7 college football best bets for Week 1
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College football‘s Week 1 slate carries seven games with odds worthy of your best bets consideration.
From an SEC opener without its best offensive weapons to a Group of Six defense trying to slow down a Heisman contender. These are seven matchups to place your wagers on across this slate that stretches from Thursday to Sunday.
MORE: 6 prediction market picks for College Football’s Week 1
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Missouri
Game time: Thursday, 9/3 at 8 p.m. ET
Missouri opens the season at Memorial Stadium against an FCS opponent that lost most of its defensive front to the transfer portal. The Golden Lions won’t offer much resistance, and Eli Drinkwitz’s team should win comfortably behind quarterback Austin Simmons and running back Jamal Roberts.
The offense won’t operate at full strength. Star running back Ahmad Hardy remains out while recovering from a gunshot wound suffered in May, and left tackle Cayden Green is also unavailable. Roberts and Houston Christian transfer Xai’Shaun Edwards will carry the bulk of the workload.
Missouri’s defense returns plenty of talent and should keep the scoring one-sided, even with reserves rotating in during the second half.
Pick: 31-14, Missouri wins. APB +54.5, Under 61.5
Idaho vs. Utah
Game time: Thursday, 9/3 at 9 p.m. ET
Utah opens the Morgan Scalley era at Rice-Eccles Stadium against an FCS opponent. The Utes have every reason to make a statement. Quarterback Devon Dampier returns healthy after playing through a sports hernia and ankle injury for most of last season. RB Wayshawn Parker gives Utah a downhill threat behind a run game that averaged six yards per carry in 2025.
Idaho enters off a difficult Week 0 finish, a 38-34 loss to Cal Poly. The contest was decided on a touchdown pass with nine seconds left. Quarterback Joshua Wood threw for 363 yards in that game. The Vandals showed they can move the ball even against an FBS defense.
Utah should take control early and lean on its offensive line to grind out the clock. An established Big 12 program against a Big Sky team battling back from a heartbreaker should stay under the number.
Pick: 35-7, Utah. Idaho +35.5, Under 57.5
UTEP vs. Oklahoma
Game time: Friday, 9/4 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Oklahoma opens the season at home behind a healthy John Mateer. He will work with a fully rebuilt receiving room. That includes transfers Trell Harris and Parker Livingstone alongside returning leading receiver Isaiah Sategna. Coach Brent Venables brings back 14 starters and one of the more experienced defensive fronts in the SEC.
UTEP enters a new conference, the Mountain West. The Miners have a completely reshaped roster after losing their top two receivers, leading rusher and both quarterbacks from a 2-10 season. New quarterback EJ Colson transfers in from Incarnate Word and gives the Miners a more experienced option under center. Unfortunately, this defense will be facing one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
Oklahoma should control the game from the start and use its bench liberally by the second half, keeping the total in check even with backups on the field.
Pick: 41-10, Oklahoma. UTEP +40.5, Under 51.5
Fresno State vs. USC
Game time: Friday, 9/4 at 9 p.m. ET
USC returns to the Coliseum after a Week 0 win over SJSU that got overshadowed by an announced crowd of 51,144. That total looked exaggerated based on photos from the game. The crowd was the smallest of Lincoln Riley’s tenure. Coach Riley pushed back on the criticism this week, but a fuller stadium and a more decisive performance would go a long way toward changing the conversation.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava returns for his third season under Riley. He led the Big Ten in passing yards a year ago. The Trojans get a Fresno State team breaking in first-time starter Jayden Mandal.
USC’s defense, now under coordinator Gary Patterson, should create problems for a Bulldogs offense. Fresno State is still adjusting to a new quarterback and its first season in the rebuilt Pac-12.
Pick: 38-10, USC. USC -22.5, Under 51.5.
Miami vs. Stanford
Game time: Friday, 9/4 at 9 p.m. ET
Miami opens ACC play at Stanford Stadium behind new starting quarterback Darian Mensah, who led the conference in passing yards a season ago at Duke before transferring. Mensah joins a Miami offense that already has a 1,000-yard rusher in Mark Fletcher Jr. and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Malachi Toney and Cooper Barkate.
Stanford enters with some momentum after a 37-27 win over Hawaii in Tavita Pritchard’s debut as head coach, a game in which the Cardinal put up nearly 500 yards of total offense. Running back Micah Ford was the engine of that win, and Stanford’s defense will need to slow him down again against a Miami roster with far more talent at every skill position.
Both offenses have shown they can move the ball early in the season, and this one should have scoring on both sides.
Pick: 42-10, Miami. Miami -24.5, Over 48.5
Texas State vs. Texas
Game time: Saturday, 9/5 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Texas opens the season at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium with quarterback Arch Manning entering his second year as the full-time starter. Manning threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns last season and enters 2026 with a deeper receiving room and an offensive line that returns key starters.
Texas State, now in its first season in the Pac-12 under G.J. Kinne, brings a run-and-gun offense that ranked among the nation’s better units in adjusted efficiency last season. The Bobcats’ defense was a bigger issue, finishing outside the top 100 nationally, and that unit hasn’t had an offseason to fully retool.
Texas should jump ahead early and keep the pace up throughout, and Texas State’s offense gives this game a path to points on both sides.
Pick: 52-14, Texas. Texas -29.5, Over 59.5
MORE: Kirk Herbstreit makes 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship pick
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame
Game time: Sunday, 9/6 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Notre Dame opens the season at a neutral site inside Lambeau Field as one of the favorites to reach the College Football Playoff. Quarterback CJ Carr returns after throwing 24 touchdowns against six interceptions as a first-year starter, and the Fighting Irish bring back a defense that finished top-25 nationally in scoring a season ago.
Wisconsin enters under a different kind of pressure. Coach Luke Fickell is in his fourth season without the results to match the hype that came with his hire, and the Badgers are relying on Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph to replace an offense that finished near the bottom of the Big Ten last season.
Notre Dame’s defensive front should limit Wisconsin’s ability to sustain drives, and this shapes up as a game controlled more by one side’s defense than by either offense.
Pick: 49-10, Notre Dame. Notre Dame -20.5, Over 47.5
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