ESPN CFP predictions after Week 11
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With the College Football Playoff determined in a month, the time for teams to bulk up their playoff resume is dwindling. ESPN’s projection models can predict which teams will make the playoff, if people splice the numbers carefully. How much better are the Georgia Bulldogs positioned to make the playoff after their dominant 41-21 win vs. Mississippi State? Here’s the update after Week 11.
Conference champions are determined first, since the conference champions from all Power Four conferences and the highest ranked Group of Five conference champion are guaranteed to make it in. For the Power Four conferences, we look at likelihood of winning the conference. Georgia has a 17.9% of winning the conference, ranking them third in the SEC.
Only one projected conference champion changed. Alabama (8-1, 52.9%), Ohio State (8-0, 48.7%), are projected to win the SEC and Big Ten, respectively. Georgia Tech (8-1, 35.2%) is still projected to win the conference despite an upset loss vs. NC State.
However, the Big 12 has a new favorite. The Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1, 69.5%) are in the drivers’ seat to win the Big 12 due to bludgeoning the BYU Cougars 29-7. As a result, they’re added back into the playoff in these projections.
The losers of each conference championship would be Indiana (10-0, 46.2%), Texas A&M (9-0, 21.8%), Duke (5-4, 19.9%), and BYU (8-1, 18.6%), by this logic.
For at large bids, we use playoff percentage to determine who makes the 12-team field. Indiana (99.8%), Texas A&M (98.9%), Georgia (92.4%), Oregon (8-1, 86.4%), and Ole Miss (9-1, 81.2%), have all stayed in the playoff mix, but the percentage drops significantly from there. Notre Dame (7-2, 48.9%) is added to the mix, while BYU (45.4%) still makes the playoff after their Big 12 championship loss.
The Texas Longhorns (7-2, 45.2%) miss out by just two-tenths of a percentage. That could change if they win against Georgia on Saturday.
The Group of Five team uses both of these percentages. Conference winning percentage is the first qualifier, because a Group of Five team that doesn’t win their own conference is not making the playoff. South Florida (7-2, 42.0%) and James Madison (8-1, 65.6%) both stand out. However, the playoff percentage decides who makes the playoffs. As a result, the South Florida Bulls (39.7%) narrowly eclipse the James Madison Dukes (35.8%) for playoff contention.
In terms of seeding, that’s where we turn to projected record. Georgia has a projected 10.6-1.8 record, giving them the seventh best record in the CFP. As a result, they’d be the No. 7 seed.
There is an exception with this rule. Despite Ohio State projected to win the Big Ten (48.7%), Indiana is still projected to finish with a better record (12.4-0.6) than Ohio State (12.2-0.6). The same can be said for Texas A&M (11.5-1.0) vs. Alabama (11.0-1.9).
In these situations, it’s best to round up or down to see what those decimals would translate to. Ohio State and Indiana would have the same record, by that logic, so Ohio State would be the better seeding since they would’ve beaten Indiana. However, Texas A&M would still ranked above Alabama due to Texas A&M’s record rounding up to 12-1, vs. Alabama’s at 11-2.
For national championship winner, that goes to the team with the highest national championship percentage. Ohio State (25.3%) is still the favorite to win the national championship, defeating the Indiana Hoosiers (24.1%) in a potential Big Ten championship rematch.
ESPN Playoff Projections After Week 11
Seeding
- Ohio State Buckeyes (12.2-0.6)*
- Indiana Hoosiers (12.4-0.6)
- Texas A&M Aggies (11.5-1.0)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (11.5-1.5)*
- Alabama Crimson Tide (11.0-0.9)*
- Ole Miss Rebels (10.6-1.5)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10.6-1.8)
- Oregon Ducks (10.5-1.6)
- BYU Cougars (10.4-2.2)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10.0-2.6)*
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9.7-2.3)
- South Florida Bulls (10.2-2.5)*
First Four Out: Texas Longhorns (8.8-3.3), James Madison Dukes (11.3-1.7) Oklahoma Sooners (8.6-3.4), North Texas Mean Green (11.0-1.8)
*Conference Champions
New teams are italicized.
First Round Matchups
No. 12 USF vs. No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Georgia Tech vs. No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 BYU vs. No. 8 Oregon
Projected National Champion
No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes
This article originally appeared on UGA Wire: ESPN College Football Playoff predictions following Week 11
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