5 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 14 Friday

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

It’s Black Friday for most of the world, but it’s a massive college football Friday to you.

So while the people I care about most in this world go out and spend all the money I have on stuff no one in a functional society actually needs, I’m trying to pay for it.

To be totally honest, I’m not totally in love with these picks and this selection of games. However, I’m a believer in chalk on Rivalry Weekend, and triple that next weekend for Conference Championship Saturday.

If the lesser team comes up with something wacky, tip your hat and move on.

So after all that blather, 1) Happy Thanksgiving weekend. Seriously, force yourself to enjoy a moment or two, and 2) what do I do after all of that hoo-ha about going with the safe, favorite picks? 

Week 14 Friday Top Picks ATS: Indiana at Purdue, Texas A&M at Texas, San Diego State at New Mexico

Record So Far: 64-66
@PeteFiutak

5. Texas A&M at Texas

Line: Texas A&M -2.5
ATS Pick: Texas
– Texas A&M vs Texas Game Preview

This is a feel pick, so if you don’t agree, move along, because Texas A&M is the better team and should win if it plays up to its capabilities. 

Here’s my problem with the Aggies, and I know it’s a little weird, but hear me out. There’s a regression to the mean thing/market correction thing about to happen here, sort of like SMU being 11-1 last year, partly because it missed Miami, Clemson, and Notre Dame in the regular season.

Texas A&M is 11-0 with a win over Notre Dame. No matter what, you don’t get to 11-0 as an SEC team without being good. But it also missed Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma. Its second-best win is, what, Missouri?

Again with the feel – I might just be hungry, but my gut is yelling at me that we’re about to get the Oklahoma game version of Texas. 

Okay, fine, if that’s too flaky for you, try this …

4. Navy at Memphis

Line: Point Total 57.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Navy vs Memphis Game Preview

I know, this is a THURSDAY game, but I wanted to get it in here. 

It’s a primetime battle on ESPN on Thanksgiving night. There’s no way this will be any sort of defensive slugfest. Both teams will bring the offense out of the other side.

Memphis is good against the run, but the teams that can do it were able to rumble against the D. The Tiger O, at home, puts up numbers.

How many Memphis games have hit 58 points or more? Five of the last eight, and three of the last four at home.

Navy will play ball. It scored 32 points or more in four of its last six games, and one time it didn’t was against Notre Dame.

3. San Diego State at New Mexico

Line: San Diego State -1.5
ATS Pick: New Mexico

For what it’s worth, I sort of dig the under on the 41.5, too.

Yeah, it’s possible the Aztec defense puts on a clinic, but there’s a massive problem here. SDSU’s two top wide receivers are out for the year, and the O has to run well to win.

The offense has been able to get away with a lot of stuff because the defense keeps facing backup quarterbacks – Boise State, Fresno State, and San Jose State all went to their understudies.

New Mexico’s run defense has been a brick wall in Albuquerque, where the team is 5-0.

2. Indiana at Purdue

Line: Indiana -28.5
ATS Pick: Indiana
– Indiana vs Purdue Game Preview

You have food to eat, things to do, and crap to buy, so I’ll make this quick.

Indiana is No. 1 in the nation in third down conversions, connecting on 57% of its chances. No team has hit that mark or better for a season since the national champion 2020 Alabama team. 

Purdue is 108th in the nation in third down stops. Indiana is No. 2 in the nation in third down stops.

How rough has it been for the Boilermakers? Over the last two games, Ohio State converted 69% of its third down tries, and Washington 70%.

Fair warning, I’ve only hit both sides of my twozie picks once this year, so …

1. Indiana at Purdue

Line: Point Total 53.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Indiana vs Purdue Game Preview

No, Indiana isn’t winning this 66-0 like it did last year, but would it shock you if it did?

How many times this season have the Hoosiers scored 54 points or more on their own? Five in the last 11 games.

However, as a heads up, only four Purdue games have hit 54 or more, but the last two did, Notre Dame got there by itself, and the Illinois game was the other.

Taking the chance here that IU does most of the heavy lifting on its own.

Related: College Football Week 14 Schedule, Predictions & Scoreboard

This story was originally published by College Football News on Nov 27, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos