5 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 0, 2026

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After a bizarre and – fine, I’ll just say it – triple-dumb offseason, we’re finally here. It’s Week 0 of the 2026 college football season, and all things considered, it’s not all that bad.

All eight games are intriguing. Can Bill Belichick get North Carolina going against TCU in Ireland? How will North Dakota State do now that it’s in the FBS? Can Hawaii pull off a second straight opening weekend win over Stanford, and can Florida State get off to a hot start?

They’re all part of the five best picks against the spread for Week 0.

Last Year’s Results: 90-76
– All the Week 0 Picks

5. Hawaii at Stanford

Line: Stanford -4
ATS Pick: Hawaii
– Hawaii vs Stanford Game Preview

Before we get going, keep in mind one very, very important thing as we head into Week 0, and this goes for when I do this for the Ten Best Picks thing for Week 1: We’re all flying blind going into the season.

Yeah, I can speak fluently about all 138 FBS teams, but do I know how well teams with almost entirely new rosters of transfers are going to mesh right away? I can hazard a guess, but early on, I’m going to be way biased against picking teams with a whole slew of big changes. And that’s why I like Hawaii.

The Rainbow Warriors have been my Group of Six “team to watch out for” throughout the offseason, and I can’t back off now. They’re loaded with veterans. I’m a true believer in quarterback Micah Alejado and the passing game, and with just eight games to choose from, I’ll be mad if my instincts are right and I don’t go with them.

4. North Carolina vs TCU

Line: TCU -8.5
ATS Pick: North Carolina
– North Carolina vs TCU Game Preview

If you’ve been with me at any point over the last 28 years, you know I don’t believe in automatically assuming history has anything to do with the next game – 18-to-23-year-old kids don’t care if their team won or lost ten straight to the opponent going back to 1954. But that goes head-first into another belief – never screw with a streak.

TCU is the better team and will win, but five of the last six of these Ireland games were decided by three points or fewer.

I do believe that Bill Belichick’s North Carolina team will bring something strong defensively, but as I mentioned earlier, I don’t like the teams with wholesale transfer changes, and the Tar Heels are all but brand new just about everywhere. Sorry for the “feel” pick here.

3. San Jose State at USC

Line: USC -38.5
ATS Pick: USC
– San Jose State vs USC Game Preview

Let’s not make this any harder than it has to be. Yes, last year’s San Jose State team only lost to Texas 38-7, and it came super-close to beating Stanford in a 30-29 loss, but USC under Lincoln Riley has absolutely doornailed Group of Five/Six teams.

Last year the Trojans beat a good Missouri State team by 60, and then took out Georgia Southern 59-20 – both opponents finished with winning seasons.

In 2024, USC 48, Utah State 0, and in 2023 it hung up 56 on San Jose State and 66 on Nevada. To keep data dumping, in Riley’s first season in 2022, USC started with a 66-14 win over Rice, and hit Fresno State 45-17.

USC’s defense helps early on, and then the offense finds its footing in the second half and pulls away.

2. Jacksonville State at North Dakota State

Line: North Dakota State -6.5
ATS Pick: North Dakota State
– Jacksonville State vs North Dakota State Game Preview

I’m well aware that Jacksonville State is good enough to win the Conference USA title, but the offense is replacing running back Cam Cook and several key parts, and …

Gut feeling: The world is sort of sleeping on just how good North Dakota State really is, and Jacksonville State is about to take the bus from the hotel into a buzzsaw.

North Dakota State was an FCS machine. Like Jacksonville State a few years ago, and James Madison, and Missouri State and Delaware last year, good programs make the transition right away.

The public hammered the Gamecocks – the line opened at NDSU -10 – but the Fargodome has been waiting for an FBS opener like this.

1. New Mexico State at Florida State

Line: Florida State -30.5
ATS Pick: Florida State
– New Mexico State vs Florida State Game Preview

(Oh that’s just GREAT. Last year I couldn’t buy a bucket with my No. 1 picks. It got so bad that I begged the world to fade me. Desperately wanting to get off to a hot start and needing all the vibes I can get … I accidentally typed in New Mexico State next to the pick and caught it at the last moment.)

Even though Florida State doesn’t seem to have the talent and star power it should, it’s still Florida State, and that’s still New Mexico State coming into town. The Nole defense should keep the new pass-happy Aggies from finding a groove, and on the other side, new quarterback Ashton Daniels and the attack will do whatever it wants.

How did Florida State start last year? It beat Alabama by two touchdowns and took down East Texas A&M and Kent State – who turned out to be okay – by a combined score of 143 to 13. It then went 1-7 the rest of the way. The Seminoles aren’t going to let up in this.

Yes, last year was last year, but New Mexico State lost to Tennessee 42-9. In 2024, it lost at Texas A&M by 35 in 2023, and this can go on and on with blowouts in paycheck games. Here comes another one.

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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