5 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 1 Friday:

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Yes, there is such a thing as a good 5-5 start – at least for now, considering how insane it is to try figuring out all these teams with mostly new players.

What’s so good about it? Going 3-2 yesterday was fine, and over the first two runs, one loss was that horrific Hawaii beat against Stanford, another came in the final seconds of Illinois-UAB, and then there’s the whopper – thinking Rutgers would destroy UMass. Historically shocking whiff, cap tipped, moving on.

There aren’t many options for the Friday games, but let’s force down an appetizer before the smorgasbord on Saturday.

Last Week’s Results: 5-5
– All the Week 1 Picks
– Week 1 Expert Picks

5. Toledo at Michigan State

Line: Point Total 46.5
ATS Pick: Under

This is one of those picks to see if we have our in-season game legs early on. Seriously, feel free to ignore this one, because it’s a little dangerous.

Both teams have new coaching staffs, new ideas, and wholesale personnel changes. That, and 46.5 isn’t all that hard to hit – the original call to make this one of the games was when the total was 49.5.

Again, I’m flying a bit blind here, but it’s Pat Fitzgerald with a pieced-together team. It’ll be about the defense and running game. Mike Jacobs’ Toledo side will keep the chains moving and the clock rolling. This should be a good, tough fight.
– Toledo vs Michigan State Game Preview

4. LIU at Kansas

Line: Kansas -41.5
ATS Pick: Kansas

It’s a small sample size, but one key mini-trend isn’t shocking – with the exception of Buffalo against Albany, FBS teams are annihilating the FCSers.

Utah 66, Idaho 14
UCF 73, Bethune-Cookman 6
Missouri 54, UAPB 14
Delaware 42, Merrimack 7
Kennesaw State 47, West Georgia 0 (I LOVED this and chickened out yesterday, not making this one of the five best picks)
Minnesota 59, Eastern Illinois 7

I never change our call on the predicted final score in our game previews unless something insane happens, but Kansas big at home against LIU – partly because it’ll likely go full throttle for a full 60 minutes – was the call from the start. If anything, we were probably too conservative on what the Jayhawks will do.
– LIU vs Kansas Game Preview

Sticking with that FBS blowout over FCS thing …

3. Indiana State at Purdue

Line: Purdue -35.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS Pick: Purdue

There’s no need to do a deep dive here. Purdue has a brutal schedule ahead, it’s been a rough run over the last few years, and the coaches will keep pushing because the program has to set a new tone. Purdue beat Indiana State 49-0 in 2024, and Indiana slipped past the Sycamores by 73 last year.
– Indiana State vs Purdue Game Preview

2. Miami at Stanford

Line: Point Total 47.5
ATS Pick: Over

Two things are in play here. First, the Stanford defense didn’t look like anything special once the Hawaii offense got rolling in the 37-27 Cardinal win. There’s a real chance Miami takes care of most of the total on its own.

Here’s the second part – the line is 24.5. In the six games last year when Miami won by more than that, all but the 38-7 win over Pitt got to 48 or more. That includes the 42-7 win over Stanford. The Cardinal should put up just enough points to help the cause.
– Miami at Stanford Game Preview

1. Fresno State at USC

Line: USC -21.5
ATS Pick: USC

Sorry if you’ve heard this a million times before, but I don’t have a good relationship with my No. 1 picks in these pieces.

I missed wildly, thinking Florida State was going to destroy New Mexico State in Week 0, and on Thursday, yeah, UMass happened. But that epic fail by Rutgers fits – I miss these picks, but I do so in spectacular fashion.

But I always play it straight. USC worked the kinks out against San Jose State, the backups got some work in the fourth quarter, and now it’s on. Fresno State is really good, but this should be when it’s all systems go.

Rip through this, take it easy against Louisiana, and then the Big Ten season starts (against Rutgers on the road, by the way).
– Fresno State vs USC Game Preview

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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