22, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers wide receiver Javon Tracy (11) celebrates his touchdown with teammates against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Wrigley Field. © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Minnesota vs New Mexico

Line: Minnesota -1.5
ATS Pick: Minnesota
– Rate Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

New Mexico is dangerous. It plays the exact style that should keep the score low, and the game close – and Minnesota should play along.

The Golden Gophers have been horrible away from home this season, the offense isn’t anything great, and it’s missing far more pieces than the Lobos are. However …

Minnesota has won its last eight bowl games. Head coach PJ Fleck gets his teams up for these things, going 6-0 since taking over in 2017.

It might not be with ease, but the Golden Gopher run defense should hold up late.

1. Wasabi Fenway Bowl

Army vs UConn

Line: Army -9.5
ATS Pick: Army
– Fenway Bowl Game Preview, Prediction

As we’ve learned this bowl season, nothing is a given. As much as we all want to find something normal to cling to, alas, so far there isn’t much to rely on.

Again, check on this game at the last possible moment. This is all about UConn and who’s playing and who’s not.

UConn didn’t lose everyone, but there are a whole lot of starters in the transfer portal.

There is a shot that several of the many, many players leaving the program will play – star wide receiver Skyler Bell is suiting up – but head coach Jim Mora Jr. is off to Colorado State.

Even tougher is the quarterback situation, if it’s not Nick Evers in place of starter Joe Fagnano.

The running back depth chart is a guess, the lines are questionable, and even if all of the starters were back, the run defense was awful, the team didn’t control the clock at all, and Army should be able to run wild.

Army doesn’t do opt-outs. There aren’t transfers, and for the most part, the same team that lost a heartbreaker to Navy just two weeks ago is relatively intact.

Now, it doesn’t score a whole lot, and 9.5 is a lot of points to be giving up considering how tight so many of its games were this season. However, three of the first four Fenway Bowls were blowouts, and the fourth was a nine-point Boston College upset win over SMU in 2023.

This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 26, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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