The Good, the Bad, the Ugly: Mountain West FPI
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This week we continue our preview series by taking a look at ESPN’s Football Power Index. FPI is a predictive rating system that was developed by ESPN to measure a team’s strength and determine expected outcomes over the course of the season. Over the next two weeks, we will look at FPI projections for the Mountain West and PAC 12. This week, we are going to take a look at each Mountain West team and evaluate each team’s ability to exceed expectations.
The Good (Championship Contenders)
UNLV (FPI Projected Record 9.0-3.6)
This projection is pretty consistent with other projections for the Rebels and the Vegas expectation for over/under win totals. The Rebels are a pretty clear favorite among most experts, and a manageable schedule gives this team an excellent chance at appearing in their fourth consecutive Mountain West Championship and finally coming out on top. As I have stated in previous articles, the success or failure of this team rests in the hands of transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold. If this offense can continue to perform at a high level, they have an excellent chance to bring home their first conference championship.
Hawaii (FPI Projected Record 7.9-4.5)
The highest projected finish I have seen for the Rainbow Warriors this season has this squad as the second best team in the conference which would result in the Rainbow Warriors making their second appearance in the Mountain West title game. Expectations are the highest they have been in quite some time for this program, thanks in large part to quarterback Micah Alejado. If Alejado can build on the success of his freshman season, Hawaii should have a solid chance at competing for a conference championship.
New Mexico (FPI Projected Record 7.7-4.7)
Jason Eck has turned this program around in a hurry and with that, expectations are very high for the Lobos. ESPN’s FPI gives this team an excellent chance at competing with Hawaii and UNLV for a spot in the conference championship game. The Lobos have an experienced squad and return their starting quarterback (Jack Layne) and their best defensive player (Jaxton Eck). This team should be in prime position to play for a championship this fall.
Air Force (FPI Projected Record 7.2-5.1)
The Falcons are coming off of two consecutive losing seasons, something that hasn’t happened during Troy Calhoun’s tenure in Colorado Springs. ESPN’s FPI expects Air Force to turn things around this season and finish near the top of the Mountain West standing. Explosive quarterback Liam Szarka should be one of the best offensive players in the conference and this squad should have no problem putting up points. The real question is whether this team will be better on the defensive side of the ball.
The Bad (Middle of the Pack)
North Dakota State (FPI Projected Record 6.6-5.6)
This is the lowest projection I have seen for this program. ESPN’s FPI has the Bison as a fringe bowl team. This projection seems low considering their cushy non-conference schedule. It is hard to predict how a team will transition to the FBS level, but if there has ever been a program that is ready to make the move, it is this one. I would be shocked if this team doesn’t win eight games and is in the hunt for a conference championship late in the season.
Wyoming (FPI Projected Record 5.4-6.6)
This projection is pretty consistent with what I have seen and what I expect for the Cowboys. They have the makings of a fringe bowl team. Since Jay Sawvel has taken over as head coach, this program has had one of the worst offenses in the country, a statistic that will need to change if he wants to keep his job. Five or six wins feels right for this team at the moment.
Nevada (FPI Projected Record 4.8-7.3)
This is another projection that is consistent with what I have seen elsewhere. The Wolf Pack should be better and win more games with some of the Mountain West’s top teams gone. How much better and how many more wins remains a mystery. The hope is that young quarterback Carter Jones can build on the experience he gained late last season and emerge as a leader on this team. Like Jay Sawvel at Wyoming, Jeff Choate needs this team to improve mightily if he wants to keep his job into 2027.
The Ugly
San Jose State (FPI Projected Record 5.0-8.0)
Expectations have really fallen for the Spartans as head coach Ken Niumatalolo enters his third season in San Jose. The Spartans were expected to be one of the top teams in the conference last fall after showing improvement in 2024 but ended up finishing near the bottom of the standings. This projection has the Spartans falling short of a bowl game and Niumatalolo’s seat would likely be very hot if that is the case.
Northern Illinois (FPI Projected Record 4.3-7.8)
The Huskies enter the season in a tough situation. They have an interim head coach and a brutal road schedule. This season’s focus should be on the trajectory of this program. Can Rob Harley lead this program into a new era and earn the position of head coach by being competitive in the Mountain West? Or will this team struggle in a more competitive conference? This projection expects it to be a long season for the Huskies, and I have to say I agree.
UTEP (FPI Projected Record 4.1-8.0)
Finishing last is not a surprise for the Miners; that is where most projections have them. But if I’m a Miner fan, I don’t feel that bad about this projection. If UTEP goes 4-8 in their first season in the Mountain West, I would feel pretty good about the future of the program moving forward. They have a tough schedule and some pretty brutal travel they have to overcome. Four wins would be a step in the right direction for this team.
How do you feel about your team’s FPI projection? Will your team exceed expectations? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
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